ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

I've been watching the recon and it appears to have a well defined LLC. This PTC stuff doesn't make any sense.

[afswo]

I do not agree on the use of the PTC designation for this system. There are some tropical cyclones where the PTC designation would be appropriate, say where evacuations might be in order, or something along those lines. For this one though, either call it a Tropical Depression (if they feel it has not reached Tropical Storm strength or organization) or leave it an Area of Investigation. I understand that Cuba and the Bahamas have warnings and watches issued, but here in the US the PTC designation will either lead to confusion or apathy. Just my two cents as a Pro Met who has to explain what this designation is all about!

[AdamFirst]

The reason for "Potential Tropical Cyclone" designation is only to create warnings for land areas in absence of an actually defined tropical cyclone, but is on the cusp of declaration. It's smart, IMO.

[sunnyday]

Local met says so fl is not in the cone and has no taste watches or warnings. That says a lot

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm surprised by the lack of TS Watches for SE FL and the Keys. Hopefully guidance doesn't shift further west...

[sunnyday]

No tropical storm watches or warnings in so fl. Sorry for the above auto correct error.

[RL3AO]

The west side of these types of systems are usually much weaker than you'd expect. Even if it made landfall in SE FL as a tropical storm, I wouldn't be surprised if there were no measured TS winds in FL.

[psyclone]

The west side of these types of systems are usually much weaker than you'd expect. Even if it made landfall in SE FL as a tropical storm, I wouldn't be surprised if there were no measured TS winds in FL.

Agree. this won't be a wind hazard outside of the marine areas. good thing we have fronts coming down. too little too late on this one in terms of a coherent TC threat for the CONUS.

[psyclone]

i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...

Completely agree. I was against the concept from go. You can tell it was developed by met egg heads (with the best of intentions) but it adds to confusion with the general public. What was wrong with the old...TS warnings may be required at any time if the system forms?...with a mention of TS conditions possible regardless of development. that provided ample clarity. I remember a PTC bust off the southeast coast earlier this season and over time this will likely add to confusion and complacency.

[Alyono]

i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...

Completely agree. I was against the concept from go. You can tell it was developed by met egg heads (with the best of intentions) but it adds to confusion with the general public. What was wrong with the old...TS warnings may be required at any time if the system forms?...with a mention of TS conditions possible regardless of development. that provided ample clarity. I remember a PTC bust off the southeast coast earlier this season and over time this will likely add to confusion and complacency.

I can tell you that you are dead flat wrong here. There is no reason why advisories cannot be issued pre genesis not watches and warnings. You have no idea as to what goes into preparations. You cannot wait until it is a TC to prepare

[AdamFirst]

Regardless of impact, expect a rainy afternoon across South Florida all day Saturday and into Sunday morning. Tropical Storm conditions more likely over the coastal waters.

[psyclone]

i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...

Completely agree. I was against the concept from go. You can tell it was developed by met egg heads (with the best of intentions) but it adds to confusion with the general public. What was wrong with the old...TS warnings may be required at any time if the system forms?...with a mention of TS conditions possible regardless of development. that provided ample clarity. I remember a PTC bust off the southeast coast earlier this season and over time this will likely add to confusion and complacency.

I can tell you that you are dead flat wrong here. There is no reason why advisories cannot be issued pre genesis not watches and warnings. You have no idea as to what goes into preparations. You cannot wait until it is a TC to prepare

Well you won. I just think it's more trouble than it's worth but we'll see. I acknowledge I could be wrong.

[CrazyC83]

i am not a fan of these PTC. Either it is. Or it isn't. The public has no clue on what it means. It is only surpassed by slight, marginal, moderate, high risk. ....NWS just doesn't have a handle on how important it is to classify a threat risk in a way the public can easily understand...

Completely agree. I was against the concept from go. You can tell it was developed by met egg heads (with the best of intentions) but it adds to confusion with the general public. What was wrong with the old...TS warnings may be required at any time if the system forms?...with a mention of TS conditions possible regardless of development. that provided ample clarity. I remember a PTC bust off the southeast coast earlier this season and over time this will likely add to confusion and complacency.

I can tell you that you are dead flat wrong here. There is no reason why advisories cannot be issued pre genesis not watches and warnings. You have no idea as to what goes into preparations. You cannot wait until it is a TC to prepare

Maria was probably the best example in Dominica. At the moment PTC 15 was declared it was clear that it would become a strong hurricane before landfall. While no model brought it to cat 5 that soon, they did have at least 12 extra hours to prepare under a Hurricane Watch for an intense hit.

[psyclone]

Completely agree. I was against the concept from go. You can tell it was developed by met egg heads (with the best of intentions) but it adds to confusion with the general public. What was wrong with the old...TS warnings may be required at any time if the system forms?...with a mention of TS conditions possible regardless of development. that provided ample clarity. I remember a PTC bust off the southeast coast earlier this season and over time this will likely add to confusion and complacency.

I can tell you that you are dead flat wrong here. There is no reason why advisories cannot be issued pre genesis not watches and warnings. You have no idea as to what goes into preparations. You cannot wait until it is a TC to prepare

Maria was probably the best example in Dominica. At the moment PTC 15 was declared it was clear that it would become a strong hurricane before landfall. While no model brought it to cat 5 that soon, they did have at least 12 extra hours to prepare under a Hurricane Watch for an intense hit.

Except that the initial watches were TS watches, not hurricane watches. Nevertheless this is a good example in favor of the PTC designation.

[ronjon]

All this PTC discussion will likely be moot tomorrow when it becomes a real tropical storm. It has about a 24 hour window to strengthen before heavily sheared.

[WeatherEmperor]

All of this talk about PTC's has a lot of potential. See what I did there? Let's talk about it in a thread I created in the Talkin' Tropics section

Link --> viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119356

[gatorcane]

Seems the latest GFS and ensemble mean move this faster and as a result have shifted west.

[fci]

I can tell you that you are dead flat wrong here. There is no reason why advisories cannot be issued pre genesis not watches and warnings. You have no idea as to what goes into preparations. You cannot wait until it is a TC to prepare

Maria was probably the best example in Dominica. At the moment PTC 15 was declared it was clear that it would become a strong hurricane before landfall. While no model brought it to cat 5 that soon, they did have at least 12 extra hours to prepare under a Hurricane Watch for an intense hit.

Except that the initial watches were TS watches, not hurricane watches. Nevertheless this is a good example in favor of the PTC designation.

Personally I like the designation but if the big deal is that no watches or warnings could be issued without a designation; they could simply change that rule.
Put up a watch or warning even if there is no designation and an area is either an "Invest" or "Area of disturbed weather" or "Tropical Wave".

[marco_islander]

I am super new to this so I apologize for lack of proper terminology and ignorance when it comes to reading the models but I'm looking at the GFS model at the 30 hour mark and I'm wondering what that second red circle is northwest of PTC 18 is. It almost looks like a second eye. Is it just a heavy dose of rain coming off the edge of PTC 18 due to its disorganization or something else to be keeping an eye on? Thanks.

[gatorcane]

Anticyclone has built overtop: