ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

looks like the HH has found another wind shift with a 1002 mb center north of the one on the last pass. Reforming?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I don't see it, but maybe this is what Aric was talking about. He seems to believe that a first landfall in Louisiana is possible, missing Texas altogether (outside of bands).

The center never shifted north it'd a illusion this is heading for Texas

I am looking at it on recon. It has definitely moved further north under the convection.

That's NW it's a average movement not one pass

[BRweather]

looks like the HH has found another wind shift with a 1002 mb center north of the one on the last pass. Reforming?

I do not believe so. It just looks to be getting sucked in under the convection.

[Blinhart]

looks like the HH has found another wind shift with a 1002 mb center north of the one on the last pass. Reforming?

Hey gater you should know this by now (LMAO) when a storm is just developing the center has been known to jump around until it can find a stable situation.

[Blinhart]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 240403
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

At that speed it would take almost 2 weeks to get to the coastline, so it definitely needs to speed up.

And it has basically gone due north.
Coordinates from this morning
INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

Coordinates as of 10pm tonight
INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

So basically it has moved .5N and .1W all day or about 45 miles NNW

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 240403
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

At that speed it would take almost 2 weeks to get to the coastline, so it definitely needs to speed up.

And it has basically gone due north.
Coordinates from this morning
INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

Coordinates as of 10pm tonight
INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

So basically it has moved .5N and .1W all day or about 45 miles NNW

Exactly

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone! long time no talk..lol Just as we go through will all weak/strengthening tropical cyclones its going to find the deepest convection and migrate toward it. I don't know if its moving north, I doubt it, but its def. re-adjusting Northward right now into that super cold/deep storm burst.

[Jagno]

Personally, I was just fine with it going to Kennedy County where livestock could be trailered to safety to wait out the storm and flooding. No adjustments please.

[1900hurricane]

I still like the developing outflow pattern, but man, single convective burst tropical cyclones like this look barftastic.

[deltadog03]

Thank you for the person who shared this link before. Its really cool!!
http://col.st/FXhXj

[txwatcher91]

This is blowing up and building a solid core. Tomorrow will get ugly as this really picks up steam.

[TheEuropean]

Here is another link to the cloud tops:

https://weather.us/satellite/921-w-267- ... .html#play

you can zoom further in and start the loop again with the play-button.

[msp]

looks like mission 10 is heading back in now. should get a good idea on its motion/relocation

[Blinhart]

Thank you for the person who shared this link before. Its really cool!!
http://col.st/FXhXj

If that eddie I see in the middle of the frame is the center then it moved almost due NE, but most likely it was just a eddie going around the CoC.

[deltadog03]

Here is another link to the cloud tops:

https://weather.us/satellite/921-w-267- ... .html#play

you can zoom further in and start the loop again with the play-button.

Nice!!

[Blinhart]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240541
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND HARVEY A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...740 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area
this morning. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey
was located by NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes near
latitude 22.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Harvey is now moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A track toward the
northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected
for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be
approaching the Texas coast on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45
mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a
a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hurricane Hunter planes was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with
heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches
along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Blinhart]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240541
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND HARVEY A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...740 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area
this morning. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey
was located by NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes near
latitude 22.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Harvey is now moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A track toward the
northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected
for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be
approaching the Texas coast on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45
mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a
a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hurricane Hunter planes was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with
heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches
along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

So basically in 18 hours it has gone 1.1 degrees N and .1 degrees W, I would have to say that is almost due N, and at a very slow pace.

[Andrew92]

I haven't been posting much, and usually don't during the time of a threat like this, but I have a nagging thought/question. With forecasts calling for this stall slightly inland, and Harvey appearing, at least for now, to be going somewhat east of forecast, I have to ask this. What are the chances it does this stall, like, right at the coast?

I don't know, it could easily go inland, but for some reason with these trends, I am sensing Harvey doesn't go as far inland as some have forecast. That's if it even goes inland at all, prior to the stall, as I could see it just meandering slightly offshore too. Texans, please get ready for this one.

-Andrew92

[msp]

appears the relocation northward continues

[Sciencerocks]

appears the relocation northward continues

Almost outside of the margin of error for the nhc track!