ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

Gfs really weak

[Alyono]

strong flight level winds being found. May be stronger than 35 kts

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 060328
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 28 20171006
032030 1600N 08308W 8428 01530 0046 +175 +140 188048 049 032 000 00
032100 1600N 08307W 8440 01516 0046 +177 +143 186047 048 034 001 00
032130 1600N 08305W 8428 01530 0048 +175 +141 186048 050 035 000 00
032200 1600N 08303W 8428 01533 0051 +175 +140 186048 049 035 001 00
032230 1600N 08301W 8430 01531 0049 +175 +139 187048 048 035 000 00
032300 1600N 08300W 8428 01533 0050 +179 +139 185046 047 034 000 00
032330 1600N 08258W 8429 01533 0049 +180 +138 186046 047 034 002 00
032400 1600N 08256W 8433 01529 0049 +178 +140 186046 047 034 001 00
032430 1600N 08254W 8432 01531 0051 +177 +142 188047 048 033 001 03
032500 1600N 08253W 8428 01535 0051 +177 +142 190049 050 034 001 00
032530 1600N 08251W 8431 01533 0053 +179 +142 190051 053 032 001 00
032600 1600N 08249W 8431 01533 0054 +176 +136 190054 054 034 001 00
032630 1600N 08248W 8425 01543 0057 +178 +134 190054 054 033 001 03
032700 1602N 08247W 8428 01542 0058 +179 +133 189051 053 /// /// 03
032730 1603N 08248W 8430 01539 0056 +180 +133 190049 051 /// /// 03
032800 1602N 08250W 8432 01532 0054 +177 +139 190048 049 034 000 00
032830 1601N 08251W 8428 01536 0052 +175 +145 189046 048 033 001 03
032900 1601N 08252W 8430 01533 0052 +179 +146 188044 045 034 000 00
032930 1601N 08254W 8428 01535 0050 +178 +144 187043 045 035 001 00
033000 1601N 08255W 8430 01533 0050 +179 +143 186041 042 035 001 00
$$
;

54 kt FL, 35 kt SFMR.

[Javlin]

Gfs really weak

Showing about 38knts @ 30hrs TS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=201

and at 36hrs a serious Fujiwhara don't know if I buy that
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=36

[Alyono]

can we send the GFS straight to hell?

How in the world does it split Nate into two systems?

[SoupBone]

Hmmm, slower and weaker. Wouldn't that give the trough more time to get down to send it further east?

[Aric Dunn]

GFS finally has the interaction with the noname system in a realistic way.. first global model to do so..

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 060339
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 29 20171006
033030 1600N 08257W 8429 01533 0049 +179 +142 188039 041 034 001 00
033100 1600N 08259W 8429 01532 0047 +180 +139 186039 039 034 001 00
033130 1600N 08300W 8431 01530 0047 +181 +138 184039 041 035 000 00
033200 1600N 08302W 8429 01530 0047 +179 +136 184040 040 034 001 00
033230 1559N 08303W 8430 01530 0046 +180 +136 184040 040 034 002 00
033300 1559N 08305W 8433 01525 0046 +177 +139 183041 042 034 001 00
033330 1559N 08307W 8432 01525 0046 +174 +147 182039 042 034 002 03
033400 1559N 08308W 8432 01527 0044 +178 +140 182039 040 035 002 00
033430 1558N 08310W 8432 01524 0044 +177 +139 181038 039 033 000 00
033500 1558N 08311W 8428 01528 0042 +178 +135 181038 039 033 001 00
033530 1558N 08313W 8432 01524 0043 +178 +136 181040 041 033 001 00
033600 1558N 08315W 8428 01527 0043 +174 +137 182039 041 033 000 00
033630 1558N 08316W 8430 01523 0043 +174 +137 184039 040 034 001 00
033700 1557N 08318W 8432 01523 0042 +175 +135 184038 039 033 001 00
033730 1557N 08319W 8429 01522 0043 +172 +140 182037 038 032 001 00
033800 1557N 08321W 8430 01520 0042 +171 +136 180033 036 033 001 00
033830 1557N 08323W 8430 01521 0040 +175 +137 187031 033 031 001 00
033900 1556N 08324W 8426 01526 0043 +168 +142 193034 035 031 001 00
033930 1556N 08326W 8429 01522 0043 +166 +141 192034 035 033 000 00
034000 1556N 08327W 8432 01517 0039 +172 +137 188034 035 029 001 00
$$
;

[Javlin]

GFS finally has the interaction with the noname system in a realistic way.. first global model to do so..

I do not know if it should/will have that much effect?It's small.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS finally has the interaction with the noname system in a realistic way.. first global model to do so..

I do not know if it should/will have that much effect?It's small.

is is actually quite large..

[bella_may]

Well Now we know why the nhc discounts the gfs so much.

[Javlin]

GFS finally has the interaction with the noname system in a realistic way.. first global model to do so..

I do not know if it should/will have that much effect?It's small.

is is actually quite large..

Well I really did not see it till this evening but according to GFS it really makes Nate lopsided.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342

[Aric Dunn]

Well Now we know why the nhc discounts the gfs so much.

yeah, the interaction with noname was reasonable but the odd seperate vorticity is just silly.

[Aric Dunn]

I do not know if it should/will have that much effect?It's small.

is is actually quite large..

Well I really did not see it till this evening but according to GFS it really makes Nate lopsided.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342

It is essentially along with the weakening upper trough that is going to drive this and accelerate it north..

[Alyono]

the convective feedback once again is AWFUL on the GFS

[CrazyC83]

I'd definitely toss this run out. I don't see how that verifies at all.

[galaxy401]

Interesting, the storm did not weaken at all over land. Maybe it was a little stronger when it first made landfall.

[bella_may]

The Gfs was a bit east from its last run, if that means anything

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 060349
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 30 20171006
034030 1555N 08329W 8432 01517 0040 +169 +143 188036 036 030 000 03
034100 1556N 08331W 8449 01501 0044 +164 +145 187037 038 /// /// 03
034130 1557N 08332W 8453 01494 0042 +163 +147 188038 039 034 001 00
034200 1558N 08333W 8433 01515 0043 +160 +147 189036 037 034 001 00
034230 1559N 08335W 8408 01538 0040 +161 +150 186039 041 031 001 00
034300 1600N 08336W 8408 01538 0042 +157 +147 186039 040 031 002 00
034330 1600N 08338W 8376 01570 0044 +155 +144 185039 039 031 000 00
034400 1600N 08340W 8370 01576 0039 +158 +143 183038 039 031 001 00
034430 1600N 08341W 8413 01530 0040 +160 +148 183038 039 030 001 00
034500 1600N 08343W 8430 01510 0039 +160 +145 181038 039 030 001 00
034530 1600N 08345W 8429 01512 0038 +160 +150 179037 038 030 001 00
034600 1600N 08346W 8429 01511 0036 +160 +151 177034 036 030 002 00
034630 1600N 08348W 8429 01510 0035 +160 +154 176033 033 030 002 00
034700 1600N 08350W 8426 01513 //// +156 //// 176032 033 032 002 01
034730 1600N 08352W 8429 01508 0032 +159 +157 172031 032 030 003 00
034800 1600N 08353W 8430 01507 0032 +160 +154 171032 032 030 001 00
034830 1600N 08355W 8430 01506 0027 +166 +150 171032 032 029 000 00
034900 1600N 08357W 8433 01504 0026 +167 +152 171034 035 030 000 00
034930 1600N 08359W 8428 01506 0027 +163 +156 170035 036 028 002 00
035000 1600N 08400W 8433 01500 0026 +164 +157 167034 036 030 001 00
$$
;

[Alyono]

The Gfs was a bit east from its last run, if that means anything

it doesn't. It has 2 areas of vorticity doing a Fujiwara around each other. This, after it develops an even stronger area of vorticity on the Pacific side of Nicaragua