ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260516
AF305 2009A HARVEY HDOB 31 20170826
050600 2804N 09646W 6963 02906 9743 +116 //// 194104 106 092 006 01
050630 2808N 09638W 6967 02984 9839 +108 +108 183097 105 092 006 03
050700 2809N 09636W 6961 03006 9874 +109 +109 178091 095 074 012 00
050730 2810N 09634W 6964 03011 9892 +109 +109 176089 090 074 009 00
050800 2811N 09632W 6963 03027 9886 +109 +109 176085 088 074 009 00
050830 2811N 09632W 6963 03027 9892 +108 +108 176084 086 072 009 00
050900 2811N 09632W 6963 03027 9892 +108 +108 176084 086 072 009 00
050930 2811N 09632W 6963 03027 9892 +108 +108 176084 086 072 009 00
051000 2811N 09632W 6963 03027 9892 +108 +108 176084 086 072 009 00
051030 2811N 09632W 6963 03027 9892 +108 +108 176084 086 072 009 00
051100 2816N 09621W 6962 03075 9930 +105 //// 172078 083 071 007 05
051130 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051200 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051230 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051300 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051330 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051400 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051430 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051500 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
051530 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9965 +102 +102 168077 077 /// /// 03
$$
;

Did the plane just stop transmitting?

Probably over land or having equipment trouble.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260525
AF305 2009A HARVEY HDOB 32 20170826
051600 2817N 09619W 6966 03076 9967 +101 //// 168075 077 /// /// 05
051630 2826N 09601W 6967 03121 //// +085 //// 167062 071 047 001 05
051700 2827N 09559W 6967 03126 //// +093 //// 168059 062 048 003 01
051730 2828N 09557W 6966 03130 0025 +094 //// 170059 060 045 003 01
051800 2828N 09557W 6966 03130 0025 +094 //// 170059 060 044 003 01
051830 2828N 09557W 6966 03130 0023 +095 //// 170060 061 044 003 05
051900 2831N 09552W 6945 03155 0030 +102 +102 170061 067 043 012 03
051930 2832N 09550W 6982 03111 0049 +103 +103 164063 069 048 033 00
052000 2833N 09548W 6952 03151 0055 +100 +100 156065 069 045 026 00
052030 2834N 09546W 6980 03123 0073 +087 +087 150060 061 043 023 03
052100 2834N 09545W 6964 03141 0063 +084 +084 148059 060 042 009 00
052130 2835N 09543W 6965 03140 0064 +082 //// 147059 060 043 006 01
052200 2836N 09541W 6969 03140 0045 +085 //// 148060 061 041 003 01
052230 2837N 09540W 6967 03146 0049 +086 +084 150060 061 041 002 01
052300 2838N 09538W 6967 03147 0051 +085 +082 152059 060 041 002 01
052330 2839N 09536W 6968 03148 0051 +090 +075 153059 061 040 001 00
052400 2839N 09535W 6965 03152 0053 +089 +072 155058 059 040 001 00
052430 2840N 09533W 6967 03153 0056 +088 +069 159058 058 038 001 00
052500 2841N 09531W 6970 03154 0060 +088 +068 160057 058 039 001 00
052530 2841N 09529W 6967 03154 0062 +087 +067 162057 058 040 001 00
$$
;

Back online.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260535
AF305 2009A HARVEY HDOB 33 20170826
052600 2841N 09528W 6965 03158 0060 +089 +066 163058 059 040 001 00
052630 2842N 09526W 6969 03161 0063 +088 +069 164058 059 040 001 00
052700 2842N 09524W 6958 03171 0070 +082 +071 163056 057 039 001 00
052730 2842N 09522W 6878 03263 0073 +077 +066 163056 058 038 001 00
052800 2842N 09520W 6690 03504 0071 +072 +046 167057 058 039 002 00
052830 2842N 09517W 6501 03743 0057 +069 +030 168055 057 041 001 00
052900 2843N 09515W 6322 03973 0051 +061 +021 169055 056 040 001 00
052930 2843N 09513W 6125 04238 0042 +050 +015 164054 056 040 001 00
053000 2843N 09510W 5881 04554 0020 +029 +004 164053 053 041 000 00
053030 2844N 09508W 5698 04814 0019 +019 -013 166053 054 040 001 03
053100 2845N 09506W 5533 05065 0040 +003 -023 171053 054 038 001 00
053130 2845N 09504W 5373 05302 0263 -010 -035 175052 053 038 001 00
053200 2846N 09502W 5231 05517 0278 -023 -049 178052 052 039 001 00
053230 2846N 09500W 5097 05722 0292 -035 -062 177050 051 038 001 00
053300 2847N 09457W 4962 05939 0309 -043 -078 179051 051 037 001 00
053330 2848N 09455W 4866 06091 0319 -048 -094 182051 051 035 001 00
053400 2848N 09453W 4844 06129 0318 -055 -092 181050 051 037 000 00
053430 2849N 09450W 4848 06114 0316 -055 -096 182050 050 037 000 00
053500 2850N 09447W 4845 06123 0317 -055 -095 183049 050 037 001 00
053530 2850N 09444W 4848 06113 0319 -056 -096 186048 048 036 001 00
$$

Mission over. Recon done as long as Harvey is inland but I am sure they will be ready in case it goes back over water.

[chaser1]

Has the Cape Coral/Ft. Meyers area floated away yet??

[caneman]

Anyone else look at IR satellite ? Looks like it's still trying to develop off the coast. The rain rate between Bradenten Cape Coral look even more intense than Harvey. My nephew lives down in Cape Coral. They are.getting a lot of flooding.

[chaser1]

Anyone else look at IR satellite ? Looks like it's still trying to develop off the coast. The rain rate between Bradenten Cape Coral look even more intense than Harvey. My nephew lives down in Cape Coral. They are.getting a lot of flooding.

This area off the southwest coast has been very persistent, yet appears to be drifting southwestward while the primary low is forecast to move off the East Central Fla. coastline later today. Oddly, there is zero weather associated right now with 92L with exception to the mass of convection which you mentioned flooding the SW coastline. Cant tell is that is more mid level, but i'm guessing that it'll eventually diminish in area coverage by late morning with its energy refiring along the trough line south and east of Orlando by later in the day. I swear, this is like the Invest that wouldn't die LOL.

[caneman]

Checking radar, there appears to be spin between Ft. Meyers and Port Charlotte. Had it not been for Harvey I think this may have developed. I'd say we.got lucky but Ft. Meyers and Cape Coral have some pretty bad flooding. Saw some photos from my nephew who lives down there

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. According to the surface analysis from the WPC and the NHC, they have analyzed a 1012 mb surface area of low pressure (92L) inland just east of Tampa an interesting (92L) has stayed along a trough axis just ahead of a frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. The trough, which is oriented from southwest to northeast across the Florida peninsula has apparently had 92L be nearly stationary near Tampa and has never crossed the state. It may finally be doing this now. So we do have a 92L inland across West Central Florida Peninsula early this morning.

[chaser1]

Good morning everyone. According to the surface analysis from the WPC and the NHC, they have analyzed a 1012 mb surface area of low pressure (92L)very near Tampa Bay, an interesting development in the past 12 to 24 hours. A surface low pressure area(92L) has developed on the southwestern portion of a trough, just ahead of a frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. The trough, which is oriented from southwest to northeast across the Florida peninsula has apparently had 92L be nearly stationary near Tampa and has become a more dominant feature throughout the past 12 to 24 hours and that energy has never crossed the state. So we do have a 92L over or near the West Central Florida Peninsula early this morning.

I agree how this feature has been dominant thus far yet no model I've seen seems to support a solution other than an eventual evolution somewhere northeast of your neck of the woods? Crazier, is that the feature itself appears to not be moving north along the trough line but seemingly in the opposite direction. That's primarily why I just cant fathom this feature continuing to persist. Either way, by the look of things 92L will finally be developing off the CONUS E. Seaboard, just in time for us to have to pay attention to what might just be our next potential threat from the east.

[northjaxpro]

A closer look at the 06Z surface analysis this morning



I agree with you chaser1 in that eventually 92L should merge with the frontal boundary somewhere just off the Southeast U.S. coast and drift northeast later this weekend. Also, by merging possibly with the front, 92L could possibly be sub-tropical in nature as well off the East Coast.

[xironman]

92l's time may be approaching, 42043 has a nice constant west wind http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023 though pressures are high

[Taffy]

North Cape Coral is definitely drowning in rain. 12 inches yesterday. Parts of Ft Myers is also experiencing flooding. I wish the blob would move.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of Florida
northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although some development
of this system is expected when it moves northeastward near the
southeast United States coast, it is becoming more likely that the
low will merge with a front before significant tropical or
subtropical development occurs. Regardless of development, heavy
rain and flooding is possible over portions of southern and central
Florida during the next few days. In addition, this system is
expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts
of Georgia and the Carolinas through early next week. Please refer
to products from your local National Weather Service forecast office
for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF from overnight developed 92L into a strong hurricane off the East Coast. With a negatively tilted trough to the west, I gotta wonder what kind of moisture transport setup we can get going. Right now ECMWF PWAT data says none, but the setup is interesting for sure https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/63 ... 0600z.html

[jlauderdal]

Over/Under Contest

Unders win it! FLL had 5.10 and that's the most i could find. Thanks for participating, I am looking forward to our next one. Thanks to the mods for their patience with our contest posts, I will find an alternative platform to run the actual contest next time.

jlauderdal

[xironman]

Easy to see the trough across FL that can give rise to the storm

[joey]

Easy to see the trough across FL that can give rise to the storm

will that blob to the sw of fl side be crossing over the state too thanks

[northjaxpro]

Apparently, we have two vorts along the trough axis just ahead of a frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast to off the SE U.S. coast. First, the area off the Northeast Florida coast in which you can see a spin just east of Jacksonville Beach.

There is also a spin down near the Tampa Bay area. 1012 mb Low Pressure is currently analyzed there at 15Z. The developing Low just off the coast of Jax is the one which is supposed to become the dominant feature and subsequently develop as it merges with the frontal boundary and head northeast.

[xironman]

Easy to see the trough across FL that can give rise to the storm.

will that blob to the sw of fl side be crossing over the state too thanks

I think the big blob off the south coast will eventually go away, now that the trough goes across the entire state maybe we could see a development around Daytona, lets see.

[Michele B]

Easy to see the trough across FL that can give rise to the storm

will that blob to the sw of fl side be crossing over the state too thanks

I think the big blob off the south coast will eventually go away, now that the trough goes across the entire state maybe we could see a development around Daytona, lets see.

Yeah, the one off Daytona looks more promising.

Right now, JBastardi is saying the low off Tampa Bay could become Irma.

Guess I'll just wait and see.