ATL: MARIA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

big shift in the euro ! though jose still too strong.

['CaneFreak]

This will help tremendously. Great catch!

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/910212982608625664




HRD/AOML/NOAA ✔ @HRD_AOML_NOAA
The G-IV jet is in route to collect data around Hurricane Maria https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/1 ... ane-maria/ …
2:44 PM - Sep 19, 2017

[znel52]

Euro is making things real interesting this run wow.

[Aric Dunn]

This is very likely to stay away from the east coast. However, with Jose being modeled oddly at times, I'm still gonna be watching for signs of significant westward shifts.

Sometimes I should just shut up.

lol.. nah its hard to deny the models the last 3 days with this north motion let alone the fujiwhara crap. but we both know how sensitive the situation is and it can change to anything still..

[hurricaneCW]

The strong block turns Jose back around and the system essentially becomes a closed like that helps pull Maria in as the ridge builds overhead, this is very similar to how Irma was guided NW once into Florida.

But will the block be strong enough to force these systems all the way into the US? This is all speculative right now anyway but just another option on the table.

[jlauderdal]

This is very likely to stay away from the east coast. However, with Jose being modeled oddly at times, I'm still gonna be watching for signs of significant westward shifts.

Sometimes I should just shut up.

here is the good news, the whole setup is so complex and the models all over the place, they are guaranteed to verify because we have seen everything

[Blown Away]

Euro is making things real interesting this run wow.

Yeah, I think SFL likely gets a pass, but the mid Atlantic still in play...

[chaser1]

Instead of turning NNE to NE this run the Euro takes Maria more N/NNW bringing her a bit closer to the Carolina coast. If the Euro is still overdoing the intensity of Jose like it has in previous runs then that would put Maria dangerously close to the US as the ridge would build in a little stronger than currently modeled.

A subtle trend that I believe will continue to occur. So much so, that I am still projecting a potential significant risk as far south as the S. Carolina coastline. Lots of time between now and then.

[txwatcher91]

NAVGEM with a GIGANTIC shift west. Has the center about 50 miles off the NC coast. Last run it was near Bermuda.

[Aric Dunn]

well the GIV is flying and we will know the extent of the current ridging... if the ridging is stronger this could still go into DR weaken and slow down allowing jose to weaken further and ridging build in.. there are litterally soo many options right now.. its hard not to start going loopy.. just sort of have to sit backand watch for something to make more sense.

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

well the GIV is flying and we will know the extent of the current ridging... if the ridging is stronger this could still go into DR weaken and slow down allowing jose to weaken further and ridging build in.. there are litterally soo many options right now.. its hard not to start going loopy.. just sort of have to sit backand watch for something to make more sense.

Florida is still in play, there's no free pass right now.

[gatorcane]

18z plots. Looks like a pretty certain forecast at least for the next 5 days if not longer. No CONUS threat at the moment and certainly no Florida threat. Best wishes to Puerto Rico though. Looks like it will be BAD for them.

[chaser1]

well the GIV is flying and we will know the extent of the current ridging... if the ridging is stronger this could still go into DR weaken and slow down allowing jose to weaken further and ridging build in.. there are litterally soo many options right now.. its hard not to start going loopy.. just sort of have to sit backand watch for something to make more sense.

Florida is still in play, there's no free pass right now.

naw........ I think i'm comfortable with giving Brownsville Tx. a free pass LOL

[Aric Dunn]

well the GIV is flying and we will know the extent of the current ridging... if the ridging is stronger this could still go into DR weaken and slow down allowing jose to weaken further and ridging build in.. there are litterally soo many options right now.. its hard not to start going loopy.. just sort of have to sit backand watch for something to make more sense.

Florida is still in play, there's no free pass right now.

naw........ I think i'm comfortable with giving Brownsville Tx. a free pass LOL

haha ok ok.. within reason ?

[AutoPenalti]

well the GIV is flying and we will know the extent of the current ridging... if the ridging is stronger this could still go into DR weaken and slow down allowing jose to weaken further and ridging build in.. there are litterally soo many options right now.. its hard not to start going loopy.. just sort of have to sit backand watch for something to make more sense.

Florida is still in play, there's no free pass right now.

naw........ I think i'm comfortable with giving Brownsville Tx. a free pass LOL

Umm, sure why not.

[MGC]

I would not put much stock in any of the model runs until the Gulfstream data is included in the run......MGC

[chaser1]

well the GIV is flying and we will know the extent of the current ridging... if the ridging is stronger this could still go into DR weaken and slow down allowing jose to weaken further and ridging build in.. there are litterally soo many options right now.. its hard not to start going loopy.. just sort of have to sit backand watch for something to make more sense.

Great point Aric, though I'm not betting on Maria remaining far enough to the south to pass over E. Dominican Republic we're also not talking about a radical shift either. There'd have to be some near-term westward shift or building of the high to Maria's north for this to occur I think but its certainly not an unreasonable outcome. This of course could potentially muddy up the waters in terms of a somewhat less deep storm and perhaps a time-frame that just became 18-24 hours further delayed towards the expected Northwest shift in track.

[Hogweed]

Euro over Puerto Rico.





Peak 3 hour gust is at the eastern end of the island at 178 mph slightly earlier.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/pu ... 1200z.html

[chris46n]

Base on the models runs hitting Florida is very very small. So lets move on with that....