ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

The TWO was worded the way it was because the front is moving quickly into the GOM (already clearly visible west of 85W) and will move the Caribbean weather eastward with it...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

[wxman57]

interesting how South Florida / Keys are not mentioned as getting watches but the NW Bahamas and Western Cuba are? Guess NHC is pretty confident it goes far enough SE of Florida to not be an issue.

dont want to cause a alarm they will wait for recon data then decide but something should be up at 5pm for some one

No, the reason the NHC forecasters aren't mentioning the Keys or South Florida is because the low will likely track far enough east of south Florida so as to have little impact there.

[NDG]

Plenty of tropical force winds found south of the broad COC.

91830 1634N 08455W 9596 00421 0079 +216 +216 263034 035 049 029 00
191900 1632N 08454W 9593 00430 0083 +214 +214 261035 037 046 024 00
191930 1631N 08452W 9593 00430 0083 +213 +213 266034 036 036 015 00
192000 1630N 08451W 9594 00428 0081 +213 +213 266038 040 038 009 00
192030 1629N 08450W 9594 00427 0082 +206 //// 265040 041 038 006 01
192100 1628N 08449W 9593 00430 0083 +212 //// 261039 040 034 008 01
192130 1626N 08447W 9597 00427 0084 +211 //// 258039 040 033 006 01
$$

[SFLcane]

The Keys and SFL are indeed mentioned in the 2pm TWO not sure what you guys are talking about.

[sunnyday]

So the fat lady sings another song for So Fla after much ado about little or nothing?

[Sciencerocks]

Likely closed and with tropical storm forced winds...Expect upgrade at 5pm.

[gatorcane]

Looks like spiral "banding" is starting to take shape on the east side looking at the vis floater loop, looks to be moving WNW:

[AdamFirst]

We are we dismissing any impact for South Florida? Even the NHC says the Keys & South Florida should keep watch. It never was gonna be more than a rain event anyway, it just may be a bit windier than expected.

[SFLcane]

This should’ve be at minimal a TD enough westerly winds found on recon but could go straight to a TS

[AutoPenalti]

So the fat lady sings another song for So Fla after much ado about little or nothing?

Umm no.

NHC is mentioning this now on their TWO.

[gatorcane]

93L position and track are very reminiscent of Wilma in 2005 which tracked through this area and turned NE ahead of a strong cold front int South Florida just a few days prior in October

The big difference of course is that this system is nowhere near the strength of Wilma in its current position.

What I am wondering though is when this interacts with the cold front over or near South FL / Keys, could the system be baroclinically enhanced similar to Wilma but on a less severe scale or will the shear be able to rip it apart sufficiently north of Cuba?

[BYG Jacob]

Oh boy ts force winds. Here we go again.

[blp]

Looks like we got something.

[gatorcane]

wide shot visible animation, looks like a storm to me and it is on the move too.

Yesterday at this time it didn't look like much, amazing what the NW Caribbean waters can do to these things.

[NDG]

IMO I think they are going to go ahead with posting tropical storm warnings because of all of the tropical storm force winds found south and east of the broad center of circulation.

[WeatherEmperor]

NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropcial Cyclone Eighteen, currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Source: http://nhc.noaa.gov

[Sanibel]

Better structure...Cool, dry here...

[fci]

93L position and track are very reminiscent of Wilma in 2005 which tracked through this area and turned NE ahead of a strong cold front int South Florida just a few days prior in October

The big difference of course is that this system is nowhere near the strength of Wilma in its current position.

What I am wondering though is when this interacts with the cold front over or near South FL / Keys, could the system be baroclinically enhanced similar to Wilma but on a less severe scale or will the shear be able to rip it apart sufficiently north of Cuba?

With all due respect, Wilma’s track was quite different.
She crossed the Yucatán Peninsula before getting pushed ENE towards Southwest Florida as a Cat 3.
This system won’t touch Yucatán and will cross Cuba south of the Florida Peninsula as a Tropical Storm at most

[fox13weather]

i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...

[blp]

i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...

I agree see no use for the PTC with the general public.