ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I've seen no evidence at all that shows 55 kt winds

I guess they thought this was representative:
https://i.imgur.com/UEwcmrx.jpg

that SFMR was clearly invalid. It spiked from 35 kt the previous ob to 55 kt. Winds quickly decreased.

I suspect Berg went with the 700mb flight level to surface ratio using 90%. That despite SFMR showing that is clearly invalid in this case. It's running closer to 70%

But that was where the highest flight level winds of the entire mission so far were found:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 57 knots (65.6 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 59 knots (67.9 mph)

I would say it was real, but I don't know about representative. (103 nautical miles NNE, 14 degrees, of the center) 30 second flight level winds then decreased to about 45 knots, then up to 54 knots and then they went through the center. All the SFMR has been lower so far.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070032
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 26 20171007
002230 2007N 08514W 8432 01525 0043 +175 +160 219035 035 030 000 00
002300 2008N 08512W 8431 01526 0045 +175 +167 218034 035 029 001 03
002330 2008N 08510W 8430 01527 0045 +175 +166 213034 035 029 002 00
002400 2008N 08508W 8429 01527 0045 +174 +170 209034 034 029 002 03
002430 2009N 08506W 8429 01529 0046 +170 +165 208034 035 032 001 05
002500 2009N 08505W 8429 01528 0047 +171 +163 207034 035 030 001 05
002530 2010N 08503W 8436 01522 0048 +170 +160 208034 036 032 002 05
002600 2010N 08501W 8430 01528 0049 +173 +158 206034 035 033 001 03
002630 2011N 08459W 8428 01534 0048 +174 +157 203034 034 032 000 03
002700 2011N 08457W 8429 01533 0050 +173 +163 204034 034 026 002 00
002730 2011N 08455W 8430 01533 0049 +175 +157 202035 035 030 001 00
002800 2012N 08453W 8427 01535 0048 +178 +158 201036 037 029 000 03
002830 2012N 08451W 8432 01531 0051 +171 +167 197035 037 032 001 01
002900 2013N 08449W 8425 01537 //// +165 //// 201034 035 030 001 01
002930 2013N 08448W 8430 01535 //// +168 //// 201037 038 030 001 05
003000 2013N 08446W 8431 01534 //// +170 //// 200036 041 025 002 05
003030 2014N 08444W 8424 01541 //// +174 //// 199034 035 024 001 01
003100 2014N 08442W 8432 01534 //// +169 //// 198033 034 025 002 01
003130 2015N 08440W 8423 01540 //// +166 //// 199033 034 024 001 05
003200 2016N 08439W 8426 01545 //// +157 //// 191031 033 /// /// 05
$$
;

[pcolaman]

Looks a few degrees to the east, what kind of implications will this have in the latter track?

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/916454468111265793

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070042
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 27 20171007
003230 2017N 08439W 8430 01535 //// +167 //// 189031 033 024 005 01
003300 2018N 08441W 8430 01534 //// +163 //// 201035 039 030 005 01
003330 2020N 08442W 8422 01540 //// +166 //// 206037 041 029 003 05
003400 2021N 08443W 8440 01522 //// +168 //// 200036 040 027 001 01
003430 2022N 08445W 8430 01532 //// +170 //// 199036 037 027 001 01
003500 2023N 08446W 8428 01533 //// +173 //// 195035 036 030 001 05
003530 2025N 08447W 8430 01531 0048 +175 +172 193037 037 030 001 01
003600 2026N 08449W 8429 01532 0048 +175 +165 195037 038 030 000 00
003630 2027N 08450W 8429 01533 0049 +174 +169 195038 038 032 000 00
003700 2029N 08452W 8428 01531 0046 +179 +164 193038 039 033 001 00
003730 2030N 08453W 8433 01526 0045 +179 +167 194039 039 033 002 03
003800 2031N 08454W 8429 01530 0045 +175 +169 194040 040 034 002 00
003830 2032N 08456W 8430 01527 0042 +176 +163 195041 041 033 001 03
003900 2034N 08457W 8430 01524 0041 +180 +153 195043 043 032 001 03
003930 2035N 08458W 8429 01527 0039 +182 +152 193042 043 035 001 00
004000 2036N 08500W 8431 01522 0038 +180 +149 193043 045 035 002 00
004030 2038N 08501W 8430 01522 0045 +167 +160 197045 046 036 006 00
004100 2039N 08502W 8432 01518 0047 +161 +158 202046 047 035 010 00
004130 2040N 08504W 8429 01520 0044 +164 +160 201048 049 037 010 00
004200 2041N 08505W 8430 01517 0044 +169 +169 201046 047 038 012 03
$$
;

[Alyono]

I find it hard to believe all the models including the reliable GFS and ECMWF will have greatly underestimated the eventual strength at landfall. Even the CMC is only 998MB and usually it is too intense. They clearly are seeing something that would prevent RI.

that's the danger of using modelology and not meteorology

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070052
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 28 20171007
004230 2043N 08506W 8429 01517 0039 +163 +161 200048 050 038 010 00
004300 2044N 08508W 8429 01516 0037 +170 +170 202047 049 039 010 00
004330 2045N 08509W 8429 01513 0031 +174 +174 202050 051 038 011 00
004400 2047N 08510W 8431 01511 0027 +174 +173 204049 050 041 009 00
004430 2048N 08512W 8430 01508 0027 +172 +172 203053 054 041 009 03
004500 2049N 08513W 8430 01508 0021 +176 +172 203052 054 040 009 00
004530 2050N 08514W 8430 01505 0020 +177 +172 206051 051 040 008 00
004600 2052N 08516W 8430 01506 0022 +173 +172 210052 052 039 009 00
004630 2053N 08517W 8429 01504 0020 +174 +171 213053 054 039 008 00
004700 2054N 08518W 8427 01504 0024 +175 +175 214053 055 042 009 00
004730 2055N 08519W 8430 01499 0021 +176 +176 212054 055 042 009 00
004800 2056N 08521W 8429 01499 0020 +177 +177 212053 054 045 009 00
004830 2058N 08522W 8430 01495 0023 +176 +176 211054 055 043 015 00
004900 2059N 08523W 8436 01485 0025 +168 +168 208059 060 052 033 03
004930 2059N 08523W 8436 01485 0019 +174 +174 206059 061 050 031 03
005000 2101N 08526W 8442 01476 0013 +183 +183 212058 060 051 028 00
005030 2102N 08527W 8436 01479 0007 +184 +184 218056 059 052 031 03
005100 2104N 08528W 8439 01470 0006 +181 +181 221058 060 045 045 00
005130 2105N 08530W 8427 01480 0002 +180 +180 217057 062 047 035 03
005200 2106N 08531W 8417 01488 9994 +187 +187 222058 061 055 027 03
$$
;

62 kt FL, 51 kt SFMR so far.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force (around 845mb) through 8:42pm EDT.
NOAA (around 700mb) through 8:22pm EDT.

[NDG]

Hot off the press.

[Aric Dunn]

SE quad..
55kts sounds good

005100 2104N 08528W 8439 01470 0006 +181 +181 221058 060 045 045 00
005130 2105N 08530W 8427 01480 0002 +180 +180 217057 062 047 035 03
005200 2106N 08531W 8417 01488 9994 +187 +187 222058 061 055 027 03

[Aric Dunn]

Hot off the press.

was just about to post NOAA radar images show some better organization .. still no reall inner core yet.. but it is trying..

[pcolaman]

Hot off the press.

So how far is that from mhc track? Looks like a bit to me .imho

[Alyono]

for the first time, I am now seeing evidence of 55 kt surface winds

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force (around 845mb) through 8:52pm EDT.
NOAA (around 700mb) through 8:52pm EDT.

[emeraldislenc]

It is really trying to get better organized I think it will definitely be a hurricane when it strikes the gulf coast

[NDG]

for the first time, I am now seeing evidence of 55 kt surface winds

I told you they were going to be in the SE quadrant

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I've been out of it for the last few weeks, and then this thing appears.
I guess the atmosphere is making sure every part of the Gulf Coast gets hit by something this year.

[Aric Dunn]

Look how elongated the circulation is... the noname system has been intereacting and pulling the inflow away from NATE.. once NAte gets north of the channel and the noname system drops more to the south and weakens NATE will be able to consolidate more. this stretching of the pressure field to the north is what is causing nate to accelerate in the direction of that pressure change. next 12 hours or that should slowly be less of a factor. right now though it is keeping nate not vertically stacked.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070102
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 29 20171007
005230 2107N 08532W 8436 01466 9991 +184 +184 222058 060 054 011 00
005300 2108N 08533W 8431 01468 9986 +182 //// 225060 060 049 007 01
005330 2109N 08534W 8431 01463 9975 +185 //// 233061 062 051 005 01
005400 2110N 08535W 8425 01466 9966 +185 //// 236062 062 053 004 01
005430 2111N 08537W 8430 01457 9960 +187 //// 233059 063 052 005 01
005500 2113N 08538W 8430 01453 //// +183 //// 236057 059 054 002 01
005530 2114N 08539W 8425 01455 9958 +191 //// 238055 058 050 006 01
005600 2115N 08540W 8436 01438 9949 +192 //// 236052 055 052 003 01
005630 2116N 08541W 8428 01445 9940 +194 //// 238046 051 055 003 01
005700 2117N 08542W 8428 01445 //// +187 //// 241042 044 053 002 01
005730 2118N 08543W 8434 01435 //// +194 //// 239038 041 049 004 01
005800 2119N 08545W 8426 01441 //// +194 //// 243032 036 045 002 01
005830 2120N 08546W 8428 01438 9938 +191 //// 242032 035 039 003 05
005900 2121N 08547W 8432 01434 //// +190 //// 241029 030 032 002 05
005930 2122N 08548W 8427 01438 //// +198 //// 244028 029 030 001 05
010000 2124N 08549W 8430 01435 9921 +204 +195 245025 027 022 001 03
010030 2125N 08551W 8430 01435 9918 +210 +188 245023 024 018 001 00
010100 2126N 08552W 8425 01439 9920 +209 +185 242019 021 017 000 03
010130 2127N 08553W 8433 01429 9918 +211 +180 245015 017 012 001 03
010200 2129N 08553W 8430 01437 9924 +201 +188 240009 014 017 001 03
$$
;

63 kt FL, 54 kt SFMR. Pressure 992mb.