ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

May not weaken before Tampa.
1200Z Radiosonde.
Near saturated to 300mb with minimal directional shear.

[miamijaaz]

Wow, I guess a lot of people in SE FL are out of power and poor cell service because there are not that many people on this forum from down there.

I'm on generator power. My house and the houses of all of my family members are without power, from Coral Gables to Pinecrest to Kendall.

[NDG]

Key West Radar down?

Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 27m27 minutes ago

Looks like the Key West radar went down...last update was over 20 minutes ago. #Irma

I don't see that is down.

The latest return from the radar is almost an hour old.

Look at the time stamp, is not down, this loop is from the NWS Key West Radar Site

[KBBOCA]

This is in French, and the windspeeds are in km/h, but it shows how HUGE Irma's windfield is. Wind gustss in Key West & Miami & FLL nearly the same...



https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/ ... 1151550464

[gatorcane]

Indeed, she has been moving east of her projected 11PM and 5AM NHC paths. Is the further east track of the Ukmet vs the other 3 major models at 0Z or at least the somewhat more east 0Z GFS going to end up with a win? I'm now leaning toward the 0Z Euro verifying too far west and Irma making actual landfall somewhere in SW FL as opposed to the runs that had her only skirting the SW coast.This also means a harder hit on SE FL and further up FL. Anyone else's opinion about this and how she has been moving?

Yes more east. I think folks in metro SE Florida are getting quite surprised

[ronyan]

I have updates from the key west radar, not down.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Wow, I guess a lot of people in SE FL are out of power and poor cell service because there are not that many people on this forum from down there.

Fortunately have power in West Palm Beach. My personal weather station reported a gust of 47 mph, but the airport (a few miles to my north) has reported 60. A few brownouts, but still have power. Cell service is slow though.

[funster]

Seems to be getting slowly more and more east of the forecast line. Still has an east component to its movement. That and the fact that Irma has very large windfield is contributing to the strong winds in Miami https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[boca]

I'm in coconut creek on my cell the winds are gusting to 80mph and still have power

[LarryWx]

Indeed, she has been moving east of her projected 11PM and 5AM NHC paths. Is the further east track of the Ukmet vs the other 3 major models at 0Z or at least the somewhat more east 0Z GFS going to end up with a win? I'm now leaning toward the 0Z Euro verifying too far west and Irma making actual landfall somewhere in SW FL as opposed to the runs that had her only skirting the SW coast.This also means a harder hit on SE FL and further up FL. Anyone else's opinion about this and how she has been moving?

I said this about 4 pages ago!

Now I'm thinking Naples landfall.

I agree that there could very well be a landfall at Naples. She is clearly not just wobbling more north. She's almost actually moving straight north.

[ConvergenceZone]

May not weaken before Tampa.
1200Z Radiosonde.
Near saturated to 300mb with minimal directional shear.

If it makes landfall BEFORE Tampa, that should definitely weaken it. But nobody knows how much it would weaken at this point.

[ronyan]

May not weaken before Tampa.
1200Z Radiosonde.
Near saturated to 300mb with minimal directional shear.

If it makes landfall BEFORE Tampa, that should definitely weaken it. But nobody knows how much it would weaken at this point.

It should be substantially weaker if it makes landfall as far south as Naples.

[KBBOCA]

More on Miami flooding. the pic I posted earlier was from Brickell Key:

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 7m7 minutes ago

John Morales Retweeted NBC News

Storm surge in Biscayne Bay and up the Miami River. 4-6' forecast has been revised to 3-5'. But you can see river spilling into Brickell Key

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906886147258949632






And then this too:

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 5m5 minutes ago

It's already officially over 3 feet, but having lived in that area I believe it's closer to 4 feet for communities around Biscayne Bay



Area near 79th street submerged:

 https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/906885705128869888

[AdamFirst]

 https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/906886573937057792

[KBBOCA]

Mark Sudduth - Miami live webcam

Live cam from my hotel here in Miami – this will be on for about another hour or so. http://ustre.am/7kSh

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/906888027133411328

[Michele B]

Indeed, she has been moving east of her projected 11PM and 5AM NHC paths. Is the further east track of the Ukmet vs the other 3 major models at 0Z or at least the somewhat more east 0Z GFS going to end up with a win? I'm now leaning toward the 0Z Euro verifying too far west and Irma making actual landfall somewhere in SW FL as opposed to the runs that had her only skirting the SW coast.This also means a harder hit on SE FL and further up FL. Anyone else's opinion about this and how she has been moving?

Yes more east. I think folks in metro SE Florida are getting quite surprised

Well, they're mostly getting surprised by the fact that this thing has pummeled them! They thought since it was west, they were going to get nothing!

This is what happens when you're not familiar with hurricanes.

Also - and I think this is going to become my PERSONAL CAMPAIGN....the "line" that shows the track of the hurricane should be waaay THICKER. The "cone" does not show people how large a storm is. It just says, "Might come in somewhere in the cone...."

But the "line" makes people complacent. They see the "line" waaay over on top of I-75, or 41, so they think that's the only place where effects will be felt. That needs to change to educate people better.

[KBBOCA]

John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 3m3 minutes ago

South Florida

Wind threat: Extreme
Surge threat: Extreme
Tornado threat: Moderate

Flood threat: now Extreme. 12 to 20 inches possible.

[JPmia]

Reporting in from Fort Lauderdale.. winds are progressively getting stronger sustained and more frequent gusts. Thankfully I still have power. My front door is rattling and being sucked in and out by the howling winds. Quite the ride here this morning. And to see it wobble NNE/N on radar is very concerning.

[KBBOCA]

This is a TAMPA pro Met, not NHC, talking about possible new landfall point....

Paul Dellegatto FOX‏ Verified account @PaulFox13 6m6 minutes ago

#Irma about 20 miles east of #NHC forecast point. Small change in track means big change in landfall point. Looks south. Bonita Springs area

 https://twitter.com/PaulFox13/status/906887801505042432

[ronyan]

Cranes should not be falling in these winds for Miami. Probably did not take proper steps to secure that.