ATL: MARIA - Models

[tolakram]

trend

[Ken711]

Pretty sure the Outer Banks will be in the 5PM NHC cone with the west shifts.

['CaneFreak]

Never say never in the tropics. That's all I have to say.

[northjaxpro]

Never say never in the tropics. That's all I have to say.

That is excellent advice!! This is my personal mantra!!

[invest man]

Pretty sure the Outer Banks will be in the 5PM NHC cone with the west shifts.

My guess would be from Jacksonville NC to Manteo! For now! Looks like Jose will die out and become a none issue. CMC I'm afraid to say looks very possible. Looks like the pressure and strength by the time it nears 32N appears probable. Not sure GFS has strength still overdone.

[Fountainguy97]

Pretty sure the Outer Banks will be in the 5PM NHC cone with the west shifts.

My guess would be from Jacksonville NC to Manteo! For now! Looks like Jose will die out and become a none issue. CMC I'm afraid to say looks very possible. Looks like the pressure and strength by the time it nears 32N appears probable. Not sure GFS has strength still overdone.

GFS does indeed have Jose a few MB too strong at initialization. CMC on the other hand may be a tad too weak. The key isn't really the pressure but more the 500MB energy associated with Jose. If the 500MB opens up quicker and the energy is shredded quicker the ridge WILL push Maria into the coast.

IF this 500mb energy opens up 6-12 hrs quicker than what the GFS shows (very very possible as real time obs may be suggesting the 500mb energy is not as defined as many models have it) it will be a NC hit.

[capepoint]

Now that Maria has about a 99.9999% chance of missing the USA Mainland, hopefully we will get a nice break now

chances of direct impacts are a LOT higher than that. That statement has zero basis in reality.

Ensembles say there is a 35 percent chance of this passing within 125 miles of the outer Banks

Eh, that's ok. We have apparently not been considered part of the US for quite some time by some people lol.

[NDG]

12z Euro is almost identical to yesterday's 12z run through 120hrs, slightly S & W but not as west as last night's run. Is a little faster in it exiting out to sea after 120 hrs.

[ColdFront77]

I don't take my eye off her until she passes my latitude.

That doesn't make a difference with possibilities of southwestward movements.

[Fountainguy97]

12z Euro is almost identical to yesterday's 12z run through 120hrs, slightly S & W but not as west as last night's run. Is a little faster in it exiting out to sea after 120 hrs.

It's identical for Maria's track but much weaker with Jose and more ridging. May be a case where upper levels changed but surface didn't rly catch up because looks like there was a big enough ridge increase on the euro to push Maria further west but that didn't happen.

[stormlover2013]

I think the gfs and euro have a pretty good grasp on maria!!!

[gatorcane]

Most models take this out to sea.

[ConvergenceZone]

Most models take this out to sea.

Exactly! That's what I've been trying to say.

[dukeblue219]

Most models take this out to sea.

Exactly! That's what I've been trying to say.

A lot of those tracks will still kill somebody, somewhere in the Outer Banks. It's no Cat 5 into Miami, but this one is still well worth watching for the East Coast from NC on up. The storm doesn't have to make landfall to have a notable impact.

[Vdogg]

Maria is turning around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
high centered south of Bermuda, and the initial motion estimate is
335/8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward by 36 hours when it
moves between the high and a developing cut-off low near the U.S.
Gulf coast, and that northward motion, with some east-west wiggles,
is likely to continue through day 5. The new track models have
shifted significantly westward on this cycle, leaving the
interpolated version of the previous forecast (OFCI) by itself on
the eastern edge of the guidance suite. Oddly enough, the ECMWF
model went from being on the west side of the guidance envelope to
the east side, so the westward shift of the new NHC forecast on
days 3 through 5 only goes as far as that model and the TVCN
consensus.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2041.shtml

The NHC thinks enough of the westward shifts in the models to alter their guidance track. The outer edge of the track now includes the very edge of the Outer Banks. Those proclaiming this a done deal and OTS should probably hold off on that for just a bit.

[Vdogg]

18z GFS getting dangerously close to Carolina in hr 78...

[Vdogg]

Stronger ridge. Left hook at 102. Gonna be close. Trend is not our friend today.

[tolakram]

[funster]

woah... very close to landfall in outerbanks at hour 126. still not moving east yet (maybe stalled)

[Vdogg]

I need to learn how to post gifs. At hr 114, very close to landfall on OBX. At this position SeVA and Obx would experience strong TS to Hurricane conditions. Need to see if trend holds for 00z. One more west shift is landfall.