ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[PSUHiker31]

Yeah the organization of Nate is rapidly improving. If this keeps up, it will look pretty impressive by tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

If for some reason it was like 6 to 12 hours slower then we would be talking more major hurricane ... as it stands with all the interactions and timing.. not looking likely.. but it is the tropics and if a core does manage to get established it could deepen more.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be well to the right of the forecast track as well?

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2017 0 17.8N 84.6W 995 40
0000UTC 07.10.2017 12 21.1N 85.8W 993 45
1200UTC 07.10.2017 24 25.4N 88.1W 987 51
0000UTC 08.10.2017 36 28.5N 89.6W 982 59
1200UTC 08.10.2017 48 31.2N 88.5W 979 38
0000UTC 09.10.2017 60 34.7N 86.0W 993 28
1200UTC 09.10.2017 72 38.5N 80.7W 1003 20
0000UTC 10.10.2017 84 40.6N 75.0W 1007 30
1200UTC 10.10.2017 96 42.5N 69.6W 1009 29
0000UTC 11.10.2017 108 CEASED TRACKING

[crimi481]

Do the models show the spin to the east of the current center? Wonder if center relocates more n.e. ?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Big Easy Breeze]

Gang, two things.

1. Please keep the non-model posts over in the discussion thread.

2. When you summarize what a model solution shows, be accurate. For instance, the 12Z NAM does not show a SELA landfall (it misses Pass a Loutre to the SE by about 15 miles), and the 12Z GFS does not have NOLA written all over it (it moves over Buras, heading NE toward a second landfall along the MS coast). Thanks.

Better yet; why allow a posters written perspective of what they see in a model graphic, when all there is needed, is the graphic?

tolakram has it down pat!

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

It seems to be well to the right of the forecast track as well?

yep it and the other system are rotating around a pivet point which was not well forecast by the models but was most likely going to happen. some models did well with the more north motion before the bend back to the NNW while the other system dropped south then SSE later on..

[GBPackMan]

Is starting to get its act together.

I was also just noting this and about to mention it. Will be watching for that convective burst on the nw and w side to make a full wrap and get Nate into a better strengthening phase

There is another weak low NW of the Yucatan right now, plus the remnants of Ramona in the Pacific side SW of Nate, both sapping some of the convection.... Plus add in the cooler dry air from the dipping jet stream over the southern Rockies (keeping high level air cooler than usual, which is sucked into the storm), low altitude hot dry air from the southwestern US desert and the Mexico desert, all being sucked into this storm. May intensify a little by the Yucatan, then fade away a little due to the nearby land.... but with all the other interactions plus its speed, it will not have much time to sit in the gulf to intensify. As it nears the US, that jet stream will also shear off a lot of the humidity to fuel the storms along the front, sending a lot of rain along the western Appalachians all the way into PA and into New England.

I expect a weak Cat 1 around 75-85mph in a very small area near the eyewall as it makes US landfall at the SE islands of LA, then again the shores of southern AL. A bit of rain a ways from the "eye" but in my opinion nothing of concern except for those immediately on the water and low lying areas. The southeastern states can soak up these heavier rains easily as they do all summer.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Went ahead and put up the shutters and put away the patio furniture. These things sometimes have a bad habit of making that northeast turn a little early.

A mass moving in a given direction at the projected speed of some 20mph, will have a very difficult time making a sudden turn. The turn will be more gradual (less sharp), but timing will be critical, obviously.

[PTPatrick]

So UkMet has 60 knots, HWRf 50 Knots, GFS about 60 knots, Euro probably low end Ts....this is looking more and more like a basic run of the mill Gulf sheared TS although the NhC still seems to be thinking cat 1..Track looking more and more likely crossing the mouth as it cuts northeast in land near Biloxi, give or take a few mile, depending on model.

Still waiting to make the call about my fam near pascagoula in low lying areas. Think the property sits right about 8 feet and they are still saying 4-7, so fingers crossed. They will be playing this a little closer than the big ones of years past, if it starts to look more like a AL hit they should be fine, but if it looking like more of a Biloxi or Jackson county hit the water could be a bigger concern.

[NDG]

VDM says pressure down to 996mb, unlike the graphic from tropical tidbits.

000
URNT12 KNHC 061723 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 06/16:56:20Z
B. 19 deg 05 min N
085 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1401 m
D. 39 kt
E. 228 deg 11 nm
F. 294 deg 32 kt
G. 228 deg 19 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1519 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0516A NATE OB 25 CCA
MAX FL WIND 49 KT 112 / 68 NM 12:47:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 47 KT 359 / 65 NM 17:16:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 175 / 6 KT

[NDG]

[txwatcher91]

Convection and banding are improving quickly this afternoon. Tomorrow morning we may be waking up to a surprise. DMAX combined with the improved organization and convection now bursting over the center should allow for steady strengthening, then possible RI in the GOM if the shear remains light.

[stormlover2013]

I think the models have a pretty good handle on everything..

[Aric Dunn]

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

[txwatcher91]

I think the models have a pretty good handle on everything..

On track, yes but on intensity that remains to be seen. Models have struggled all year with intensity and this could easily end up far stronger than modeled. It's quite possible this could strengthen all the way up until landfall similar to Harvey, but not as strong.

[stormlover2013]

euro right on board with gfs, ukmet, with a weak sloppy system!!! looks like rain will be the main problem...with some winds

[Jelff]

The link below displays a Google + GIS map that shows NOAA’s storm surge forecast for what will likely be hurricane Nate when it makes landfall.

The map also has various other GIS overlay layers that you can turn on/off and restack. If you are seeing this map for the first time and would like to learn more, please click “Map Tips” in the upper left corner.

Map link: https://goo.gl/63YmU5

[Aric Dunn]

euro right on board with gfs, ukmet, with a weak sloppy system!!! looks like rain will be the main problem...with some winds

Noname system saves the day lol