ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#141 Postby Frank2 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:16 pm

The TWO was worded the way it was because the front is moving quickly into the GOM (already clearly visible west of 85W) and will move the Caribbean weather eastward with it...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22505
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#142 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:23 pm

joey wrote:
gatorcane wrote:interesting how South Florida / Keys are not mentioned as getting watches but the NW Bahamas and Western Cuba are? Guess NHC is pretty confident it goes far enough SE of Florida to not be an issue.


dont want to cause a alarm they will wait for recon data then decide but something should be up at 5pm for some one


No, the reason the NHC forecasters aren't mentioning the Keys or South Florida is because the low will likely track far enough east of south Florida so as to have little impact there.
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14942
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#143 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:25 pm

Plenty of tropical force winds found south of the broad COC.

91830 1634N 08455W 9596 00421 0079 +216 +216 263034 035 049 029 00
191900 1632N 08454W 9593 00430 0083 +214 +214 261035 037 046 024 00
191930 1631N 08452W 9593 00430 0083 +213 +213 266034 036 036 015 00
192000 1630N 08451W 9594 00428 0081 +213 +213 266038 040 038 009 00
192030 1629N 08450W 9594 00427 0082 +206 //// 265040 041 038 006 01
192100 1628N 08449W 9593 00430 0083 +212 //// 261039 040 034 008 01
192130 1626N 08447W 9597 00427 0084 +211 //// 258039 040 033 006 01
$$
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#144 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:29 pm

The Keys and SFL are indeed mentioned in the 2pm TWO not sure what you guys are talking about.
0 likes   

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1580
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#145 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:33 pm

So the fat lady sings another song for So Fla after much ado about little or nothing?
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7300
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#146 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:34 pm

Likely closed and with tropical storm forced winds...Expect upgrade at 5pm.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#147 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:39 pm

Looks like spiral "banding" is starting to take shape on the east side looking at the vis floater loop, looks to be moving WNW:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#148 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:40 pm

We are we dismissing any impact for South Florida? Even the NHC says the Keys & South Florida should keep watch. It never was gonna be more than a rain event anyway, it just may be a bit windier than expected.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#149 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:47 pm

This should’ve be at minimal a TD enough westerly winds found on recon but could go straight to a TS
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3950
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#150 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:48 pm

sunnyday wrote:So the fat lady sings another song for So Fla after much ado about little or nothing?

Umm no.

NHC is mentioning this now on their TWO.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#151 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:56 pm

93L position and track are very reminiscent of Wilma in 2005 which tracked through this area and turned NE ahead of a strong cold front int South Florida just a few days prior in October

The big difference of course is that this system is nowhere near the strength of Wilma in its current position.

What I am wondering though is when this interacts with the cold front over or near South FL / Keys, could the system be baroclinically enhanced similar to Wilma but on a less severe scale or will the shear be able to rip it apart sufficiently north of Cuba?
0 likes   

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#152 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:58 pm

Oh boy ts force winds. Here we go again.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2807
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#153 Postby blp » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:00 pm

Looks like we got something.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#154 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:14 pm

wide shot visible animation, looks like a storm to me and it is on the move too.

Yesterday at this time it didn't look like much, amazing what the NW Caribbean waters can do to these things. :eek:

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14942
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#155 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:31 pm

IMO I think they are going to go ahead with posting tropical storm warnings because of all of the tropical storm force winds found south and east of the broad center of circulation.
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#156 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:36 pm

NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropcial Cyclone Eighteen, currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Source: http://nhc.noaa.gov
2 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#157 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:38 pm

Better structure...Cool, dry here...
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3297
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#158 Postby fci » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:93L position and track are very reminiscent of Wilma in 2005 which tracked through this area and turned NE ahead of a strong cold front int South Florida just a few days prior in October

The big difference of course is that this system is nowhere near the strength of Wilma in its current position.

What I am wondering though is when this interacts with the cold front over or near South FL / Keys, could the system be baroclinically enhanced similar to Wilma but on a less severe scale or will the shear be able to rip it apart sufficiently north of Cuba?


With all due respect, Wilma’s track was quite different.
She crossed the Yucatán Peninsula before getting pushed ENE towards Southwest Florida as a Cat 3.
This system won’t touch Yucatán and will cross Cuba south of the Florida Peninsula as a Tropical Storm at most
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!

fox13weather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#159 Postby fox13weather » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:44 pm

i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...
5 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2807
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#160 Postby blp » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:48 pm

fox13weather wrote:i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...


I agree see no use for the PTC with the general public.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests