ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Fox news reporting they have word from officials that Monroe County is "closed until further notice." Residents are not going to be allowed back in any time soon. No further Info was given he said, but that additional word would be forthcoming. Hope that just means time is needed to assess damage. ..

One news report said there are 800 islands in the Florida keys.
How many islands will be left ?

.

ALL of them! Only they'll be called "reefs."

lol

[stormreader]

Lightning and velocities increasing in the eyewall - one final round of strengthening or just frictional convergence that isn't related to the intensity?

Might just be frictional convergence---but nevertheless, gusts will be extreme IMO

[KBBOCA]

It's been brutal since about 6am here in Sunrise. Hard to get any radar loops to load up Bc the cell internet is just so slow right now . How much longer should Broward county be experiencing TS type conditions ?

John Morales in Miami noted hurricane now abeam of Miami, so Miami will just be moving out of NE quadrant of storm... you probably have another couple of hours, I'd guess.

[RL3AO]

At least 10 chasers reporting their location on Marco Island. I hope they survive.

[bob rulz]

Where is Jeff?

Jeff is here: https://www.google.com/search?q=26%C2%B004%2725.3%22N+81%C2%B042%2759.3%22W&oq=26%C2%B004%2725.3%22N+81%C2%B042%2759.3%22W

Is that high enough to be away from storm surge?

He is so exposed in that location. I thought he said he was going to try to find something more secure, lol

[Ptarmigan]

Lightning and velocities increasing in the eyewall - one final round of strengthening or just frictional convergence that isn't related to the intensity?

Might just be frictional convergence---but nevertheless, gusts will be extreme IMO

Friction can increase gust by factor of 1.4 to 1.6. If there is 100 mph sustained winds, it can gust as high as 140 to 160 mph.

[PandaCitrus]

If they are on Marco island, I hope they are in a well constructed building on the 4th floor.

[Michele B]

How bad is Broward getting hit right now?

Well, they just reported that Parkland (extreme NW section of Broward) just had a gust of 70 mph

[nutkin517]

Why is it saying this is the most intense hurricane to make landfall since Katrina? Harvey was a cat 4 at landfall. Katrina was a 3.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/JenniferLocal10/status/906955743882072066

[KBBOCA]

NWS Key West‏Verified account @NWSKeyWest 3m3 minutes ago

3pm - Here are current observations from the Keys and South Florida. Winds still gusting 50-70mph across the Keys.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJYnGzpUIAAq8Kg.jpg

[galaxy401]

Why is it saying this is the most intense hurricane to make landfall since Katrina? Harvey was a cat 4 at landfall. Katrina was a 3.

By intense, they mean pressure wise. Irma has a lower pressure than Harvey did.

[ronyan]

Why is it saying this is the most intense hurricane to make landfall since Katrina? Harvey was a cat 4 at landfall. Katrina was a 3.

The official first landfall happened at key cudjoe earlier this morning when the winds were 130 mph cat 4. Irma had a lower pressure at that time than Harvey.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/EricFincher/status/906955938233548800

[jasons2k]

This was sent to me about an hour ago from Jeff Lindner. Sorry about the delay:

Devastating hurricane pounding S FL.

Irma made landfall over the lower FL Keys early this morning as a category 4….Irma is now the second category 4 hurricane to strike the US coastline in 16 days…pre Harvey…the US coast went over 4550 days without a major hurricane landfall.

Devastating storm surge has occurred over the FL Keys….limited data flow out of the middle Keys indicates at least 15 ft has swept over the middle Islands. It appears that all of the FL Keys have gone under water. A wind gust of 120mph was recorded at Pine Key before the instrument failed. Miami has been gusting between 80-100mph for several hours.

Significant storm surge flooding is currently breaching the west end of the Miami River in portions of Downtown Miami where intense 60-80mph winds are forcing the river over its western seawalls. Storm surge is reported nearly neck deep in some portions of Miami near the Miami River…interestingly this area was not expected to see much storm surge…so some kind of local terrain and wind induced surge is causing a local piling of the water and significant flooding.

Massive blow down (pulling of water away from the coast) is in progress along the entire W coast of FL with tides running 5-6 feet below normal. As Irma moves NNW up the coast and winds turn onshore a large and destructive storm surge will overrun much of these areas…sea water will rise nearly 10-15 feet in a matter of 1-2 hours.

Current radar tracking of Irma’s center has it making a final landfall near Marco Island and Fort Myers this afternoon. The intense northern eyewall is only about 40 miles SSE of Naples, FL.

A life threatening storm surge of 10-15 feet above the ground is likely along the SW FL coast from Everglades City northward to Fort Myers and Port Charlotte and 5-10 ft above the ground north of Fort Myers to the mouth of Tampa Bay.

[weunice]

"Intensity" has to do with pressure. What was Harveys pressure at landfall?

[Ptarmigan]

Why is it saying this is the most intense hurricane to make landfall since Katrina? Harvey was a cat 4 at landfall. Katrina was a 3.

It has to do with central pressure. Intensity is not only measured in terms of wind, but also central pressure. Katrina had central pressure of 920 millibars on Louisiana and 928 millibars on Louisiana.

[kranki]

I evacuated from the Keys for Hurricane Georges. They did not let us back in for several days, because the main power lines were down on US 1. I came back to a looter and got him off the property. We later rebuilt to 160mph specs, got a big generator and stayed for the next ten years without much incident. We were by one of the large bridges and that made a lot of difference. Cudjoe constantly flooded because their bridges blocked the surge flow.

[Steve]

What is reason for Tampa Bay and Venice beaches, losing water at its shores? Is it coming back in like a Tsunami?

Counterclockwise flow blowing from the east along north of center west facing beaches = drives the water out. Once the eye passes to the north, the flow is out of the southwest. It's not going to be a tsunami. It's going to be storm surge. Water will come up fast, but it's not gonna be a tidal wave of all at once. It can probably come up higher than normal in places before the SW flow eases and water levels balance out to normal.

[KBBOCA]

Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago

Naples is up next for the eyewall, then Bonita Beach area. #Irma

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906956441294163968