ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

Finally might be seeing some convection on the NE side

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

VDM 992MB which is lower than most, if not all, of the models had Nate at.

Already down to 993; no? Models underestimating the strength?

Think this is gonna be real difficult for the models to measure because of that system that moved thru the straights. Hopefully they can get it together incase this does end up a little stronger than anticipated.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

So as Aric was trying to point out last night, which I think I understand, the inhibiting factors are speed of the storm and limited inflow on the west side due to the unnamed storm. It appears unnamed might not be an issue as convection is building NW of the Yuk.

Ya this looks much less of a mess than it did yesterday.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070002
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 23 20171006
235230 1945N 08700W 8429 01518 0039 +175 +121 283019 019 017 000 03
235300 1944N 08702W 8428 01521 0038 +177 +107 281019 019 014 001 00
235330 1943N 08703W 8430 01519 0039 +178 +109 282019 020 016 000 03
235400 1942N 08703W 8423 01529 0041 +175 +114 278020 020 /// /// 03
235430 1941N 08701W 8430 01521 0040 +178 +110 270019 020 /// /// 03
235500 1942N 08700W 8431 01518 0039 +175 +114 272019 019 015 000 03
235530 1943N 08658W 8433 01517 0038 +175 +112 270020 020 015 000 00
235600 1943N 08656W 8429 01521 0040 +175 +122 272019 020 018 000 03
235630 1944N 08654W 8428 01523 0040 +170 +125 273020 020 017 000 03
235700 1944N 08652W 8430 01519 0040 +172 +121 271020 020 018 001 00
235730 1945N 08650W 8428 01521 0040 +175 +118 273020 021 018 000 00
235800 1945N 08649W 8430 01521 0039 +175 +117 274021 021 015 001 03
235830 1946N 08647W 8428 01523 0038 +175 +115 274022 022 019 000 00
235900 1946N 08645W 8432 01517 0037 +175 +140 275021 022 018 001 03
235930 1947N 08643W 8432 01519 0038 +175 +144 278021 022 019 000 03
000000 1947N 08641W 8428 01522 0038 +175 +145 277022 022 019 001 03
000030 1947N 08639W 8430 01520 0035 +175 +145 274023 023 020 000 03
000100 1948N 08637W 8430 01519 0036 +179 +144 271023 023 020 001 03
000130 1948N 08635W 8429 01519 0035 +180 +148 272023 023 019 001 00
000200 1949N 08633W 8430 01518 0034 +180 +151 271023 023 019 001 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

So as Aric was trying to point out last night, which I think I understand, the inhibiting factors are speed of the storm and limited inflow on the west side due to the unnamed storm. It appears unnamed might not be an issue as convection is building NW of the Yuk.

Ya this looks much less of a mess than it did yesterday.

its the pressure field that will be the problem.. you want low to high.. not low high low .. unless that entire feature elongates and falls apart it will struggle. which currently its is definately becoming less of an issue.. still causing this to race nnw though creating those stacking issues we see now.

[Alyono]

I've seen no evidence at all that shows 55 kt winds

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070012
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 24 20171007
000230 1949N 08632W 8429 01520 0035 +177 +153 272023 024 020 000 00
000300 1950N 08630W 8428 01521 0035 +175 +151 270024 024 022 000 03
000330 1950N 08628W 8432 01518 0037 +175 +155 268024 024 019 001 03
000400 1951N 08626W 8429 01521 0035 +175 +160 265025 025 022 000 03
000430 1951N 08624W 8433 01517 0035 +176 +158 266025 025 023 000 00
000500 1951N 08622W 8429 01521 0037 +175 +160 263026 026 023 000 03
000530 1952N 08620W 8429 01522 0037 +175 +160 263026 026 023 000 00
000600 1952N 08618W 8434 01515 0036 +175 +160 264024 025 024 001 00
000630 1953N 08616W 8427 01523 0036 +173 +168 266023 024 023 001 05
000700 1953N 08614W 8427 01523 0034 +173 +170 266024 025 022 001 03
000730 1954N 08612W 8433 01517 //// +172 //// 269024 024 023 001 01
000800 1954N 08611W 8422 01527 //// +170 //// 262025 029 023 001 05
000830 1955N 08609W 8432 01515 0034 +175 +167 263027 028 019 000 00
000900 1955N 08607W 8432 01516 0034 +175 +167 261027 027 022 001 03
000930 1956N 08605W 8430 01519 0034 +177 +166 259026 027 024 001 03
001000 1956N 08603W 8429 01520 0033 +178 +164 257026 027 024 000 00
001030 1956N 08601W 8430 01519 0034 +180 +165 253026 026 025 001 03
001100 1957N 08559W 8429 01521 0033 +178 +167 252027 027 025 001 00
001130 1957N 08557W 8432 01517 0033 +175 +170 253028 029 026 001 00
001200 1958N 08555W 8430 01519 0035 +174 +174 246029 029 026 002 05
$$
;

[Frank P]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...CENTER NOW MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[Frank P]

pressure 990 mb and winds at 65 mph per the NHC at 7 pm

[bella_may]

85% chance of a getting a hurricane according to the hurricane tracker app. Intensity already ahead of schedule

[gatorcane]

I find it hard to believe all the models including the reliable GFS and ECMWF will have greatly underestimated the eventual strength at landfall. Even the CMC is only 998MB and usually it is too intense. They clearly are seeing something that would prevent RI.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

So as Aric was trying to point out last night, which I think I understand, the inhibiting factors are speed of the storm and limited inflow on the west side due to the unnamed storm. It appears unnamed might not be an issue as convection is building NW of the Yuk.

https://i.imgur.com/ZtSnQGM.png

Ya this looks much less of a mess than it did yesterday.

its the pressure field that will be the problem.. you want low to high.. not low high low .. unless that entire feature elongates and falls apart it will struggle. which currently its is definitely becoming less of an issue.. still causing this to race nnw though creating those stacking issues we see now.

Any chance of Nate slowing down any or is he just gonna chug along at this pace the whole way?

[NDG]

I've seen no evidence at all that shows 55 kt winds

70 knot flight level winds just east of the center so if we do the reduction maybe.

[wxman57]

Think they will move some hurricane warnings eastward or wait to see if it continues on east side of track for the 11pm update?

I doubt it, unless the Euro and GFS make a drastic shift to the right tonight.

12Z Euro ensembles shifted a little west. Consensus is for the center to just barely pass east of New Orleans then move inland for good near the LA/MS border. NHC may need to nudge the track a little west tonight if this trend continues.

[Big Easy Breeze]

I've seen no evidence at all that shows 55 kt winds

Interesting.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I've seen no evidence at all that shows 55 kt winds

I guess they thought this was representative:

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070022
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 25 20171007
001230 1958N 08553W 8429 01520 0036 +174 +173 243029 029 028 002 01
001300 1959N 08551W 8431 01518 0035 +173 +173 239029 029 032 002 01
001330 1959N 08549W 8429 01522 //// +169 //// 237030 030 033 003 05
001400 2000N 08547W 8432 01519 //// +168 //// 237029 030 032 002 01
001430 2000N 08545W 8429 01522 0040 +171 //// 236030 030 031 003 01
001500 2000N 08543W 8430 01522 0040 +170 //// 235031 032 030 005 05
001530 2001N 08541W 8428 01522 0039 +171 //// 234030 031 030 003 05
001600 2001N 08539W 8429 01523 0038 +171 //// 234030 031 030 002 01
001630 2002N 08537W 8429 01522 //// +171 //// 234031 032 032 002 05
001700 2002N 08536W 8433 01518 0037 +174 +170 230031 031 031 002 00
001730 2003N 08534W 8430 01522 0038 +175 //// 229031 031 032 003 01
001800 2003N 08532W 8429 01524 0039 +174 +173 228031 032 033 003 05
001830 2004N 08530W 8430 01521 0044 +173 //// 229031 032 031 004 01
001900 2004N 08528W 8432 01521 //// +169 //// 227031 031 032 004 01
001930 2004N 08526W 8427 01526 0044 +173 +173 229030 031 033 004 00
002000 2005N 08524W 8429 01525 0041 +175 +164 228032 033 032 004 03
002030 2005N 08522W 8429 01527 0042 +174 +166 233034 034 028 003 00
002100 2006N 08520W 8432 01523 0042 +175 +165 230034 034 028 002 03
002130 2006N 08518W 8432 01524 0045 +170 +168 227034 034 030 001 00
002200 2007N 08516W 8427 01528 0044 +173 +165 223033 034 029 001 03
$$
;

[NDG]

I think that those 55 knot surface winds are on the SE quadrant of Nate, the one quadrant the recons have not sampled yet, which looks like the AF recon is heading that way next.

[Alyono]

I've seen no evidence at all that shows 55 kt winds

I guess they thought this was representative:

that SFMR was clearly invalid. It spiked from 35 kt the previous ob to 55 kt. Winds quickly decreased.

I suspect Berg went with the 700mb flight level to surface ratio using 90%. That despite SFMR showing that is clearly invalid in this case. It's running closer to 70%

[SueOrleans]

Hi, all. Just a big thank you to eveyone and a check in. I rely on S2K for more nuanced info than local news provides. Im currently waiting in line for gas here in the Greater New Orleans area. Stations are starting to run low on fuel. Seems to be a good mix of folks here prepping just in case and completely disregarding Nate's potential impact. Best of luck to everyone in the cone and beyond!