ATL: HARVEY - Models

[cycloneye]

HWRF at 60 hours.

[hohnywx]

HWRF substantially weaker so far

The models are trending away from a cat 3 hurricane striking Texas

This is good, but one cycle of model runs does not equal a trend. Let's hope subsequent model runs continue to show this.

[wxman57]

G-IV will be taking off from Tampa shortly to sample the atmosphere across the Gulf ahead of Harvey. Hopefully, the data get into the 00 model runs this evening:

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/08/22/noaas-g-iv-hurricane-hunter-jet-will-fly-around-the-remnants-of-harvey/

[ROCK]

hmmm so whats worse....cat 3 over and done with in 6-8 hours or 48 inches of rain....still debating..

[cycloneye]

66 hours east of Brownsville.

[stormreader]

hmmm so whats worse....cat 3 over and done with in 6-8 hours or 48 inches of rain....still debating..

I think that's an easy one. Rainfall with overflowing rivers etc..... incredible property loss. Billions of dollars in damage in La last year with 30 inches over two days.

[ROCK]

hmmm so whats worse....cat 3 over and done with in 6-8 hours or 48 inches of rain....still debating..

I think that's an easy one. Rainfall with overflowing rivers etc..... incredible property loss. Billions of dollars in damage in La last year with 30 inches over two days.

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

[cycloneye]

HWRF at 75 hours deepening to 976 mbs east of Corpus Christi.

[ConvergenceZone]

HWRF substantially weaker so far

The models are trending away from a cat 3 hurricane striking Texas

Yea I think the focus is going to be a devastating flooding event for Texas for several days, which is what the models are trending towards

[hohnywx]

hmmm so whats worse....cat 3 over and done with in 6-8 hours or 48 inches of rain....still debating..

I think that's an easy one. Rainfall with overflowing rivers etc..... incredible property loss. Billions of dollars in damage in La last year with 30 inches over two days.

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

Except that the UKMET has a stellar reputation and the NAM is worth zero in tropical forecasting.

[cycloneye]

Landfall near CC.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I think that's an easy one. Rainfall with overflowing rivers etc..... incredible property loss. Billions of dollars in damage in La last year with 30 inches over two days.

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

Except that the UKMET has a stellar reputation and the NAM is worth zero in tropical forecasting.

The UKMET is known for false alarms and this year it hasn't been good at all

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet been really good but who cares how strong this will be it's going to be a major flooding event and I mean could be bad

[Tireman4]

Again, until we have a center from which to start, the model tracks are conjecture. Until we get a plane ( upper air) in there today and tonight..and recon tomorrow..and the mess gets off the coast, the models are swinging at air...just my opinion. Whomever gets this, it will be a rain event. Do not just look at the center going in. There is LOTS of moisture for it to work with and carry..plus that frontal boundary....

[stormreader]

hmmm so whats worse....cat 3 over and done with in 6-8 hours or 48 inches of rain....still debating..

I think that's an easy one. Rainfall with overflowing rivers etc..... incredible property loss. Billions of dollars in damage in La last year with 30 inches over two days.

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

I don't know if you saw it, Rock, by I think I favor (more or less) that UKMET solution. I didn't actually see the graphics, but looked at posted coordinates. My understanding is that it brings a storm just off the extreme upper Texas coast, perhaps off the Port Arthur/Sabine Pass area. I favor that over the mid-Texas coast models. Organization of storm in GOM, can begin at anytime, and we'll be in a better position to know.

[Tireman4]

I think that's an easy one. Rainfall with overflowing rivers etc..... incredible property loss. Billions of dollars in damage in La last year with 30 inches over two days.

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

I don't know if you saw it, Rock, by I think I favor (more or less) that UKMET solution. I didn't actually see the graphics, but looked at posted coordinates. My understanding is that it brings a storm just off the extreme upper Texas coast, perhaps off the Port Arthur/Sabine Pass area. I favor that over the mid-Texas coast models. Organization of storm in GOM, can begin at anytime, and we'll be in a better position to know.

Yep....Yep...Yep...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I think that's an easy one. Rainfall with overflowing rivers etc..... incredible property loss. Billions of dollars in damage in La last year with 30 inches over two days.

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

I don't know if you saw it, Rock, by I think I favor (more or less) that UKMET solution. I didn't actually see the graphics, but looked at posted coordinates. My understanding is that it brings a storm just off the extreme upper Texas coast, perhaps off the Port Arthur/Sabine Pass area. I favor that over the mid-Texas coast models. Organization of storm in GOM, can begin at anytime, and we'll be in a better position to know.

All 12Z models have shifted back west a little lIke i Said the east shifts are over we are close in time looks like anywhere from South padre to Matagorda Bay I actually expect this to hit near the border !

[hohnywx]

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

Except that the UKMET has a stellar reputation and the NAM is worth zero in tropical forecasting.

The UKMET is known for false alarms and this year it hasn't been good at all

Any evidence to back up your claims? I posted above the statistics showing the track record of the UKMET. What say you?

[Tireman4]

I know this is the models thread, but the HGX office deals with the models in their 10 am AFD.....


Monitoring the tropical wave over the northern Yucatan peninsula
that is forecast to be over the southern Bay of Campeche this
time tomorrow. Obviously...since the remnants of Harvey are a very
disorganized wave over land...current confidence is very low on
this system`s eventual track. Once this wave does get into the bay
and evolves into closed off low is when the deterministic models
will have a better fix (initiation point) to ultimately increase
confidence in subsequent model tracks. With that being said...now
is the time to review your hurricane plan and begin thinking
about how you will enact your plan in a few days if and when a
tropical cyclone does reach the Texas coastline. Stay tuned! 31


Hence, we wait.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Except that the UKMET has a stellar reputation and the NAM is worth zero in tropical forecasting.

The UKMET is known for false alarms and this year it hasn't been good at all

Any evidence to back up your claims? I posted above the statistics showing the track record of the UKMET. What say you?

You only posted the track records of the past not 2017 !!!! They have updated it this past year and it has been horrible!!!! 92L is a prime example it predicted it to be a hurricane by now a few days ago and it did horrible with cindy and let's not forget Franklin !