ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

You would think CCKW boost should help offset the dry air problem but I wonder if the delay in development is more structural with regard to its detachment from the broad monsoon trough. Time will tell but I think this has a lot more things going for it than is predicted in the models right now.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/897199269656092672

[Alyono]

You would think CCKW boost should help offset the dry air problem but I wonder if the delay in development is more structural with regard to its detachment from the broad monsoon trough. Time will tell but I think this has a lot more things going for it than is predicted in the models right now.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/897199269656092672

no Kelvin wave is going to make a massive SAL outbreak disappear

[floridasun78]

some time this big tropical wave can take time form into ts

[AxaltaRacing24]

You would think CCKW boost should help offset the dry air problem but I wonder if the delay in development is more structural with regard to its detachment from the broad monsoon trough. Time will tell but I think this has a lot more things going for it than is predicted in the models right now.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/897199269656092672

no Kelvin wave is going to make a massive SAL outbreak disappear

Even if this gets Sal'ed it still has a shot at becoming Harvey in the western Atlantic? If so it reminds me of the pattern in a season 12 years ago.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the models is it possible we get Harvey and Irma from this large disturbance

[SouthFLTropics]

So now the GFS is back onboard with development but splits the monsoon trough into two halves and develops one to the NE in the Atlantic and one to the SW in the Caribbean. Two for the price of one. The one in the Atlantic looks to be trying to recurve through a weakness but the door may close before it can get out. Right now there is no run to run consistency in the models. Can't recall a year when they have been this poor.

[northjaxpro]

So now the GFS is back onboard with development but splits the monsoon trough into two halves and develops one to the NE in the Atlantic and one to the SW in the Caribbean. Two for the price of one. The one in the Atlantic looks to be trying to recurve through a weakness but the door may close before it can get out. Right now there is no run to run consistency in the models. Can't recall a year when they have been this poor.

Amen! I am getting dizzy trying to follow and make sense of all this confusion with the models. It has been mindboggling at times this season.

[floridasun78]

miami weatherman office are keep big eye on 91l as get closer to islands by friday

[Hammy]

So now the GFS is back onboard with development but splits the monsoon trough into two halves and develops one to the NE in the Atlantic and one to the SW in the Caribbean. Two for the price of one. The one in the Atlantic looks to be trying to recurve through a weakness but the door may close before it can get out. Right now there is no run to run consistency in the models. Can't recall a year when they have been this poor.

Amen! I am getting dizzy trying to follow and make sense of all this confusion with the models. It has been mindboggling at times this season.

After the 99L debacle last week (the MDR Cat 4 that never was) I'm basically looking at the GFS the same as the GEM, and mainly paying attention to the Euro trends.

[floridasun78]

anyone on islands what talk about 91 their ?as coould br area by friday

[Nimbus]

Whats with the dual buffer shoe polisher model runs?
I know this probably is not going to turn out well but still...

[emeraldislenc]

All the model talk is just confusing. It is difficult to understand.

[stormreader]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/897142119361642498




I guess the same could be said for the Euro!

except most every model is now showing the same...

LOL! There is no trusting the models this year it seems. Although I still think the rest of August will be less active than normal and that may continue thru the season. Just my gut and 2 cents.

You guys really keep up with the ins and outs of these models on a daily basis. I follow your lead. I don't think "no trusting models" is the full story. I guess if you expect models to show consistency from each run with possible development (and where), track, and intensity for poorly organized systems in the East Atlantic then I guess there is no trusting models. Guess many thought that was where we were at, or heading. Tell me if I'm wrong, but seems like once we get near the development stage, the Euro has been pretty accurate with track. I really don't trust any models with intensity forecasts. Even if they decipher the broad outline of the upper air pattern, seems like more local features can appear in wreak havoc with intensification.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm not seeing as much vorticity with the eastern area as the area at 12.5n 36w so I think the GFS is just plain wrong with cyclogenesis

[stormreader]

This disturbance, like Franklin before it, will be struggling against dry air until it moves west of 70W. That means low development chances east of the Caribbean. If it can reach the NW Caribbean or pass north of the Caribbean and head toward the Bahamas, then it may have a good chance of developing.

Here's a NASA forecast valid 18Z today. Look near 13N/35W.

[img]/img]

Bahamas? So I guess you're not on board the Franklin path train yet? BTW, when's the first Texas cold front?

I wouldn't rule out a track toward the Bahamas, but I'd forecast a Caribbean track today.

One of the other mets said the same thing.....RL3AO, I think. Big part of reasoning being the forecast later development allowing for more westerly track.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

I know all of the waves that have come off the African coast have struggled. I also know the models have for the most part backed off on any near term development on this one. But this wave has so much more moisture on a much larger scale than any of the past ones to work with. It already has some turning associated with it. Model support or not I would not be assuming this wave does as the others have before it, just saying I see this one developing, where it ends up is anyones guess.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be generally conducive for development during the next several
days while the disturbance moves westward at about 15 mph over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[msbee]

anyone on islands what talk about 91 their ?as coould br area by friday

we in the islands are watching VERY closely.

[jedsshed]

The last graphic has us pretty much covered for now.... Turn North!

[stormreader]

Its mid-August, and I think that NHC graphic tells you about all you need to know at this point.