ATL: MARIA - Models

[chaser1]

Base on the models runs hitting Florida is very very small. So lets move on with that....

I see few models suggesting a D.R. landfall either. Would it please you to discount that as well?

[ChucktownStormer]

Base on the models runs hitting Florida is very very small. So lets move on with that....

These are computers. They are only as good as the data in them. The data changes often and so do the models.

Why do we never learn our lesson?

[floridasun78]

Euro over Puerto Rico.





Peak 3 hour gust is at the eastern end of the island at 178 mph slightly earlier.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/pu ... 1200z.html

poor Puerto Rico

[AutoPenalti]

Base on the models runs hitting Florida is very very small. So lets move on with that....

Okay, you seem to know the future so I'll see to you on that.

[floridasun78]

Base on the models runs hitting Florida is very very small. So lets move on with that....

Okay, you seem to know the future so I'll see to you on that.

one my met in miami watching it still

[boca]

It's always good to watch this but I'm feeling good about this staying away from Florida but my prayers are with the people of the islands down there.

[chaser1]

What kind of crack is CMC on LOL?? With Jose darting Southeastward to about 30N it has reversed the storms putting Maria really close to the coast and Jose well to her east. Maybe it'll send Jose back to Africa with time . On another note, other than the CMC seemingly still wanting to re-develop Lee, I'm not seeing the model (or any other for that matter) really continuing to crank out more T.C.'s. 'Course, that'll change in a hurry but a breather should would be nice. My 18/11/4 pre-season prediction isn't looking too bad (I think we're presently at 13/7/4) if we go out 5/4/0 from here. From where we stand now though...... i'm beginning to think that we're more likely to exceed that though.

[chris46n]

Florida has never in the cone at all...... will past at least 300 miles east of Florida.

[gatorcane]

Big shift EAST by the NAM with noticeably less ridging at 54 hours. Has flight data been entered into this run of the NAM? That is a pretty big shift (yeah I know it is the NAM).

[gtalum]

Florida has never in the cone at all...... will past at least 300 miles east of Florida.

I'm not that confident at this point, but it would be a massive failure on the part of the NHC if the eventual path isn't well east of FL.

[northjaxpro]

It's always good to watch this but I'm feeling good about this staying away from Florida but my prayers are with the people of the islands down there.

Amen. Praying for the people in Puerto Rico . God be with them!!! Godspeed!!

[NJWxHurricane]

going to be watching this one very closely here on the shore

[Aric Dunn]

Big shift EAST by the NAM with noticeably less ridging at 54 hours. Has flight data been entered into this run of the NAM? That is a pretty big shift (yeah I know it is the NAM).

it is becasue this run it turns jose back south and never weakens jose.. lol

the gulfstream only took 3 hours ago.. little to no data..

[Evil Jeremy]

Can't imagine GIV data is in yet, flight is still in progress and by my look they haven't sampled much of the environment yet.

I'm still of the mind that this won't be an issue for Florida, but further north is absolutely in play. Unless anything changes with the 00z run, with the GIV data, it would take one of the biggest model mess ups we've ever seen to bring this to Florida.

[Ken711]

I've been afraid the Outer Banks,NC and Mid-Atlantic were always a likely outcome once the models stopping giving some much influence to Jose. Now the question is will it be a Cat 2 or Cat 3+ major hit. I think the other models like CMC/NAVGEM/Euro have already starting discounting that, and the others models will start a shifting east further over the coming days.

[AdamFirst]

I have plans this weekend. Driving to Melbourne. Would rather not have to cancel those plans due to unforeseen major hurricane.

I don't have as bad a feeling about this storm in relation to Florida as I did with Irma. Still a terrible situation for the islands, lest we forget in our state-casting hubbabaloo.

Will have to see what the G-IV flights bring to the table as well.

[gtalum]

Can't imagine GIV data is in yet, flight is still in progress and by my look they haven't sampled much of the environment yet.

I'm still of the mind that this won't be an issue for Florida, but further north is absolutely in play. Unless anything changes with the 00z run, with the GIV data, it would take one of the biggest model mess ups we've ever seen to bring this to Florida.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked to see the track shift west enough to threaten somewhere from NC north.

[floridasun78]

Can't imagine GIV data is in yet, flight is still in progress and by my look they haven't sampled much of the environment yet.

I'm still of the mind that this won't be an issue for Florida, but further north is absolutely in play. Unless anything changes with the 00z run, with the GIV data, it would take one of the biggest model mess ups we've ever seen to bring this to Florida.

so my weatherman could say no issue for fl he say on last night we need watch it

[tpinnola]

Any threat to New England? The 12z Euro brings it pretty far north. Probably too far out to tell.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Any threat to New England? The 12z Euro brings it pretty far north. Probably too far out to tell.

In all honesty, it is too early to tell right now.