ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1201 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:21 am

I'm very curious to see if 12Z GFS (And it's ensembles) continue trending towards the Euro..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1202 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:22 am

could this take mattew track off fl coast go to north?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1203 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:22 am

Well, GFS is getting ready to run...I'm going to say we will see a continued SW shift in the long range with a Savannah to Charleston strike on todays 12z run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1204 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:26 am

12z GFS initiated

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1205 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:28 am

How many days out did the GFS/Euro start hinting Harvey Texas landfall? I know they were burying Harvey into CA for a while...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1206 Postby blp » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:29 am

Well this is not good.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903258615221510149


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1207 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:29 am

floridasun78 wrote:could this take mattew track off fl coast go to north?


That's certainly a possibility, although it's way, way too early to determine that.

Just gotta keep watching it. Long way to go.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1208 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:29 am

GFS at 6 hours is already faster and further SW than 06z

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1209 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:30 am

Blown Away wrote:How many days out did the GFS/Euro start hinting Harvey Texas landfall? I know they were burying Harvey into CA for a while...


EPS control had a Texas landfall actually, well before anuone before shifting to a track burrying it in CA.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1210 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:31 am



Yeah, we're getting lit up light a Christmas tree. We've been here before. If it still looks like that come Monday night, I'll be a little more concerned.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1211 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:31 am

Just saw bastardi update he feels Euro is winning this batter and will be more west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1212 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:32 am

With the 12z GFS coming in, please remember that posts should be of some use. Either posting a model image, making a substantive comment (e.g. something beyond 126 hrs moving wsw), or asking/answering a question.
Posts can and will be deleted without warning if they don't meet those criteria.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1213 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:32 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Blown Away wrote:How many days out did the GFS/Euro start hinting Harvey Texas landfall? I know they were burying Harvey into CA for a while...


EPS control had a Texas landfall actually, well before anuone before shifting to a track burrying it in CA.


How many days out did EPS control show TX?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1214 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:32 am

Further SW at 12 Hours

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1215 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:34 am

18 hours...still SW of 06z

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1216 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:36 am

24 Hours and SW of 06z... Low to the NW may be a hair stronger though

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1217 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:38 am

30 hours...Pay attention to the trough above North Dakota. It appears flatter on this run.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1218 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:39 am

South of 06z at 42 hours

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1219 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:40 am

Bastardi said high pressure is strong in Atlantic and trough might not matter !! On his Newest update
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1220 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:44 am

Ridge stronger...diving WSW at 54 hours

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