ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

It could get that core back together quickly, especially if it stays over water and shoots the Yucatan Channel...This system looked like it was spinning up quickly before it crashed over Honduras...Might do it again...

[Aric Dunn]

It is interesting watching these two systems interact.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

CMC

[Aric Dunn]

Luckily it should have trouble really deepening since it will be interacting with the other system... the whole west side should remain much weaker ..

[stormlover2013]

JMA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

[bella_may]

Looks like the center is headed for my backyard unfortunately

[tropicwatch]

Went ahead and put up the shutters and put away the patio furniture. These things sometimes have a bad habit of making that northeast turn a little early.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2017100612&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=170

CMC

Canadian still showing the fujiwara double hit to the LA coast. Idk. It is really the only model that has consistently been showing this solution for the last few runs. So it's an outlier. But if the first piece of energy comes back up NE, that will end up having been a good call. I'm doubting it for now.

[GBPackMan]

It could get that core back together quickly, especially if it stays over water and shoots the Yucatan Channel...This system looked like it was spinning up quickly before it crashed over Honduras...Might do it again...

Not likely, with the jet stream dipping lower into the central plains, it is sending a stream of cooler drier air right into the gulf coast, plus the remnants of Ramona that is SW of Nate in the Pacific is also sapping a lot of the convection. As that jet stream dip moves NE, it pulls the storm with it, which will determine when it actually turns. It also means the eastern side of that front sucks a lot of the moisture along the frontal boundary keeping Nate weaker than if it were earlier in the season.
I am thinking weak Cat 1 at its strongest, 75-85mph in a very narrow area, very close to the eyewall, but not much wind more than 30 miles and further outward.

[AMeyer614]

Is forward speed faster now than what was forecast? My concern would be if it's moving faster, the turn to the NNE/NE wouldn't occur until it's closer to (or further) inland. I'm curious as to the probability of this happening and it putting NOLA closer to center of the storm.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So I heard Cantore is in town (Biloxi). He must've forgotten, we told him never to come back here, he's bad luck.

Dont worry you are safe. Jim has pretty consistently been missing eyewalls since 1995 when he gets deployed this early

I call it the Cantore Factor

[smithtim]

Call it a feeling or whatever, but I feel like this storm could still reach or come close to major hurricane status just before landfall. Just my opinion, and not driven by science.

I can see same concern as storm moving into rocket fueled GOM, especially if continues east & misses land Yucatan???
But I've noticed two things which might be saving grace for good people of northern gulf coast:

1st (twc currently stressing this) most of the intensity models are actually lower than nhc's 80mph ( also noted in nhc 11am discussion). So saying stronger is really saying 80mph... ok of course it could be even stronger maybe 90ish but I think MH is a bit of stretch!

2nd this storm is hauling 21mph so that'll limit time over that rocket fueled gulf!


Again let us hope for the good people of northern gulf coast that this thing just chills out!!!!

[Alyono]

HWRF barely intensifies this as GFS trends stronger.

NCEP modeling not performing that great

[hurricaneCW]

Gotta watch these smaller circulations carefully, we know how quickly they can ramp up. I do think there's the potential for a Cat 2 before LF, NHC mentioned that rapid intensification is still possible.

Also forward speed will accelerate the winds on the east side.

[NDG]

Is starting to get its act together.

[bella_may]

Is starting to get its act together.

Shear might be diminishing

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet


http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weathe ... est&hh=048

[BB79]

Is starting to get its act together.

I was also just noting this and about to mention it. Will be watching for that convective burst on the nw and w side to make a full wrap and get Nate into a better strengthening phase

[NDG]

Is starting to get its act together.

https://i.imgur.com/Vfn7v5X.jpg

Shear might be diminishing

Is also starting to shake off the down slopping/diverging winds to were to the east of the circulation.

[dhweather]

Burst of convection around/near the center, but the overall organization of Nate is still really poor.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider