ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Would a stronger storm gain more latitude quicker?

there is a tendency for strong hurricanes to have a northerly component. however, it all depends on the ridging. right now the ridging is strong and a steady wnw track is quite likely.

Yep, the strong ridging kept IRMA on the westerly track. Those who wanted an active season and active Cape Verde season got it. Be careful what you wish for

[caneman]

As an aside, i can't find the Irma discussion thread. I was going to provide a post on Irma affects. Can someone direct me to it or provide a link? Thanks

[Gustywind]

Would a stronger storm gain more latitude quicker?

Ok what cane status do you think Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

Would a stronger storm gain more latitude quicker?

Ok what cane status do you think Aric?

To early to tell. but prepare as if it were a major hurricane regardless.

[Michele B]

I'm sorry, late to the party here, today.

Didn't this used to be TC Fourteen??

[psyclone]

I'm sorry, late to the party here, today.

Didn't this used to be TC Fourteen??

14 is now Lee (to the east)

[Steve]

Would a stronger storm gain more latitude quicker?

Ok what cane status do you think Aric?

Joe B on his Saturday Summary has it weaker near the islands 1/2 (up to a 3 and down to a 2) before settling on a 4 on his track heading for the Carolinas. No way we're getting hit by 3 Cat 4's in 1 year, right? :/ His window is eastern Gulf to out to sea Monday a week, but this is as ominous as it gets a week out. Get your stuff this weekend or early next week if you're running low on supplies on the SE Coast and possibly FL East Coast early this week and beat the rushes.

https://www.weatherbell.com/

[Dave C]

As an aside, i can't find the Irma discussion thread. I was going to provide a post on Irma affects. Can someone direct me to it or provide a link? Thanks

Go to talking tropics and click on storm archives then click 2017 and all this years past storms are there.

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note. it passing south of the next forecast point and not much on a northerly component yet ...

[RT23]

on a side note. it passing south of the next forecast point and not much on a northerly component yet ...

Been noticing this all morning.

[caneman]

Would a stronger storm gain more latitude quicker?

Ok what cane status do you think Aric?

Joe B on his Saturday Summary has it weaker near the islands 1/2 (up to a 3 and down to a 2) before settling on a 4 on his track heading for the Carolinas. No way we're getting hit by 3 Cat 4's in 1 year, right? :/ His window is eastern Gulf to out to sea Monday a week, but this is as ominous as it gets a week out. Get your stuff this weekend or early next week if you're running low on supplies on the SE Coast and possibly FL East Coast early this week and beat the rushes.

https://www.weatherbell.com/

I can't even think about that right now Steve. I'm physically and mentally exhausted from Irma
Just got power back. Large branches, trees and many power poles down along the Pinellas coast.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Way too much curvature on this visible satellite of PTC 15- bad news for someone is brewing there ☹️Heed advice from your local governments!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/909095795898675200

[Michele B]

I'm sorry, late to the party here, today.

Didn't this used to be TC Fourteen??

14 is now Lee (to the east)

So what's 15?? Soon-to-be Maria??

[Gustywind]

Would a stronger storm gain more latitude quicker?

Ok what cane status do you think Aric?

To early to tell. but prepare as if it were a major hurricane regardless.

Ok thanks! You should be right on that guy... so the chances to have at least a cane are credible , thanks Aric. Don't forget your friends in the islands... we're always very glad to have to your pertinents analysis as know that this season is so busy for those who lived in the EC. Keep us informed ! If i've any infos too i will keep you informed too.
Gustywind

[Steve]

I'm sorry, late to the party here, today.

Didn't this used to be TC Fourteen??

14 is now Lee (to the east)

So what's 15?? Soon-to-be Maria??

Here's the list through 2022. Maria.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

[USTropics]

I'm sorry, late to the party here, today.

Didn't this used to be TC Fourteen??

14 is now Lee (to the east)

So what's 15?? Soon-to-be Maria??

Correct. TD-14/Lee spawned from the far eastern wave (formerly invest 97L). TD-15/future Maria was formerly the more western wave (invest 96L).

[Aric Dunn]

@EricBlake12
Way too much curvature on this visible satellite of PTC 15- bad news for someone is brewing there ☹️Heed advice from your local governments!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/909095795898675200

yep that is why I mentioned winds likely near 60 mph already... and hurricane is likely sooner rather than later.. recon tomorrow ( which they should already be flying now) if this continues will likely find a well established hurricane.. though we at least will see it on satellite first..

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else having trouble loadig the NASA site ? https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[Hurricaneman]

@EricBlake12
Way too much curvature on this visible satellite of PTC 15- bad news for someone is brewing there ☹️Heed advice from your local governments!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/909095795898675200

yep that is why I mentioned winds likely near 60 mph already... and hurricane is likely sooner rather than later.. recon tomorrow ( which they should already be flying now) if this continues will likely find a well established hurricane.. though we at least will see it on satellite first..

Honestly looks like a strong tropical storm with a forming eye on visible satellite, I think this will be best tracked 12 to 18 hours back in reanalysis

[Hurricaneman]

Definitely Maria at 5, probably hurricane by the time recon gets there