ATL: MARIA - Models

[emeraldislenc]

Are any models showing a North Carolina hit?

[RL3AO]

As far as mean errors, NHC best at 12 hours but Euro is showing the smallest errors. All of these errors higher than with Irma if I recall correctly.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/NoUKnAw.png[g]

So far the errors are mostly smaller than Irma.

12 hrs




24 hrs




48 hrs

[floridasun78]

Yes it is the NAM. but Since Jose wont be fully tropical and the NAM is pretty decent with synoptics and non tropical I decided to take a look at the NAM for the first time.... if you look back a few runs you will notice a stronger JOSE and weaker ridging and weaker trough out west... THe 12z however is a pretty drastic change. goes with a much weaker jose and less of a 500 mb presence, a slightly more tilted trough out west and stronger ridging built between jose and maria.

add that to the "Tab's" 12z showing the steering collapsing again one might think some of the other models or the members might flop back to a continued wnw track like yesterday again..we will see.

should be a interesting next few days..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=134

lookn like nam showing high building after jose is gone put look like jose dont want leave

[Alyono]

more than enough of a weakness to turn Maria north in the NAM

[Craters]

That makes sense. Then you have to wonder as MW just mentioned without the forcing how is it going to strengthen? There is definately something missing here. we just have to wait a couple days I suppose.

It looks like pure tropical convection and latent heat release. The GFS redevelops a symmetric precip pattern and a full eye in the simulated IR. The cross-sections also show a remarkable increase in temperatures with the core of the storm and a fully developed eyewall with four strong quadrants. That has to be caused by poor SST data.

RL3AO --

Sorry to bring up old posts like this, but I'm trying to catch up, here; things have been more than a little active lately.

In an earlier post (I think it was #988 or #998), you said that the GFS didn't have any coupling with the ocean.That was surprising to read at first, but in thinking about it a little, I could see how adding that coupling would open up a whole new can of worms. Anyway, you mention here that the GFS was using lousy SST data. I guess I'm confused. What constitutes oceanic coupling in the global models? I mean, no pun intended, but how deep does that coupling go in, say, the HWRF as opposed to the GFS? Obviously, the GFS incorporates SSTs, but is heat capacity where it stops?

I guess you can see real fast that there could be a whole slew of followup questions. (How is the heat transfer handled, then, etc.?) The modelers clearly have to establish limits and cutoffs in the detailed physics that goes into the zillion different aspects of the phenomena they're addressing, but it really helps to know what some of those cutoffs are -- like the ocean-atmosphere coupling problem.

Thanks for your time!

Mark

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 30 hrs... Crosses the whole island of PR from E to W... @60 miles W of 06z

[RL3AO]

That makes sense. Then you have to wonder as MW just mentioned without the forcing how is it going to strengthen? There is definately something missing here. we just have to wait a couple days I suppose.

It looks like pure tropical convection and latent heat release. The GFS redevelops a symmetric precip pattern and a full eye in the simulated IR. The cross-sections also show a remarkable increase in temperatures with the core of the storm and a fully developed eyewall with four strong quadrants. That has to be caused by poor SST data.

RL3AO --

Sorry to bring up old posts like this, but I'm trying to catch up, here; things have been more than a little active lately.

In an earlier post (I think it was #988 or #998), you said that the GFS didn't have any coupling with the ocean.That was surprising to read at first, but in thinking about it a little, I could see how adding that coupling would open up a whole new can of worms. Anyway, you mention here that the GFS was using lousy SST data. I guess I'm confused. What constitutes oceanic coupling in the global models? I mean, no pun intended, but how deep does that coupling go in, say, the HWRF as opposed to the GFS? Obviously, the GFS incorporates SSTs, but is heat capacity where it stops?

I guess you can see real fast that there could be a whole slew of followup questions. (How is the heat transfer handled, then, etc.?) The modelers clearly have to establish limits and cutoffs in the detailed physics that goes into the zillion different aspects of the phenomena they're addressing, but it really helps to know what some of those cutoffs are -- like the ocean-atmosphere coupling problem.

Thanks for your time!

Mark

First let me say that I'm not a modeler. Most of my understanding is very simplified. Ocean coupling just means the model has some physics to relate how the top layer of the ocean changes during the model run. So a slow moving hurricane mixes the top layer of the ocean and results in colder water. The HWRF attempts to account for this. The global models don't have ocean coupling because it adds additional calculations that really only matter when you have a slow moving hurricane. 99.5% of global model runs are just fine assuming the sea surface Temps are constant on a day to day basis.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 60hrs ... @50 miles W of 06z... Just N coast of DR... Jose the farthest W it's been in a few runs...

[Blinhart]

I can really start seeing the models turning more West, or stalling completely.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 72hrs ... @50 miles W of 06z... Just N coast of DR, abrupt NW turn begins... Jose the farthest W it's been in a few runs...

[Alyono]

so the GFS goes from moving Jose east to moving it back west

it's like a 20 year time warp. Models handling Jose with a high degree of uncertainty, creating uncertainty with maria long term forecast

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 90hrs ... @50 miles W of 06z... Just NE of SE Bahamas moving NW... Jose the farthest W and weaker and HP a bit stronger between Maria/Lee remnants...

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 96hrs ... @50 miles W of 06z... E of Central Bahamas moving NW... Much stronger HP to the E of Maria...

[Blinhart]

so the GFS goes from moving Jose east to moving it back west

it's like a 20 year time warp. Models handling Jose with a high degree of uncertainty, creating uncertainty with maria long term forecast

Yeah I just don't see Jose being that big for that long up there for another week. If he does stay up there for that long, then there will be massive coastal erosion along the DelMarVa area, and the whole East Coast because of Jose and Maria. Who knows what would happen if some how Maria and Jose decide to merge up where Jose is right now.

[crm6360]

so the GFS goes from moving Jose east to moving it back west

it's like a 20 year time warp. Models handling Jose with a high degree of uncertainty, creating uncertainty with maria long term forecast

Is it really that uncertain? There seems to be a general consensus that Maria will slow down and turn north. The only question is whether she will get pulled out to sea or meander for awhile. Correct me if I'm wrong but modeled heights don't rise enough to push this west even if were to get left behind.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 114hrs ... @50 miles NW of 06z... E of N Bahamas moving NW... Jose weaker than 06z and HP stronger to the E of Maria...

['CaneFreak]

Yeah it appears that the ridge to the east of Maria is going to be the key to the future track of this system. It does appear that the heights are building to the north and east of Maria as a weakening Jose meanders off of the Northeastern US. This run is going to be interesting. I think it is going to stall somewhere between Bermuda and the East Coast with this run.

12z GFS 114hrs ... @50 miles NW of 06z... E of N Bahamas moving NW... Jose weaker than 06z and HP stronger to the E of Maria...

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 132hrs ... @50 miles NW of 06z... A few hundred miles E of Jacksonville... Edit, slow crawl N....

[shaneomac]

I think this run is going track towards Nova Scotia .. the weakness from Jose is going to "lure" Maria to it ... ultimately it will depend on the track of Jose

[gatorcane]

Just goes to show you don't necessarily need a big Eastern CONUS trough to keep the CONUS protected. Jose just blew such a hole in the Bermuda High it cannot connect back with the High over the Great Lakes. It is rare you see such a big High over SE Canada and the Great Lakes.