ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Heaviest squalls are now moving inland. Haven't yet found a wind above 25 kts. St. Pete has ENE winds at 17 mph, Sarasota has S wind at 29 mph with a peak gust to 39 mph in the past hour. Supports a depression moving ashore.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

...EMILY APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
11:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 31
Location: 27.6°N 82.8°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

There has been little change in Emily's overall structure as seen in
satellite and radar imagery over the past several hours. The
inner-core convection has waxed and waned while the outer convective
bands and rain shield on the south side of the small cyclone have
remained fairly steady. Velocity data from the NOAA Tampa Bay
WSR-88D Doppler radar has been indicating average velocities of
50-52 kt, with isolated bins of 55-62 kt, just south of the
circulation center between 4000-5000 ft altitude during the past few
hours. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent still
supports a surface wind speed estimate of 40 kt.

Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, after
which slow weakening is expected as Emily moves across the Florida
peninsula through tonight. After emerging off of the east-central
Florida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days
2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind
shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to
10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt,
which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening
until Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected
to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the
Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are
required for that area.

The initial motion estimate is 090/08 kt. Emily is approaching the
mouth of Tampa Bay, and landfall along the west-central Florida
coast should occur by early afternoon. After landfall, the latest
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Emily turning
east-northeastward tonight and moving across the central Florida
peninsula as a depression, and emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning. A mid-/upper-level trough currently
located over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward and
amplify along the southeastern U.S. coast by 24-36 h, accelerating
Emily to the northeast over the open Atlantic through the remainder
of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast track is just an update
and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
TVCN consensus model.

The primary threat with Emily is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across central an southern portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next day or two. However, a brief tornado will
be possible across central and southern Florida today, along with
isolated waterspouts over the coastal waters of southwestern
Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 27.6N 82.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 27.7N 81.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1200Z 28.9N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 02/0000Z 30.5N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 32.2N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 35.3N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 37.7N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[PTrackerLA]

Emily appears to be the first Gulf "home grown" system in many years. Can anyone think of the last gulf system like this that formed?

[Aric Dunn]

COnvection deeping very rappidly now.. wrapping around west side .. center is now inland. if those winds are going to be pulled down to the surface now is when it would happen with that type of convection. last couple frames from dopppler velocites very near the radar site showing 65kt plus winds just above the surface..


interesting..

maybe it will do a "fay " on us lol..

[HurricaneBelle]

Interesting statement at the 9:34 NWS statement Morehead, NC.
"Thursday...There is growing confidence that a tropical wave may
emerge into the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida
Wednesday into Thursday and travel up the coast. The low
pressure system in question currently sits just off the west
coast of central Florida. This will be something to watch in the
coming days, as the potential tropical system may track close
enough to bring rain showers to the NC coast."

Emily wasn't mentioned in the statement. Is this a separate entity, or do they not check with the NHC. Puzzling.

That's because it's a copy/paste from their 3:45AM discussion. Most WSOs only update their longer-term discussion in AFDs in the overnight and afternoon discussions; the ones in the morning and the evening are usually just updates for current conditions.

[otowntiger]

Looks like the bulk of the action will slide more towards south central Florida, well south of Orlando. Just noticed the rain chances here in Orlando have dropped to 30% as opposed to the 90% they were earlier. (That is according to TWC) That's ok as we've certainly had our share of rain lately.

[Aric Dunn]

is no one else noticing whats going on.. lol

[TheAustinMan]

We have a tornado warning issued for what is basically the center of circulation of a tropical cyclone... fascinating to see.

[TheStormExpert]

Emily appears to be the first Gulf "home grown" system in many years. Can anyone think of the last gulf system like this that formed?

Excluding the failed attempts back in 2015 the last home-grown TC system was back in 2010 with TD-#5.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Depression_Five_(2010)

[Aric Dunn]

We have a tornado warning issued for what is basically the center of circulation of a tropical cyclone... fascinating to see.
http://i.imgur.com/rhStbap.png

I guess its just me and you paying attention to this pretty amazing turn in developments.. The tornado warning is just silly.. the fact the center refomed so rapidly pretty much inland with velocities reaching into the 70 kt range almost all around the center.. .. long curved band wrapping around.. lol i guess it sort of has done a fay on us lol

[AutoPenalti]

What the hell? I just woke up with a TS on my door step.

[HurricaneRyan]

Emily getting wasted...unless she pulls an Allison

[Aric Dunn]

I actually have an small area just offshore in the bay on doppler velocities now of 80kt at 900 ft with a lot of 60 to 70 kts all around..

[gatorcane]

That is some pretty impressive convection that has developed just north of the center. Will be interesting to see if there are any damage reports out of this squall.

[floridasun78]

look like tampa may good weather soon as emily move east

[tolakram]

Impressive blowups in the visible loop.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6672.5&y=5390.5&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[northjaxpro]

It is amazing that Emily is pulling herself together just as she is heading inland.

Folks need to be extremely alert for quick, spin-up tornadoes down in West Central peninsula.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[TheStormExpert]

Made landfall around Longboat Key.