ATL: HARVEY - Models

[ATCcane]

looks like HMON has shifted southward into Mexico

It seems the HMON has been consistently south. I wonder what it sees that all the others don't? Would be quite a coup for the new model if it ended up being correct.

[NDG]

12z HWRF seems too fast.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The 18Z spaghetti models will likely show a more border hit or corpus christi !

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z HWRF seems too fast.

It does move it around fast I don't trust this model often but the HMON looks more reasonable

[mcheer23]

The 18Z spaghetti models will likely show a more border hit or corpus christi !

Based on what?

[stormreader]

that's a good point...UKMET is the outlier as is the NAM. The thing about NAM is its pretty could with CONUS features and timing...it should be considered.

I don't know if you saw it, Rock, by I think I favor (more or less) that UKMET solution. I didn't actually see the graphics, but looked at posted coordinates. My understanding is that it brings a storm just off the extreme upper Texas coast, perhaps off the Port Arthur/Sabine Pass area. I favor that over the mid-Texas coast models. Organization of storm in GOM, can begin at anytime, and we'll be in a better position to know.

All 12Z models have shifted back west a little lIke i Said the east shifts are over we are close in time looks like anywhere from South padre to Matagorda Bay I actually expect this to hit near the border !

You may very well be right hurricane master. Respect your opinion. The consensus is definitely on your side. Let's see the model output upon the formation of a true cyclone in the GOM.

[Blinhart]

The 18Z spaghetti models will likely show a more border hit or corpus christi !

Don't think there is a chance of a Mexico/Texas border hit, more like Louisiana/Texas border hit.

[NDG]

12z HWRF seems too fast.

It does move it around fast I don't trust this model often but the HMON looks more reasonable

They both stink, IMO. I had high hopes this year with HWRF after doing fairly well last year, but it let me down this year.

[Tireman4]

When all else fails, XTRP..the best in town...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The 18Z spaghetti models will likely show a more border hit or corpus christi !

Don't think there is a chance of a Mexico/Texas border hit, more like Louisiana/Texas border hit.

Maybe after stalling but no model shows this hitting Louisiana first except 1 Euro ESEMBLE member so I'm pretty sure right now it would be safe to say that this is a southern texas system then it stalls and moves towards Louisiana

[davidiowx]

[Blinhart]

So if there is a 12 to 18 hour slower movement to this system it will move more N or NE and hit anywhere from Port Arthur to Pensacola.

[Hurricaneman]

So if there is a 12 to 18 hour slower movement to this system it will move more N or NE and hit anywhere from Port Arthur to Pensacola.

I'm thinking the models initialized in the wrong spot, it seems to be developing on the north coast of the Yucatán at the moment

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running, I am also DELETING useless posts in this thread. Please keep this about model runs and direct discussion of them.

[tolakram]

[hd44]

12z Euro weaker compared to 24 hours ago. Pretty broad low.

[hohnywx]

The UKMET is known for false alarms and this year it hasn't been good at all

Any evidence to back up your claims? I posted above the statistics showing the track record of the UKMET. What say you?

You only posted the track records of the past not 2017 !!!! They have updated it this past year and it has been horrible!!!! 92L is a prime example it predicted it to be a hurricane by now a few days ago and it did horrible with cindy and let's not forget Franklin !

Please stop posting information based on zero factual evidence. The forecast verification this year is coming in with less track error than last year:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... s/nhem2017

[tolakram]

Weatherbell - 1006MB low at 36 hours

[hd44]

Ukmet is stronger at 48 hours. Gfs weaker and still east. Ecmwf most west and 1005 mb.

[hd44]

Ecmwf approaching landfall near Brownsville as a weak tropical storm at 72 hours.