ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Stormcenter]

Let's get a center first before we buy into these model runs. IMO

[SoupBone]

96 hours, still moving NW

[stormreader]

A potential developing Cat. 2 barreling into SE Texas should be talked about more than it currently has been.

Hopefully, your local weather outlet will start pushing things on the evening news tonight. By that time it should have cleared the Yucatan. Greater organization should be apparent to all. He can then give some kind of time-frame for its trek across the GOM.

[lsuhurricane]

Like I said the north shifts are over and expect the next run to be probably more west than that

This is a definitive statement. Changes are likely and additional model variations are set to occur. This isnt the first time you've made this mistake in the past few pages.

[stormreader]

Like I said the north shifts are over and expect the next run to be probably more west than that

You may be right. I was thinking more of a slowing where the GFS has it moving into the coast there. Thinking more of a slowing and an uncertainty, but staying just off the coast. Then a little of that NE forecast component before making inland between Galveston and the TX-La border. But you may be right, lets see.

[stormreader]

Let's get a center first before we buy into these model runs. IMO

The voice of reason!

[davidiowx]

Like I said the north shifts are over and expect the next run to be probably more west than that

This is a definitive statement. Changes are likely and additional model variations are set to occur. This isnt the first time you've made this mistake in the past few pages.

I would suggest ignoring that person. They have been model hugging and throwing out irrational statements for the past 2/3 days. That poster should post some information to support their claim. Instead they just keep hopping on every single model run and preaching it like it is the gospel.

[cycloneye]

The 00z runs of the models will be very important because they will get data from the gulfstream jet that will fly in the afternoon to sample the upper atmosphere.

[ConvergenceZone]

Like I said the north shifts are over and expect the next run to be probably more west than that

Yea, could be more in south Texas then as opposed to Cental Texas. But it's way to early to say that North shifts are over, when we don't even have a storm yet

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Like I said the north shifts are over and expect the next run to be probably more west than that

This is a definitive statement. Changes are likely and additional model variations are set to occur. This isnt the first time you've made this mistake in the past few pages.

I would suggest ignoring that person. They have been model hugging and throwing out irrational statements for the past 2/3 days. That poster should post some information to support their claim. Instead they just keep hopping on every single model run and preaching it like it is the gospel.

Yall are model hugging based on the averages of all models middle Texas coast down to the border is at the greatest risk !

[NDG]

12z GFS is starting to trend towards the Euro of not moving too fast after landfall, not good for TX. IMO.

[ronyan]

I'm not sure why some of these posts are being allowed to be honest. This is models thread.

[BigB0882]

Does the GFS have a NE turn at all?

[ronyan]

12z GFS brings this back over SE TX in the 5-6 day period. Moving SE.

[Tireman4]

Let's get a center first before we buy into these model runs. IMO

The voice of reason!

Agreed. Guys, this is a fluid situation. I realize I am just a historian and not a meteorologist, but we do not have a center yet. Let us get Gonzo in there, sample the air and go with that. Also, low leve recon will be in there tomorrow. Just stay vigilant. I agree with Stormcenter and Stormreader...stay calm. ...and..this is a model thread. The discussion thread is seperate...

[NDG]

Through at least Sunday night the GFS and Euro are almost identical.

[BigB0882]

12z GFS brings this back over SE TX in the 5-6 day period. Moving SE.

SE!? Yikes.

[jasons2k]

All, it's too early to declare any model shifting as "over." We still don't have a defined center and the system is still over the Yucatan. As Cycloneye pointed out, the Gulfstream data will be ingested into the overnight runs. Things should settle down, hopefully tomorrow, but time is running short on this system. As a reminder, it's always best to prepare for a category worse than forecast.

The other thing to note is a just a small difference in intensity and the influence of the trough will make a BIG difference in the final landfall location. None of those parameters are clear yet. Just a small shift at the last minute, left or right, could be the difference of 100 miles are more. This one will need to be monitored right up until the end, and potentially well after landfall.

[ronyan]

12z GFS brings this back over SE TX in the 5-6 day period. Moving SE.

SE!? Yikes.

Southeast towards matagorda bay and then due east towards galveston bay. Very slow movement during hours 114-150.

[ColdMiser123]

12z CMC has a landfall near Corpus Christi. Hard to tell MSLP from WSI.