ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS at hour 90 has a major hurricane about to make landfall, down to 955mb.

[ROCK]

I think I said worst case scenario for any MET..we lack good intensity models..going to have a shift in models North..

[ROCK]

00z GFS at hour 90 has a major hurricane about to make landfall, down to 955mb.

Yep mid Texas coast

[Alyono]

GFS cat 3 into the middle TX coast

[hd44]

Models adjusting towards my full blown hurricane idea.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hrs 72-96

[NotSparta]

Another run, another shift north it seems with models on this storm

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS is a cat 4 making landfall over middle Texas:

[Stormcenter]

Now who said LA. was completely in the clear? This is not a good trend for anyone, might be worth staying up for EURO.

[stormhunter7]

[SoupBone]

GFS further north and depicting a hurricane at 78hrs, yikes.

I don't get it at all, but either one or more of these models will shine and come out king, or will miserably bust.

[ROCK]

Bad ugly devestating run..not over a major city like Galveston / Houston but any deviation north and wow...

[Kingarabian]

The GFS run at 00z takeaways:

1. The GFS continues to shift North meaning the models still have a bad handle on the steering pattern.

2. The GFS continues to only show intensification until the system is 24 hours away from landfall, although it did begin strengthening the system a tad bit earlier.

[sphelps8681]

Now who said LA. was completely in the clear? This is not a good trend for anyone, might be worth staying up for EURO.

I am going to try not sure if I will make it. This is going to be quite a night!!

[Kingarabian]

I'll be back after dinner to post the 00z Euro.

[Wx_Warrior]

Recon scheduled for tomorrow.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The models still going north, and trending stronger. That is not a good sign.

[SoupBone]

Bad ugly devestating run..not over a major city like Galveston / Houston but any deviation north and wow...

looks to go right over Port O'Connor/Matagorda area.

[weatherguy425]

While I think anyone along the northwestern and western Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on this, it is worth noting the similarities between GFS's 18Z & OZ runs. Shift northward was much more subtle. Must also keep model resolution in mind.

[Steve]

Well this is the farthest the NAM has been east and seems plausible IMO. Steering collapses ULL and trof create the weakness. Though it's the NAM it is the trof that it stills showing digging.

It could make sense if there was a time delay. But like I said, it just seems out of range. I admittedly only have my own experiences to go on with NAM and have no idea on its verification down that way. But it seems that when anything is that far down and the NAM is sort of the outlier, you have to mostly discount it. Certainly that could be a different if it was tracking something 250 miles farther north. But with South Texas giving the TVCN and not really all that much time - 4 days max I think - that's the way I'd lean for now. Wilacy or Kenedy Co. would probably be best case because of how sparsely populated those areas are as compared to the major TX coastal cities.