ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I think I just noticed that the GFS run has convected feedback if you look it's the only model with a tail of vorticy to the north indicating the 500MB spin and the 850MB spin isn't aligned I don't buy this at all !

[Alyono]

This run of the GFS doesn't have the GIV data in it. Hopefully we will get at least some of that data in the 0z runs tonight.

yes it does. About half the sondes make it into the 18Z run. Generally, drops before 21Z go into the 18Z run

[Alyono]

structure appears broad on the GFS. Not exactly matching up with what we are seeing on satellite

[Kingarabian]

I think I just noticed that the GFS run has convected feedback if you look it's the only model with a tail of vorticy to the north indicating the 500MB spin and the 850MB spin isn't aligned I don't buy this at all !

Lol that's not convective feedback

[South Texas Storms]

This run of the GFS doesn't have the GIV data in it. Hopefully we will get at least some of that data in the 0z runs tonight.

yes it does. About half the sondes make it into the 18Z run. Generally, drops before 21Z go into the 18Z run

Ah good to know. Then I guess all of the data should be in for the 0z runs.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through 36 hours:

[hd44]

Dry air really limiting development on gfs on west side... however less dry air by 42 hours.

[ATCcane]

Texas looks to be the bullseye:

Not sure if it matters or not, but many of these appear to initialize somewhat south of where the llc appears to be developing on the NW tip of the Yucatan.

[Kingarabian]

GFS trend:

[Javlin]

its called that ULL which is enhancing the convection of Harv sling shoting Harv around it into the weakness then the high builds in and shunts this NE....timing is everything here...Does it do it before landfall or after? models are still bouncing but the UKMET has been pretty steadfast...and modes are upticking up the coast.. with Gonzo data tonight this will help a lot...

The ULL is a big factor in this and is still potent ATTM whatever the remains do they can't go through it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[davidiowx]

its called that ULL which is enhancing the convection of Harv sling shooting Harv around it into the weakness then the high builds in and shunts this NE....timing is everything here...Does it do it before landfall or after? models are still bouncing but the UKMET has been pretty steadfast...and modes are upticking up the coast.. with Gonzo data tonight this will help a lot...

The ULL is a big factor in this and is still potent ATTM whatever the remains do they can't go through it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

The ULL does look to be elongated now though

[Clint_TX]

its called that ULL which is enhancing the convection of Harv sling shooting Harv around it into the weakness then the high builds in and shunts this NE....timing is everything here...Does it do it before landfall or after? models are still bouncing but the UKMET has been pretty steadfast...and modes are upticking up the coast.. with Gonzo data tonight this will help a lot...

The ULL is a big factor in this and is still potent ATTM whatever the remains do they can't go through it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

The ULL does look to be elongated now though

Indeed

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through hour 60:

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Looks like the GFS is done trending NORTH 2 runs in a row showing the same location ! And I think it will trend towards the Euro at 0Z

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS even weaker through 12z Friday.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 72:

[sphelps8681]

Looks like the GFS is done trending NORTH 2 runs in a row showing the same location ! And I think it will trend towards the Euro at 0Z

Just curious what data you have to show that? Because I have seen models flip flop sometimes within in days of landfall so not sure why you would say that cause we still have no COC.

[Alyono]

GFS shows a well defined eye on the IR, and yet a weaker storm?

This GFS is having issues

[Steve]

structure appears broad on the GFS. Not exactly matching up with what we are seeing on satellite

Yeah and I'm not buying it this is the only model showing this and it draws it more north because of this

So let me get this straight just so I'm clear, you favor a border area hit, right?

[South Texas Storms]

Almost the exact same position as the 12z run for the GFS. It is weaker this run though.