ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Big Easy Breeze]

12 z nam shifted to Baldwin county landfall. I mean it's the nam, but still. Depicts a pretty lopsided mid range TS looking thing at 980s MLB...nothing to write home about.

First landfall SELA; skirting over to the Bama coast. Not a straight line shot to Baldwin.

[stormlover2013]

guys models are pretty consistent u won't see anything shift really big shift from here on out

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looking at anywhere from Tropical storm to Cat 2.


Katrina was a Cat 2/3 at landfall..no?

Katrina was a high-end Cat 3 when it made landfall. I doubt Nate will get that strong, however.

Thanks. i knew weakened a bit but i could not remember what category

[SoupBone]

I am an old timer that lurks and appreciate the info. I don’t post a lot but NATE has my interest since I am across the bay from Mobile on the Eastern Shore. Don’t know what to expect from this one. The area is prepare where I live. Still under Tropical Storm Warning and the weather is beautiful here. Hard to believe that a storm is on its way. While I am ok with my two daughters (live alone), my oldest is in Birmingham at college (first year) and I am a little worry about her. Can anyone tell me what Birmingham is going to get from NATE. I do have James Spann on my computer but you know that worried mom feeling. Interested to hear if Birmingham will get weather? I know we are on the coast. Been through my share in my almost 50 years.

Assuming Nate moves inland on the MS coast near Gulfport, the Mobile Bay area may see southerly winds 30-40 mph with higher gusts when Nate moves ashore prior to sunrise on Sunday. You could see 3-5 inches of rain as well. Tides at the mouth of Mobile Bay may run about 3 feet above normal Sunday morning. Northern parts of Mobile Bay could see tides around 5 ft above normal.

Over in Birmingham, max winds 20-25 mph. Possibly heavy rain there during the day on Sunday (3-5 inches). Nate will weaken quite rapidly as it races NE across Alabama during the day on Sunday. It may not have any more tropical storm force winds near the center by the time it crosses the Mississippi/Alabama border.

What are your thoughts on New Orleans? If it tracks that far east, they may see minimal rain/winds? At this point, those subtle changes are huge for certain areas.

[Bamagirl2408]

Did they update anything but coordinates?

No. No reason to make any changes. Models are in very good agreement.

Im in Mobile. Best guess on east trend going east of here or should we expect MS landfall and bearing the brunt?

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS showing some rapid deepening approaching landfall

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 061324
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 06/13:03:40Z
B. 18 deg 10 min N
084 deg 44 min W
C. 850 mb 1407 m
D. 41 kt
E. 067 deg 16 nm
F. 158 deg 49 kt
G. 053 deg 48 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 18 C / 1524 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0516A NATE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 52 KT 151 / 64 NM 11:20:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 215 / 9 KT


URNT12 KNHC 061511
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 06/14:51:30Z
B. 18 deg 39 min N
084 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 36 kt
E. 124 deg 46 nm
F. 185 deg 46 kt
G. 129 deg 84 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 18 C / 1526 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0516A NATE OB 20
MAX FL WIND 49 KT 089 / 50 NM 12:47:00Z

[caneman]

guys models are pretty consistent u won't see anything shift really big shift from here on out

Just simply not true. N.O. was under the gone not too long ago. Now Alabama. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pensacola to Panama that kind of shift would make MS and LA. Relatively free of much impact.

[stormlover2013]

GFS has new orleans written all over it.... on the 12z run

[Ivanhater]

12z gfs is east of Nola curving NE toward Mobile

[wxman57]

What are your thoughts on New Orleans? If it tracks that far east, they may see minimal rain/winds? At this point, those subtle changes are huge for certain areas.

Obviously, the exact path of Nate across SE LA will be critical as far as New Orleans. In addition, Nate's structure will be a big factor. Nate will be accelerating NE as it passes New Orleans, with moderate SW winds aloft. This should push most of Nate's squalls east of the track (east of New Orleans). However, no guarantee of that. New Orleans could see 3-5 inches of rain or they may see under an inch. Wind-wise, no hurricane force winds west of the track. New Orleans may see 35-45 mph sustained wind with gusts 60-65 mph (current forecast track). Power outages but no significant structural damage. Again, this assumes Nate doesn't wobble back west and move inland west of the city.

[GBPackMan]

Did they update anything but coordinates?

No. No reason to make any changes. Models are in very good agreement.

Im in Mobile. Best guess on east trend going east of here or should we expect MS landfall and bearing the brunt?

Even 48+ hours out the models are in very close agreement, much more so than Irma and others this year. When so many are in agreement, landfall will be determined more by a last minute wobble than an overall track shift. I predict (in my opinion) that it will skirt the Louisiana islands and make landfall right along Mobile bay. Granted this will be a weak Cat 1 (below 90mph) but as we know, the bays and bayous are a bit more prone to flooding in this area (as designed by nature). Stock up a little extra if you didn't from Irma...
A wobble could span anywhere from Biloxi to Pensacola.

[FLpanhandle91]

Honestly, conditions in northwest Florida could be worse than Mobile if the a MS landfall verifies. The storm is and will be substantially lopsided with the heaviest winds and rain being so far east.

[Rocketman]

So I heard Cantore is in town (Biloxi). He must've forgotten, we told him never to come back here, he's bad luck.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Call it a feeling or whatever, but I feel like this storm could still reach or come close to major hurricane status just before landfall. Just my opinion, and not driven by science.

[wxman57]

Did they update anything but coordinates?

No. No reason to make any changes. Models are in very good agreement.

Im in Mobile. Best guess on east trend going east of here or should we expect MS landfall and bearing the brunt?

The exact timing of the NE turn prior to landfall has always been uncertain. It is possible that the center could move ashore as far east as the MS/AL border. Can't rule that out. It's possible it could track west of New Orleans (not far west), too.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

[GBPackMan]

Honestly, conditions in northwest Florida could be worse than Mobile if the a MS landfall verifies. The storm is and will be substantially lopsided with the heaviest winds and rain being so far east.

I was thinking the same thing, with no real eyewall yet, the bulk of the bad stuff is a bit further out from the low meaning Pcola to Panama City could see the worst of the rainfall at least... Still, in this area 6-10" would bring temporary flooding before being soaked up an hour later. Now if FWB and Okaloosa county would update the drainage system in FWB, the flooding in town would be minimized.

[AJC3]

Gang, two things.

1. Please keep the non-model posts over in the discussion thread.

2. When you summarize what a model solution shows, be accurate. For instance, the 12Z NAM does not show a SELA landfall (it misses Pass a Loutre to the SE by about 15 miles), and the 12Z GFS does not have NOLA written all over it (it moves over Buras, heading NE toward a second landfall along the MS coast). Thanks.

[wxman57]

Honestly, conditions in northwest Florida could be worse than Mobile if the a MS landfall verifies. The storm is and will be substantially lopsided with the heaviest winds and rain being so far east.

I was thinking the same thing, with no real eyewall yet, the bulk of the bad stuff is a bit further out from the low meaning Pcola to Panama City could see the worst of the rainfall at least... Still, in this area 6-10" would bring temporary flooding before being soaked up an hour later. Now if FWB and Okaloosa county would update the drainage system in FWB, the flooding in town would be minimized.

Remember when Cindy moved ashore near the TX/LA border - the heaviest rain was into the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. This isn't the same weather pattern, though. With Cindy, we had a tremendous plume of moisture moving into the coast well east of the center. Still, a feeder band could set up into the FL Panhandle on Sunday.