ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evenstar]

I have to disagree with the NHC in the strongest possible terms about this striking as a category 3 and not a category 4 hurricane. One cannot ignore the signal from the global models or the pressure falls we have seen. I strongly believe this will be a 4 or maybe even a 5 at landfall

Wow that's a bold statement. I have no reason to disagree. I actually agree with you 100% but I'm not a pro...you are.

When one of our Pro Mets makes a bold statement, I become alarmed. The reason I become alarmed is because our Pro Mets are not alarmists.

[CrazyC83]

Doesn't sound like the NHC thinks she is going to strengthen unless she completes another ERC..

it completed already. Plus, the global models show the most intensification AFTER Key West. SHIPS/LGE are being given far too much weight. We saw this last year with Matthew in the Caribbean. You cannot use global models for precise intensity, but you can for the trends

Then why does the NHC confirm it still has a double eyewall structure?

Radar right now suggests the eyewall is nearly back to whole? The inner eyewall is largely gone in the W side, and the E side is merging in.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow. If this track shifts anymore west, Florida may really be dodging a bullet compared to what was thought previously, that is, if it does start to weaken in 24 to 36 hours as the NHC says it will

[bonjourno]

https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_med/latest.jpg

Weather noob here. What's that big line of clouds emanating northeast from Irma? Is that a front of some kind, or related to the tropical system?

[meriland29]

Not sure what to think, especially since this is recon confirmed and they are the ones actually there, we are basing this off of a radar...

[eastcoastFL]

Not sure if I missed this on another advisory but he TS windfield is now 205 miles from the center. So even if she's on the west coast it will bring sustained TS winds to much of the state.

[wx247]

WINK meteorologist is on air saying that the wind representation that the NHC is putting out is overestimated. He does this by showing Key West only having 37 mph sustained winds although his "model" shows they should already be seeing hurricane force gusts. This is very irresponsible.

[HurricaneBelle]

I'm a bit confused by NHC's reasoning in the discussion. They stated because it's slowing down they had to shift the track westward. Wouldn't that give the trof more time to advance east and pick it up before it gets further west?

[RL3AO]

Wow. If this track shifts anymore west, Florida may really be dodging a bullet compared to what was thought previously, that is, if it does start to weaken in 24 to 36 hours as the NHC says it will

If you want Florida to dodge a bullet, then you should want an east shift. A west shift puts Tampa east of the eyewall opening up the possibility of seeing one of America's greatest potential disasters coming to fruition.

[eastcoastFL]

Not sure what to think, especially since this is recon confirmed and they are the ones actually there, we are basing this off of a radar...

I don't think it's recon confirmed. The nhc is saying they are still waiting on recon data.

[ronyan]

Not sure what to think, especially since this is recon confirmed and they are the ones actually there, we are basing this off of a radar...

They caught the tail end of the cycle...

[ApproximateKnowledge]

https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_med/latest.jpg

Weather noob here. What's that big line of clouds emanating northeast from Irma? Is that a front of some kind, or related to the tropical system?

That's the trough is punching a hole for her northward turn. What you're seeing is powerful southwest-to-northeast winds in the upper levels pulling Irma's outflow northeast. For now, it's venting the storm, which could permit strengthening, but she shouldn't survive running headlong into that kind of shear with her core.

[Evil Jeremy]

Friend down in Coconut Creek says it's pretty quiet.

There was a solid hour long window around 8ish where heavy bands moved through the area, with half a dozen tornado warnings issued across SE FL in that span, including a couple in central Broward. It's calm now, but looking at the radar it should pick up again in an hour or so.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm a bit confused by NHC's reasoning in the discussion. They stated because it's slowing down they had to shift the track westward. Wouldn't that give the trof more time to advance east and pick it up before it gets further west?

I think if it slows down the ridge could build back in pushing her further west. I think.

[meriland29]

Not sure what to think, especially since this is recon confirmed and they are the ones actually there, we are basing this off of a radar...

I don't think it's recon confirmed. The nhc is saying they are still waiting on recon data.

"Irma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears
to have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity. An
earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force
reconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near
105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt. The planes have reported
a double eyewall structure, which has also been observed in WSR-88D
Doppler radar data from Miami and Key West. Irma's intensity has
been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower
the winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air
Force mission."

[weathaguyry]

On people's Snapchat videos, you can see that people cracked open a beer when the storm started, one thing leads to another and now there are intoxicated people roaming the streets of Miami at 11:18PM during a hurricane

[PTPatrick]

I could see it becoming a 4 again before landfall and still getting some cheat and dropping back before...it'll be a moot point. The trade off a further west path is more time to strengthen but also more time to weaken.

Edit: and all the more reason why the saffir Simpson scale has probably outlasted its usefulness. I think at this point nhc's move toward breaking up warnings for threat is probably not a bad one but I know saffir isn't going away.

[Alyono]

Doesn't sound like the NHC thinks she is going to strengthen unless she completes another ERC..

it completed already. Plus, the global models show the most intensification AFTER Key West. SHIPS/LGE are being given far too much weight. We saw this last year with Matthew in the Caribbean. You cannot use global models for precise intensity, but you can for the trends

Then why does the NHC confirm it still has a double eyewall structure?

they see a rainband well outside of the eye that has a wind maximum. I'd argue that is NOT a secondary eyewall. It's simply a rainband with hurricane force winds

[ApproximateKnowledge]

Wow. If this track shifts anymore west, Florida may really be dodging a bullet compared to what was thought previously, that is, if it does start to weaken in 24 to 36 hours as the NHC says it will

Not even close. Tampa on the right front of a large, low-pressure Cat 3 would produce extreme storm surge levels in Tampa Bay. Some of the area is vulnerable to 20+ ft surges if the storm comes in at the right angle and, as a former Tampa resident, I can tell you that *nothing* in Tampa is much above 20 feet up.

[Raebie]

Wow. If this track shifts anymore west, Florida may really be dodging a bullet compared to what was thought previously, that is, if it does start to weaken in 24 to 36 hours as the NHC says it will

If you want Florida to dodge a bullet, then you should want an east shift. A west shift puts Tampa east of the eyewall opening up the possibility of seeing one of America's greatest potential disasters coming to fruition.

This. I tried to state earlier.