ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[decgirl66]

Tornado warning in Brevard county till 11:30am. But is seems so quiet outside! Eeery!

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/RLuettich/status/906896240205582336




Some of the worst surge won't be until AFTER the eye passes, heads up.

[funster]

Recent line shift evident on S. FL water management site https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Not the cone obviously but if it follows the line or close to it will be a little more inland in some locations of west Florida.

[KBBOCA]

WOW WOW WOW. Look at these LOW LOW LOW water levels in Naples. Terrifying in terms of the SURGE that will follow the eye!

Eric Blake ‏Verified account @EricBlake12 21m21 minutes ago

The water level in Naples #Florida is extremely low as offshore flow pushes water out, but the sea will rapidly rise as #Irma passes!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/906891994189975552

[PTPatrick]

Well it looks like a nice north right hook at the last minute saved key west from the eastern Eyewall. I would imagine they will certainly have a reat deal of damage in KW but probably not as bad as I initially imagined. Doubt the jog east helped them much with surge and I'm sure they are getting from the back side now too like Wilma. Sounds like any benefit KW got was to big pine and Marathon's detriment.

Meanwhile, she ain't looking much like a 4 on radar. Looks like 11 am has her same wind but higher pressure. She is definitely starting her decay but it's not going to help the west coast with surge. regardless if it landfalls at Naples as a 4, there is going to major structure damage. Perhaps not razed like charley did punta gorda , but it'll be bad and Naples will receive eyewall and it's more built up/populated.

[KBBOCA]

And SE FL is in on the surge too:

NHC_Surge‏Verified account @NHC_Surge 20m20 minutes ago

An @noaaocean station at Virginia Key is reporting 3.1 ft MHHW (inundation), surpassing its previous record of 2.6 ft set during Wilma

[TheStormExpert]

They going to stick with it..probably just saw it was still in the cone if it doesnt get back on track ...

This track just shows how much faith they have lost for the GFS.

[KBBOCA]

Todd Kimberlain‏ @ToddKimberlain 18m18 minutes ago

Storm surge flooding of 1-2 ft along the #Miami River just west of downtown. #HuricaneIrma #Irma #Flwx #Irma2017

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/906893227881586688

[wxman57]

Just finished the Irma advisory. I think the NHC track is a good bit too far west. Center may move inland south of Naples this afternoon, barring any west wobble.

Any of you have a link to any live webcams that are still working? Anything from the chasers? Haven't had a chance to look around.

[KBBOCA]

Interesting Juxtaposition of the water levels at Virginia Key (Biscayne Bay) with the levels in Naples right now:

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/906893341513666560

[mpic]

Just finished the Irma advisory. I think the NHC track is a good bit too far west. Center may move inland south of Naples this afternoon, barring any west wobble.

Any of you have a link to any live webcams that are still working? Anything from the chasers? Haven't had a chance to look around.

Some of this are working
http://www.earthcam.com/events/extremeweather/

[KBBOCA]

Tampa Bay waters being pushed out:

#Tampa Bay is being pushed out right now, as soon as those winds change that water is going to surge back in! #Irma

 https://twitter.com/WeatherKait/status/906892683490287617

[johngaltfla]

The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours
and the initial motion estimate is about 350/8 kt. Irma is embedded
within a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone
is expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward
speed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This
will take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the
southeastern United States over the next couple of days. The track
guidance remains fairly tightly clustered with the ECMWF track a
little to the left and slower than the other models. The official
track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF
solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official
forecast.

from 11 AM discussion..
SAY WHAT???

Well, NHC has responded with a slight adjustment east of thirvprevious official track. So, essentially, Irma's center will move a bit closer up the spine of the peninsula. Areas like Orlando, Ocala, and Gainesville will get a bit closer to Irma's center if this shift east continues.

My money is it goes up I-75 then stalls out at Hwy 54 due to an accident on the off ramp. (why not, it backs up everything else)

[StormingB81]

]

They going to stick with it..probably just saw it was still in the cone if it doesnt get back on track ...

This track just shows how much faith they have lost for the GFS.

True but I guess the next several hours will tell us...even still I think it will stay within the cone

[tolakram]

Just finished the Irma advisory. I think the NHC track is a good bit too far west. Center may move inland south of Naples this afternoon, barring any west wobble.

Any of you have a link to any live webcams that are still working? Anything from the chasers? Haven't had a chance to look around.

https://www.periscope.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1MnGnmNQrAyKO?

[CronkPSU]

it still looks like it is moving a lot closer to north than NW just like UKMET and GFS said it would to me...would take it straight up the everglades

[lisa0825]

Just finished the Irma advisory. I think the NHC track is a good bit too far west. Center may move inland south of Naples this afternoon, barring any west wobble.

Any of you have a link to any live webcams that are still working? Anything from the chasers? Haven't had a chance to look around.

https://www.periscope.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1MnGnmNQrAyKO

[TheStormExpert]

Just finished the Irma advisory. I think the NHC track is a good bit too far west. Center may move inland south of Naples this afternoon, barring any west wobble.

Any of you have a link to any live webcams that are still working? Anything from the chasers? Haven't had a chance to look around.

So with these east adjustments what should we expect from here on out in West Palm Beach?

[northjaxpro]

Just got a wind gust to 41 mph in the past few minutes. Tropical storm wind gusts have begun here already.

I have received 5.5 inches of rainfall so far just with the present nor'easter ahead of Irma.

Irma's outer rain bands have yet to impact Northeast Florida. That will be later today into tonight. Expecting another 6-8 inches of rain when Irma finally Gogh finished her nasty trek here and gets out of here by Tuesday morning, on top of what I have already received.

[NDG]

Irma's pressure is rising.

150700 2505N 08136W 6963 02582 9330 +178 +134 070016 021 006 001 03
150730 2507N 08138W 6971 02580 9330 +187 +131 064034 040 025 001 00