ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1361 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:00 pm

Iune wrote:So it seems Maria was a Category 5 for less than six hours. Sadly it had to be the six hours prior to landfall on Dominica. :(



How much strength is she expected to regain over the next 24-36 hours?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1362 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:01 pm

Iune wrote:So it seems Maria was a Category 5 for less than six hours. Sadly it had to be the six hours prior to landfall on Dominica. :(


Yep, only one best track point (at 0000Z) plus the landfall point (at 0130Z).
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1363 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:04 pm

This continued nnw to nw motion is not looking good for SW Guadeloupe. lets hope it resume its wnw course.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1364 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:05 pm

Sadly, I fear the brutal hit on Dominica is just the beginning. Strongly suspect it will quickly reach cat 5 again once the eyewall shenanigans are complete. I am actually a bit nauseated right now just thinking of what kind of destruction will be visible in the morning, hearing the reports coming in already. It's really unnerving how fast it happens too... I sat here on the couch in front of a laptop screen and watched the storm approach, hit, and depart Dominica in the span of just a few hours, and in that short slice of my evening, unspeakable things have been wrought. It seems absolutely surreal.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1365 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:10 pm

This is very bad for Dominica. I do not want to see come morning. :eek: :cry:
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1366 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This continued nnw to nw motion is not looking good for SW Guadeloupe. lets hope it resume its wnw course.

Agree that's the worrying scenario Aric. Me make me very nervous... :(
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1367 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This continued nnw to nw motion is not looking good for SW Guadeloupe. lets hope it resume its wnw course.


It’s almost like the storm is trying to put as many places in the eyewall as possible. Not looking good...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1368 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:24 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:This continued nnw to nw motion is not looking good for SW Guadeloupe. lets hope it resume its wnw course.


It’s almost like the storm is trying to put as many places in the eyewall as possible. Not looking good...


I suspect the NW motion as it went over Dominica had something to do with the frictional forces of the LLC passing over the mountains. It always amazes me how that happens in mountainous terrains.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1369 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:32 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:This continued nnw to nw motion is not looking good for SW Guadeloupe. lets hope it resume its wnw course.


It’s almost like the storm is trying to put as many places in the eyewall as possible. Not looking good...


I suspect the NW motion as it went over Dominica had something to do with the frictional forces of the LLC passing over the mountains. It always amazes me how that happens in mountainous terrains.


yep, very likely. well documented.. not well understood.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1370 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:34 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:This continued nnw to nw motion is not looking good for SW Guadeloupe. lets hope it resume its wnw course.


It’s almost like the storm is trying to put as many places in the eyewall as possible. Not looking good...


I suspect the NW motion as it went over Dominica had something to do with the frictional forces of the LLC passing over the mountains. It always amazes me how that happens in mountainous terrains.

:roll: :(
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1371 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:38 pm

Eye bouncing right back in to shape once over water...


That east quadrant core is now giving Dominica a second punch...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1372 Postby sikkar » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:42 pm

The eye on IR is as clear and symmetric as ever, looks like the system is recovering from land interaction already.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1373 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
It’s almost like the storm is trying to put as many places in the eyewall as possible. Not looking good...


I suspect the NW motion as it went over Dominica had something to do with the frictional forces of the LLC passing over the mountains. It always amazes me how that happens in mountainous terrains.


yep, very likely. well documented.. not well understood.


Here's a paper on it. Definitely has something to do with the blockage of low-level flow near a mountain range, followed by the development of a lee cyclone (for instances where the mountain range is tall and/or thick enough).

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -0493(1987)115%3C0130%3AANSOTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

(edit: sorry about the broken link -- copy/paste in your browser)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1374 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:45 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
I suspect the NW motion as it went over Dominica had something to do with the frictional forces of the LLC passing over the mountains. It always amazes me how that happens in mountainous terrains.


yep, very likely. well documented.. not well understood.


Here's a paper on it. Definitely has something to do with the blockage of low-level flow near a mountain range, followed by the development of a lee cyclone (for instances where the mountain range is tall and/or thick enough).

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -0493(1987)115%3C0130%3AANSOTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

(edit: sorry about the broken link -- copy/paste in your browser)


yep.. hurricane Debby is a great example too :)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1375 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:55 pm

winds are pretty quickly returning in the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1376 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:57 pm

Dominica posts have gone silent on Storm Carib...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1377 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:59 pm

Winds are really picking up in Guadeloupe! I cannot see anything from my house but i can assume you that i have this powerfull voice of the Wind behing my Windows..." Vrrr"... maybe strong gusts near 90-100 km/h IMO
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1378 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:02 am

Gustywind wrote:Winds are really picking up in Guadeloupe! I cannot see anything from my house but i can assume you that i have this powerfull voice of the Wind behing my Windows..." Vrrr"... maybe strong gusts near 90-100 km/h IMO


im not sure of your location.. but it will be getting to its closest approach very soon.. the inner eye wall is very close to the SW tip of the island. . assuming it does not wobble anymore.. it might get worse before better.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1379 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:03 am

He's about 40 miles NE of the center...


Eye is coming close to SW Guadeloupe and near to Iles Des Saintes...
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1380 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:06 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Winds are really picking up in Guadeloupe! I cannot see anything from my house but i can assume you that i have this powerfull voice of the Wind behing my Windows..." Vrrr"... maybe strong gusts near 90-100 km/h IMO


im not sure of your location.. but it will be getting to its closest approach very soon.. the inner eye wall is very close to the SW tip of the island. . assuming it does not wobble anymore.. it might get worse before better.

Aric what are the latest infos related to MARIA in terms of characteristics? Thanks.
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