ATL: IRMA - Models

[wxmann_91]

God help the Antilles and the North (or NW) Gulf Coast looking at this run. If this EURO run were to verify, I'll go on record here and now suggesting that THIS hurricane might ultimatly prove to be one of the single deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Aside from the possibility of Cat 4 or 5 winds impacting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the flooding and potential death toll from the Islands could be unimaginable. Then, to even consider that severe flooding could return to the Gulf coast where levies and dams have already been weakened and compromised, would be a potentially horrific set of circumstances. Fortunately, there's always some level of windshield wipers adjustments to model runs but this particular run might just paint a worse case track scenario.

Georges took a similar path in 1998 and was decidedly not one of the deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Take a deep breath. All range of solutions still on the table.

[chaser1]

Exact track possibilities aside, here is where I become even more particularly interested in how the CMC and U.K. runs continue to trend. Simply to add/subtract GFS model credence given the weight that the GFS wants to attribute to a small upper level cutoff low to weaken the stout ridge, ahead and north of Irma. That solution seems to be the key distinction between the GFS and EURO forecast tracks. I've mentioned in prior posts how this year the sub tropics as well as the mid latitude troughs and cut-off lows seem to be very progressive. Though Irma's core might be fairly compact it seems to appear as a significant sized envelope system. I get the sense (obviously the Euro finds the cut-off as insignificant) that the Easterly surge in association with Irma will simply kick out the cut-off low and thus minimize it's transitory influence on weakening (or "splitting") the ridge to its north. All in all, i would guess that additional data from some extensive Gulfstream sampling would bear a more similar solution once ingested by the GFS. It's NOT a foregone conclusion that the EURO already has a 10 day forecast perfectly pegged, but the "game field" is at least becoming a little more clear of a trend that implies a potentially nasty hurricane will very possibly be making at least one house call - maybe many.

[AxaltaRacing24]

God help the Antilles and the North (or NW) Gulf Coast looking at this run. If this EURO run were to verify, I'll go on record here and now suggesting that THIS hurricane might ultimatly prove to be one of the single deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Aside from the possibility of Cat 4 or 5 winds impacting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the flooding and potential death toll from the Islands could be unimaginable. Then, to even consider that severe flooding could return to the Gulf coast where levies and dams have already been weakened and compromised, would be a potentially horrific set of circumstances. Fortunately, there's always some level of windshield wipers adjustments to model runs but this particular run might just paint a worse case track scenario.

Georges took a similar path in 1998 and was decidedly not one of the deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Take a deep breath. All range of solutions still on the table.

Yes but the reason that run wold be worse if it hit the NW gulf would be due to the fact that Irma would literally kick the area while it's down.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Exact track possibilities aside, here is where I become even more particularly interested in how the CMC and U.K. runs continue to trend. Simply to add/subtract GFS model credence given the weight that the GFS wants to attribute to a small upper level cutoff low to weaken the stout ridge, ahead and north of Irma. That solution seems to be the key distinction between the GFS and EURO forecast tracks. I've mentioned in prior posts how this year the sub tropics as well as the mid latitude troughs and cut-off lows seem to be very progressive. Though Irma's core might be fairly compact it seems to appear as a significant sized envelope system. I get the sense (obviously the Euro finds the cut-off as insignificant) that the Easterly surge in association with Irma will simply kick out the cut-off low and thus minimize it's transitory influence on weakening (or "splitting") the ridge to its north. All in all, i would guess that additional data from some extensive Gulfstream sampling would bear a more similar solution once ingested by the GFS. It's NOT a foregone conclusion that the EURO already has a 10 day forecast perfectly pegged, but the "game field" is at least becoming a little more clear of a trend that implies a potentially nasty hurricane will very possibly be making at least one house call - maybe many.

Excellent post.

[KWT]

Well the GFS still beating the northward track, though it is worth noting that this is the 2nd run where it hasn't sent it right out to sea.

Meanwhile ECM continues to go deeper and deeper into the bowls on the Caribbean.

Such a huge range of model solutions. GDS looks more realistic in terms of strength though that has to be said. As for track, I wouldn't like to say. Th advertised WNW turn didn't happen as per the GFS 12z yesterday, so that maybe somewhat suggestive of this getting further west down the line than the GFS expects.

GFS ensembles still going for a rather large jump NW in the next 24hrs, ECM ensembles much smoother.

[chaser1]

God help the Antilles and the North (or NW) Gulf Coast looking at this run. If this EURO run were to verify, I'll go on record here and now suggesting that THIS hurricane might ultimatly prove to be one of the single deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Aside from the possibility of Cat 4 or 5 winds impacting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the flooding and potential death toll from the Islands could be unimaginable. Then, to even consider that severe flooding could return to the Gulf coast where levies and dams have already been weakened and compromised, would be a potentially horrific set of circumstances. Fortunately, there's always some level of windshield wipers adjustments to model runs but this particular run might just paint a worse case track scenario.

Georges took a similar path in 1998 and was decidedly not one of the deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Take a deep breath. All range of solutions still on the table.

Yes but the reason that run wold be worse if it hit the NW gulf would be due to the fact that Irma would literally kick the area while it's down.

Exactly

[chaser1]

God help the Antilles and the North (or NW) Gulf Coast looking at this run. If this EURO run were to verify, I'll go on record here and now suggesting that THIS hurricane might ultimatly prove to be one of the single deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Aside from the possibility of Cat 4 or 5 winds impacting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the flooding and potential death toll from the Islands could be unimaginable. Then, to even consider that severe flooding could return to the Gulf coast where levies and dams have already been weakened and compromised, would be a potentially horrific set of circumstances. Fortunately, there's always some level of windshield wipers adjustments to model runs but this particular run might just paint a worse case track scenario.

Georges took a similar path in 1998 and was decidedly not one of the deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Take a deep breath. All range of solutions still on the table.

Correct, all range of possibilities ARE on the table. Even an outright GFS solution. Hey, there's been 100's of other hurricanes that struck one or more points on a map over the years. I chose to describe another potential scenario. #1, George's struck P.R. as a Cat. 3 hurricane, not as a Cat 4 or 5 (which to repeat myself and to qualify my prior statement) which I believe to be a real possibility. #2, Simply on the basis of this particular model run (which my post clearly referenced), such a track would seemingly pose a tremendous flood peril to the D.R & Haiti.... as did Georges with the approx. 575 deaths that resulted. #3, Georges' top winds once entering the GOM were 110 mph and I could easily project the potential for Irma to exceed that intensity prior to a potential Gulf Coast landfall. #4, And finally, add a pinch of severely weakened infrastructure, a dash of already flood damaged homes, and a big spoonful of thousands of temporarily housed people and many more simply homeless.... mix it all up, and you have the ingredients for a potentially tragic outcome. Why not take a deep breath and consider THAT possibility.

[Hurricane Andrew]

So help me...if the 06z GFS initializes before I go to bed...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... mName=IRMA

[chaser1]

So help me...if the 06z GFS initializes before I go to bed...

LOL, not yet anyways. Time to kill the lights and hit the pillow. Maybe if we wait till the GFS 12z run instead, by then perhaps someone will tweak it's programming to better grasp that a "west heading" equals 270º, not 290º .

[Hurricane Andrew]

So help me...if the 06z GFS initializes before I go to bed...

LOL, not yet anyways. Time to kill the lights and hit the pillow. Maybe if we wait till the GFS 12z run instead, by then perhaps someone will tweak it's programming to better grasp that a "west heading" equals 270º, not 290º .

My tiredness is up to "what even is a GFS"?

[northjaxpro]

I am trying to not get myself all wound up with these model runs. We are about 3-4 days of Irma approaching the Northeast Carribean potentially.

However, this latest EURO run I have to admit looks extremely worrisome potentially for the islands. For now, our immediate thoughts and concerns should be for them.

I will focus on potential U.S. impacts by this Saturday at the earliest.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Searched long and wide to find this EPS run. Barrels the islands but very different solution
long term too the 00z EC deterministic runs.

[KWT]

ECM ensembles still broadly going for a Florida hit.

There is a split with I'd say about 5 ensemble members doing a GFS type track. Another group head NNW in the Bahamas and the rest pretty much carry on WNW into Florida/Caribbean islands. Operational run is with this 3rd group.

[GCANE]

Watching 9/6 18Z for a surface low to form over Carolinas as a sweeper for Irma.
2nd run GFS has this forming.

[KWT]

Well 06z GFS again is keen on taking this near NW, by 00z today its up at 18N and 34.5W. This is the next benchmark I'm watching for.

Anyway woder where the 06z will go this time, OTS, Ne states again...or somewhere else?

[forecasterjack]

Very large increase in EPS agreement. Few members head OTS (and who knows, may be headed for 0Z GFS madness) and those that do only recurve at 70 or 75W. At that point, you're one vortmax away from 0Z GFS madness. Disagreements arise farther south, Cuba, GOM, SE coast, NE coast all still in play, but the shift towards strong agreement on some part of the US being impacted is notable and concerning IMO

[USTropics]

The trend has been for slight adjustments towards the south over the past few runs:

[GCANE]

Pretty obvious to me that GFS is overdoing intensity forecast.
Irma is going to wrap around a lot of mid-level dry air.
This will keep the lid on the warm-core from getting too warm and strengthening Irma.
Of course this will have a bearing on the track.

[SFLcane]

Though still large disagreement those EPS members got your attention if your in Florida.