ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

I would be very surprised if 92L never amounts to more then a tropical wave, I'm thinking tropical storm threat to the Bahamas/Florida in about a week.

Maybe hurricane if conditions are decent

Yea I could see a outside chance of a cat 1 if 92L finds the right conditions in the western Bahamas, of course this is all on the assumption that 92L survives the TUTT.

[northjaxpro]

I would be very surprised if 92L never amounts to more then a tropical wave, I'm thinking tropical storm threat to the Bahamas/Florida in about a week.

I agree with this. Still has a shot to be at minimum a TD in the next 24 hours or so before conditions become less favorable for development by Friday.

[jlauderdal]

Based upon current conditions, would it developing sooner have much of an effect on turning poleward sooner? I know that's typically the case with these systems, but if a high plants itself over Florida, is it going to shunt around it like some models are showing?

ridge looks very stout, maybe a major could bump up against it and displace it some but not what is forecasted now..this thing has one direction to go and you see that with the tight model cluster

[jlauderdal]

Gives and idea where the Pro's think our systems will go... For now 92L is no more than a TW heading for Fl Keys in 6 days...

track looks very good, dont see this getting north of middle keys and more likely never even hits key west directly...to much ridging in place

[p1nheadlarry]

I would be very surprised if 92L never amounts to more then a tropical wave, I'm thinking tropical storm threat to the Bahamas/Florida in about a week.

I agree with this. Still has a shot to be at minimum a TD in the next 24 hours or so before conditions become less favorable for development by Friday.

And if it does get sheared, probably better for it to become a tc, you'd think it would have a better chance at restrengthening once unfavorable conditions abate.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I would be very surprised if 92L never amounts to more then a tropical wave, I'm thinking tropical storm threat to the Bahamas/Florida in about a week.

I agree with this. Still has a shot to be at minimum a TD in the next 24 hours or so before conditions become less favorable for development by Friday.

And if it does get sheared, probably better for it to become a tc, you'd think it would have a better chance at restrengthening once unfavorable conditions abate.

If it can develop into a decent tropical storm before the wall of shear it should survive

[floridasun78]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017
. A second area of low pressure is located about 950 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance throZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

.

[floridasun78]

i notice both 92l and 91l have some dry air coming from east side west part doing good

[Nimbus]

i notice both 92l and 91l have some dry air coming from east side west part doing good

The upper level low way east near 28N is beginning to drop south and eventually SW which would shear 92L, but probably going to be a ridge there to the west for 91L.

[cycloneye]

00z Best track:

AL, 92, 2017081700, , BEST, 0, 143N, 386W, 25, 1009, LO

[Michele B]

:uarrow: Not only the shear but also look at the SST's as we progress in time. The temp goes up by 2 full degrees by the time 120 hours rolls around. The key to this whole thing is whether it can survive the TUTT. If it is able to maintain a decent vorticity we could end up with lift off in the Bahamas. This very much reminds me of the setup from a particular storm from 1992 that shall not be named.

What's "TUTT" please?

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough

#10 on this page: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/FAQ/Basic_Definitions.php

THANKS!



BTW - I already invoked the name "Andrew" - on the Models thread on this Invest~

[gatorcane]

That is a lot of dust around this invest:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hurricaneman]

I'm telling you guys 50 miles in this case is going to make a huge difference between a possible hurricane and no redevelopment due to Hispaniola and Cuba

[jlauderdal]

I'm telling you guys 50 miles in this case is going to make a huge difference between a possible hurricane and no redevelopment due to Hispaniola and Cuba

Yep, inflow issues or mountain shredder

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[Bocadude85]

I'm telling you guys 50 miles in this case is going to make a huge difference between a possible hurricane and no redevelopment due to Hispaniola and Cuba

The 0Z guidance has shifted north some, this may be able to stay north of the islands...I still think that a weak/moderate TS into S.Fla/Keys is the most likely scenario but a hurricane isn't out of the realm of possibilities if the shear isn't as bad a forecast.

[Hurricaneman]

The satellite images are showing some organization and it looks like a depression may be forming imo but looks possibly slightly sheared from the SE

[SunnyThoughts]

I sure hope the hurricane hunter aircraft are being serviced, both mechanical anc communications wise. Looks as though they are going to log quite a few miles the next couple weeks.

[Hurricaneman]

Definitely has a tighter circulation than 91L imo but there seems to be little convection in the eastern and southern quad

[jlauderdal]

I sure hope the hurricane hunter aircraft are being serviced, both mechanical anc communications wise. Looks as though they are going to log quite a few miles the next couple weeks.

They flew to st croix earlier today

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[Hurricaneman]

I'm telling you guys 50 miles in this case is going to make a huge difference between a possible hurricane and no redevelopment due to Hispaniola and Cuba

The 0Z guidance has shifted north some, this may be able to stay north of the islands...I still think that a weak/moderate TS into S.Fla/Keys is the most likely scenario but a hurricane isn't out of the realm of possibilities if the shear isn't as bad a forecast.

anymore shifts north then the southern Florida peninsula like Miami to Palm Beach may have to keep an eye on this, but it depends on how the ridge is oriented or if there's a trough like the Euro that recurves in the GOM and throws it back into Florida