ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Not really a surprise the Euro is showing this heading into BOC-Mexico. That has been a pretty typical path for BOC storms going back the last 7 seasons. Still not certain that will be the outcome or whether this develops (though it is looking better than 99L for development).

I have a question..... What do theverything 12Z Euro Esembles show ???? For 90L

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not convinced the Euro is initializing the system well. It shows it developing from a naked swirl just off the coast of South America. I think it will be closer to the convection currently tracking across the Caribbean. Confidence in its track still remains low.

100% agreement from me (.gif attached below to illustrate what you're talking about). The run makes no sense, IMO:

[Hammy]

GFS trending towards having the low in the Pacific rather than Gulf.

[Alyono]

GFS trending towards having the low in the Pacific rather than Gulf.

trending stronger in the BOC again this run

[stormreader]

Heavy T-storms overland and in Venezuelan coastal waters seem to be migrating offshore and over that small swirl that we have seen.

[stormreader]

I'm not convinced the Euro is initializing the system well. It shows it developing from a naked swirl just off the coast of South America. I think it will be closer to the convection currently tracking across the Caribbean. Confidence in its track still remains low.

You may be right, but just looked at sat pic and it seems as though that swirl in coastal waters is being covered now with heavy t-storms.

[tropicwatch]

Been watching that area the past couple of hours. Have to wait and see if the convection continues to build with the rotation offshore.

[Nimbus]

There is a TUTT up near the islands that will likely enhance the convection.
TUTT appears to be lifting out so maybe not enough there to shear 90L soon.

[tropicwatch]

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the central Caribbean Sea. Development is expected to be slow
during the next day or two as the disturbance moves west-
northwestward at about 15 mph across the western Caribbean. By the
end of the weekend or early next week, environmental conditions
appear more conducive for development when the system moves near or
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[stormreader]

Pic shows growing T-storm activity just along Venezuelan coast (near that small swirl that persisted for a day or two). This is very near where the latest Euro runs (I've been told) initialize a tropical cyclone. Perhaps a center will form further north (seen that happen before). But the growing t-storm activity near Euro initialization could be the real deal.

[GCANE]

Looks like shear will likely wipe this out over the weekend.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Looks like shear will likely wipe this out over the weekend.

Dude what shear??? CONDITIONS ARE GONNA BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPEMENT STARTING MONDAY

[Alyono]

Looks like shear will likely wipe this out over the weekend.

huh?

[Emmett_Brown]

I seem to remember Mitch starting from a big blob of convection that moved off of the SA coast in a similar manner.

[Alyono]

quite a bit of new convection firing up near the broad low. Models seem to have initialized this one properly

If this makes the Gulf, a hurricane is likely

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS tonight has 90L buried into Central America. I do not think it is showing much development if at all.

[tropicwatch]

Here is the Windsat from around 5:47pm central time. Unfortunately tonight's Ascat was too far east. Might just have something going finally.

[Alyono]

Canadian MUCH stronger. Has this becoming a named storm before reaching Belize

[Hammy]

If the next few model runs continue the current trend I'd say the chances of this developing are about 10% at best. What organization existed a few days ago is gone and it seems the energy ended up too far south to make it into the Gulf at this point. Expecting NHC to lower the chances later.

[tropicwatch]

I wouldn't be too quick to write it off just yet.