ATL: MARIA - Models

[Alyono]

aircraft data indicates this may be down to a low to mid range cat 2 now

That surprised me considering how the eye closed in. Is it going through an EWRC?

Think the wind field is spreading out. The pressure has remained constant at 953mb

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think the NE turn will be more gradual than that shown in earlier model runs, as the general trend seems to indicate. It may even occur after a stall.

[Alyono]

that said, the models do indicate a significant drop in pressure today and tomorrow. SHIPS has the shear dropping off in a few hours

[stormreader]

I think the NE turn will be more gradual than that shown in earlier model runs, as the general trend seems to indicate. It may even occur after a stall.

I don't really think so, Hybrid. Check latest Euro ensemble. All show that the turn NE will be radical and abrupt. I think that is a dangerous sign for the NC coast. I think it increases the liklihood that the storm will carry with it a somewhat more westerly component (and a landfall in NC) before being picked up the the oncoming trough and suddenly pushed out to sea. In other words, the storm really won't feel much of any influence from the trough until late (after the predominant influence of stronger ridging has had its way with Maria) after she has likely been pushed very near to the coast. So I think that a landfall is actually going to continue to gain traction with the models, and we will see them begin to call for that landfall somewhere around Atlantic NC.

[invest man]

A closer look at last night's Euro Ensembles.

Its the more westerly of the ensemble runs that I find interesting. That's because not only do they show that close approach to the coast of NC, but they also show a little more direct west push right onto the coast before the trough comes in to take the storm out to sea. Most of the ensemble simply shows a generally N move, then the trough comes to push NE. Will check forward speed and timing of Maria approach. If Maria makes its approach a little more quickly, then I think she is more susceptible to the little west push onto E N Carolina (and spending some significant time on the coast there). My best guess right now, is that those more westerly tracks are probably onto the correct solution. The High pressure further north will have built in enough to give the storm that push onto the coast. So I think a NC landfall just south of Cape Hatteras would be my call right now. Just north of Morehead City, but south of Hatteras.
Not as sure about NC geography---but right around Atlantic NC for best guess for landfall.

Your talking Cape Lookout area to Ocracoke into the Pamlico sound!

[emeraldislenc]

The next few days might be interesting. I will be watching the models very close.

[OuterBanker]

NWS 9:15 am Morehead

Discouragingly, the 12z model guidance continues to shift the
track westward and have slowed the system down and may impact
the area through Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, rough
surf and dangerous rip currents are likely through much of next
week, as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW
winds, minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will
be also possible, with the greatest threat along the Outer
Banks.


11:00 am NHC statement



KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast,
and it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday. These swells will likely
cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of
next week. For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.

Not exactly encouraging news.

[emeraldislenc]

Going to be interesting

[stormreader]

Going to be interesting

General observation: Regardless of Maria's mb pressure readings and forecast windspeed further north off the Carolina coast, this is not a good year to have a close encounter with a hurricane. Sounds simplistic, probably is. But the latest batch of storms have been running at Cat 4 and 5 strength in the deep tropics. Storms carrying an extra "pop" with them this year--reflected in wind speed, size of circulation, rainfall, or all of the above. Not very scientific, but seem to be carrying that extra "pop".

[invest man]

Going to be interesting

General observation: Regardless of Maria's mb pressure readings and forecast windspeed further north off the Carolina coast, this is not a good year to have a close encounter with a hurricane. Sounds simplistic, probably is. But the latest batch of storms have been running at Cat 4 and 5 strength in the deep tropics. Storms carrying an extra "pop" with them this year--reflected in wind speed, size of circulation, rainfall, or all of the above. Not very scientific, but seem to be carrying that extra "pop".

I observe this also. Could be latent heat & humidity along with hot SST in the basin and not as strong of shear in a widespread area as in years past. No scientist but an observer.

[Alyono]

looks like the GFS gets within 60 miles of Hatteras and brings winds of at least 50 kts

[Alyono]

Canadian makes a major EAST shift. It has a stronger Jose than 12 hours ago

[Vdogg]

Windshield wiper effect on GFS. 12z almost in the exact location as 0z, but slightly to the west of 6z. I think we're starting to hone in. Obx feeling hurricane effects, strong TS effects in SEVA

[seahawkjd]

looks like the GFS gets within 60 miles of Hatteras and brings winds of at least 50 kts

Pretty much the same as the 0z run?

[Alyono]

Windshield wiper effect on GFS. 12z almost in the exact location is 0z, but slightly to the west of 6z. I think we're starting to hone in. Obx feeling hurricane effects, strong TS effects in SEVA

it's not any farther west than 6Z. It is NORTH of 6Z. That is why the Outer Banks get a good hit here. Previously, it kept the winds south of the Outer Banks

[Vdogg]

Canadian makes a major EAST shift

Just when I thought we were getting consensus. Wait for the Euro it is...

[Alyono]

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 72.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2017 0 25.1N 72.4W 941 80
0000UTC 24.09.2017 12 26.9N 72.6W 938 84
1200UTC 24.09.2017 24 28.6N 73.1W 931 86
0000UTC 25.09.2017 36 30.0N 73.5W 941 70
1200UTC 25.09.2017 48 30.9N 73.9W 944 82
0000UTC 26.09.2017 60 32.2N 74.0W 943 82
1200UTC 26.09.2017 72 33.6N 74.3W 944 79
0000UTC 27.09.2017 84 34.5N 74.3W 947 80
1200UTC 27.09.2017 96 35.3N 74.0W 944 76
0000UTC 28.09.2017 108 35.5N 73.1W 954 70
1200UTC 28.09.2017 120 35.5N 71.3W 961 72
0000UTC 29.09.2017 132 35.5N 67.9W 972 60
1200UTC 29.09.2017 144 37.2N 63.0W 980 56

We are starting to see consensus for a close approach but a miss

[Vdogg]

Not sure what to make of the CMC. It's actually been fairly consistent most of this run. Makes me wonder what it saw to make that big shift east.

[Alyono]

Not sure what to make of the CMC. It's actually been fairly consistent most of this run. Makes me wonder what it saw to make that big shift east.

Jose is stronger, creates a larger weakness

[seahawkjd]

Not sure what to make of the CMC. It's actually been fairly consistent most of this run. Makes me wonder what it saw to make that big shift east.

Jose is stronger, creates a larger weakness

Is that likely? I thought Jose was toast.