ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Would someone be willing to provide me with a good link to a radar? I'd be appreciative of it.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... n=eyw&MR=1

[eastcoastFL]

In a tornado warning again here in St Lucie. It's coming on shore near St Lucie village in ft Pierce at 951pm

[nutkin517]

Every hurricane or tropical storm I've been through has had plenty of lightning and thunder.

Hurricane thunder always sounds weird to me, more like a quick gunshot than the typical rumbling. The lightning also looks odd, too, kind of a greenish flash.

Comments like this are one of the main reasons I skulk around in here. I learn all kinds of genuinely cool stuff.

When I woke up during the worst of Harvey's landfall in SETX, it was because the lightning looked like someone was turning a flashlight off and on quickly in my window.

[Hurrilurker]

Will recon be flying in throughout the night?

If I'm reading it correctly, they are scheduled to have a plane sample every 3 hours for the next 2 days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[Raebie]

^^^^ is her eye filling in?

Filling in with what? Looks pretty clear to me.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 100147
AF302 2911A IRMA HDOB 12 20170910
013730 2554N 08341W 4492 06670 0314 -091 -167 031027 029 032 000 00
013800 2552N 08339W 4634 06426 0296 -075 -174 020030 030 032 000 00
013830 2550N 08337W 4768 06202 0281 -061 -153 020030 031 032 000 00
013900 2549N 08335W 4916 05965 0266 -053 -098 026029 029 032 000 00
013930 2547N 08333W 5074 05714 0250 -035 -099 028028 029 032 000 00
014000 2545N 08331W 5219 05492 0235 -026 -123 036030 031 032 000 00
014030 2544N 08329W 5370 05262 0219 -011 -095 036032 033 034 000 00
014100 2542N 08328W 5514 05049 9999 +000 -095 036032 033 033 000 00
014130 2541N 08326W 5659 04839 9995 +015 -050 036035 037 034 000 00
014200 2539N 08324W 5809 04628 0020 +013 -032 034038 039 035 000 00
014230 2538N 08322W 5968 04410 0032 +023 -051 039038 039 034 000 00
014300 2536N 08320W 6131 04192 0035 +033 -025 042035 037 035 000 00
014330 2535N 08319W 6295 03977 0034 +045 +008 043034 036 034 000 00
014400 2533N 08317W 6457 03767 0033 +057 +027 044038 039 035 000 00
014430 2532N 08316W 6622 03559 0031 +070 +040 042039 040 034 000 00
014500 2530N 08314W 6788 03355 0031 +083 +045 041040 041 035 000 00
014530 2529N 08312W 6943 03163 0025 +097 +051 047042 043 035 000 00
014600 2528N 08311W 6980 03118 0018 +102 +050 044044 045 035 000 00
014630 2526N 08309W 6964 03133 0020 +099 +047 048045 046 035 000 00
014700 2525N 08308W 6965 03131 0017 +101 +043 047043 044 038 000 00
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

Outer eye wall now solid

[otowntiger]

I'll make a prediction this W wobble results in the track just off or at the edge of the FL W coast at 11pm... JMHO

Everyone's talking about a north or northwestward motion or a north wobble and then I see this??! If I was only reading these threads to find out what the storm was doing and couldn't look at radar or satellite I'd be confused as heck!.

[chaser1]

^^^^ is her eye filling in?

Filling up with what? Looks pretty clear to me.

Skittles!

[stormreader]

lutz florida. just had a 44mph gust. how?? Storm is so far away. Thinking i need to leave right now.

We are getting suprisingly strong winds in St Augustine. I will have to break out my hand held anemometer sooner than expected.

the pressure gradient is pretty intense between Irma and the high. there's going to be some surprising gusts pretty far from the center.

Yeah, been posting about higher gusts, too. Just innate energy of this storm, but you make a very good point. Finally taking a north move away from Cuba. The long term parallel track along the coast may have delayed intensification some. It's further west than expected, but should be a very strong N component now. Irma, like all hurricanes, has a few tricks up her sleeve.

[eastcoastFL]

Not gonna be much sleep tonight with the tornadoes. Had to wake my kids up twice so far to put them in the safe room. My 6yr old son said he's sick and tired of Irma...

[Bocadude85]

If Irma moved due north from her current location she would make landfall in Flamingo in mainland Monroe County(after the Florida Keys), that would be a landfall east of the NHC current track...I'm not sure why people keep saying this stall would result in a farther west track. If Irma moved NNW from her current location she would landfall around Everglades City which would still be east of the NHC track. In my opinion this stall may result in a farther east landfall as the ridge continues to erode and the ULL continues to dig south.

[eastcoastFL]

I'll make a prediction this W wobble results in the track just off or at the edge of the FL W coast at 11pm... JMHO

Everyone's talking about a north or northwestward motion or a north wobble and then I see this??! If I was only reading these threads to find out what the storm was doing and couldn't look at radar or satellite I'd be confused as heck!.

This may add to the confusion but I'm seeing more north than anything with a small drift to the west at the last frame.

[Frank P]

If Irma moved due north from her current location she would make landfall in Flamingo in mainland Monroe County(after the Florida Keys), that would be a landfall east of the NHC current track...I'm not sure why people keep saying this stall would result in a farther west track. If Irma moved NNW from her current location she would landfall around Everglades City which would still be east of the NHC track. In my opinion this stall may result in a farther east landfall as the ridge continues to erode and the ULL continues to dig south.

Does not look due north to me watching 3 different radars and IR... my opinion NW

[caneman]

I'll make a prediction this W wobble results in the track just off or at the edge of the FL W coast at 11pm... JMHO

Geez, thanks. That would take it over my house. Indian Rocks Beach near Clearwater Beach.

[craptacular]

For those looking to follow recon, the next flight is approaching Key West and just dropped down to operational altitude.

[eastcoastFL]

If Irma moved due north from her current location she would make landfall in Flamingo in mainland Monroe County(after the Florida Keys), that would be a landfall east of the NHC current track...I'm not sure why people keep saying this stall would result in a farther west track. If Irma moved NNW from her current location she would landfall around Everglades City which would still be east of the NHC track. In my opinion this stall may result in a farther east landfall as the ridge continues to erode and the ULL continues to dig south.

Does not look due north to me watching 3 different radars and IR... my opinion NW

It's definitely NW. People that are watching are likely not watching as intended as you are and they see a loop that is more north rather than a full length set.

[AdamFirst]

Does not look due north to me watching 3 different radars and IR... my opinion NW

I agree...NW to NNW...I think this current movement would extrapolate towards the Lower Keys west of the 7 Mile Bridge, but east of Key West. Just my opinion.

[meriland29]

For those looking to follow recon, the next flight is approaching Key West and just dropped down to operational altitude.

Thank you . I am reading the recon data but literally don't understand a lick of it.

[Frank P]

per NHC wnw at 7