ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Seriously a hurricane landfalling in Portugal -> Spain

How 'bout a TS in Ireland?

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

If Ophelia could strengthen more than it is doing right now per pressure, i could see it landfalling in Portugal because it will move tad south from the through. (NOTE: If this manages to get south i see models tried to weaken Ophelia completely to super-1000 pressures. I am skeptical of it, since it might well intensify and not weakening at all.) Otherwise it's in Ireland or doesn't even make landfall at all.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Ah yes. Takes me back to 2005.

I’m not sure if it is nostalgia, because I certainly wasn’t having fun in 2005, but it’s not like I am freaking out or having flashbacks.

It’s sort of like a “well...it’s been a while hasn’t it?”

Like bumping into a guy who bullied you in school and now he’s all grown up, but still kind of a jerk.

[Ryxn]

Seems like it's strengthening. The way it looks on visible satellite gives an illusion of a higher intensity even with the convection not being very deep (hard to see judging only on clouds). It looks a strong Category 2 (maybe even a weak 3 in my opinion) with Category 1 winds. One of the best looking Category 1 hurricanes. Nice and symmetrical.

[EquusStorm]

If our next storm is in the WCarib, we might end up with eleven consecutive hurricanes. And furthermore, the previous ten-hurricane streaks before the satellite era belie the lack of satellite coverage for brief tropical storms that would have gone unnoticed and could have broken the 19th century streaks, the completed reanalysis notwithstanding. That said, if PTC 10 from late August somehow gets classified in the post-season, our record is lost, breaking up the 2017 streak.

On subject though, the CMC ensemble map on the Tropical Tidbits site is having an interesting time with the late-track eastern longitude of Ophelia's remnants.

[Ryxn]

If our next storm is in the WCarib, we might end up with eleven consecutive hurricanes. And furthermore, the previous ten-hurricane streaks before the satellite era belie the lack of satellite coverage for brief tropical storms that would have gone unnoticed and could have broken the 19th century streaks, the completed reanalysis notwithstanding. That said, if PTC 10 from late August somehow gets classified in the post-season, our record is lost, breaking up the 2017 streak.

On subject though, the CMC ensemble map on the Tropical Tidbits site is having an interesting time with the late-track eastern longitude of Ophelia's remnants.

Well, hypothetically, 2 more consecutive hurricanes could form in the next 20 days and the next 2 storms could be come hurricanes in November and December. This would push the consecutive hurricane count to a crazy 14 and even is PTC10 gets upgraded to a storm, the record of 11 consecutive hurricanes will still be 2017's. However, 4 more consecutive hurricanes from this point on is quite the long shot but technically possible.

[EquusStorm]

Well, even three November hurricanes isn't impossible (2001) so it's not totally outta the question.

[EquusStorm]

85mph/986mb as per new advisory. Really impressive for that part of the Atlantic but not unprecedented. Ireland could see some rather significant impact from this in the long run.

[CrazyC83]

If it stays tropical to Europe, would those countries issue tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings?

[1900hurricane]

Latest ASCAT data only has 45 kt in very close to the center. Resolution and low bias means Ophelia is certainly stronger than that, but by how much?

[Sciencerocks]

I wouldn't use ascat for anything higher then 45 knts. This thing is a hurricane without a doubt.

[Alyono]

Latest ASCAT data only has 45 kt in very close to the center. Resolution and low bias means Ophelia is certainly stronger than that, but by how much?

https://i.imgur.com/RznfN52.png

Ophelia has been running 1 full T number below the estimates. This is probably 50-55 kts right now

NHC is doing a JTWC-like job here of giving far too much weight to subjective Dvorak estimates. This is NOT a hurricane right now, even though it looks like one on satellite imagery

[Dean_175]

NHC is doing a JTWC-like job here of giving far too much weight to subjective Dvorak estimates. This is NOT a hurricane right now, even though it looks like one on satellite imagery

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Interesting, and I understand your point of view here. Just another reason why bring back Recon would be of a major benefit in the west Pacific- especially for major storms that are too strong for ASCAT.

Just a question though: what would happen if the NHC named a storm that really was under tropical storm force- and somehow discovered that in re-analysis?

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Ophelia and the large extratropical cyclone north of it on the EUMETSAT arimass composite image, both look nice.

[terstorm1012]

If it stays tropical to Europe, would those countries issue tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings?

I can't imagine they have any protocols for tropical systems---they don't issue those warnings and watches when tropicalesque systems form in the Mediterranean.

[Extratropical94]

If it stays tropical to Europe, would those countries issue tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings?

Each country has their own weather agency which issues watches and warnings for severe weather like wind, snow, heavy rain or heat. I don't think there would be special warnings for a tropical system, only the regular high wind and rain warnings. We get large-scale hurricane-force windstorms here in Europe every year (especially countries like Ireland are used to them) so the impact from a smaller tropical/transitioning system would probably be too insignificant to warrant the issuance of special TS warnings.

[supercane4867]

Ophelia has intensified quite a bit. Likely a CAT2 now.

[CrazyC83]

Ophelia has intensified quite a bit. Likely a CAT2 now.

https://i.imgur.com/pWdZ3HP.gif

I know Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 95 kt, but with the caveat that ASCAT has been really low. ASCAT doesn't cover eyewalls very well though, so Ophelia likely has a small radius of hurricane winds (at a large TS wind field). Getting a ship report would be very useful, but ships don't drive into hurricanes deliberately.

[bob rulz]

Latest ASCAT data only has 45 kt in very close to the center. Resolution and low bias means Ophelia is certainly stronger than that, but by how much?

https://i.imgur.com/RznfN52.png

Ophelia has been running 1 full T number below the estimates. This is probably 50-55 kts right now

NHC is doing a JTWC-like job here of giving far too much weight to subjective Dvorak estimates. This is NOT a hurricane right now, even though it looks like one on satellite imagery

I thought ASCAT was basically useless once a storm had a defined eyewall/was above a certain intensity? And what would make the Dvorak estimates unreliable? Just curious what the reasoning here is.

[Alyono]

Latest ASCAT data only has 45 kt in very close to the center. Resolution and low bias means Ophelia is certainly stronger than that, but by how much?

https://i.imgur.com/RznfN52.png

Ophelia has been running 1 full T number below the estimates. This is probably 50-55 kts right now

NHC is doing a JTWC-like job here of giving far too much weight to subjective Dvorak estimates. This is NOT a hurricane right now, even though it looks like one on satellite imagery

I thought ASCAT was basically useless once a storm had a defined eyewall/was above a certain intensity? And what would make the Dvorak estimates unreliable? Just curious what the reasoning here is.

ASCAT is usually reliable up through 50 kts. It is above that that is cannot resolve the winds properly.