ATL: HARVEY - Models

[hd44]

If the models pan out, this is a classic example on why we shouldn't put too much weight on a hurricane's category to determine potential damage. It doesn't look like Harvey will reach major hurricane status at the moment, but I'm pretty its aftermath in 3 states added up will equate to one. So be prepared.

Gfs is close to 30 inches in Houston, that is epic rainfall which could be billions and billions of dollars worth. Fyi Kansas City flooded last night with 10 inches of rain... times it by 2 or 3.

[ROCK]

didn't see the 18Z NAM on here...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

[Frank P]

Racer storm I saw someone post...raked almost the entire Gulf Coast...wow

but lets keep it in perspective....it is the GFS of 2017....lets some more globals follow..soon this will be now casting as its so close...many wobbles to watch.

But the perspective is that its relatively in line with the 2017 mighty Euro, and pretty much the same with the last run of the CMC... now if it was just one model yeah OK.. but 3 is pretty crazy...

[ROCK]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[Frank P]

didn't see the 18Z NAM on here...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

Gotta be the eastern outlier... but interesting no less

[ROCK]

Racer storm I saw someone post...raked almost the entire Gulf Coast...wow

but lets keep it in perspective....it is the GFS of 2017....lets some more globals follow..soon this will be now casting as its so close...many wobbles to watch.

But the perspective is that its relatively in line with the 2017 mighty Euro, and pretty much the same with the last run of the CMC... now if it was just one model yeah OK.. but 3 is pretty crazy...

I agree Frank...just like to throw that in there since we don't have a legit center yet. only best track currently...

[stormreader]

Racer storm I saw someone post...raked almost the entire Gulf Coast...wow

I posted about it. But that storm barely indented the coast (but it did make a landfall) near Brownsville. What this is being forecasted to do, would I think, be even more unlikely. We have to take it seriously, but as someone said, a whole lot can change. The idea that it would penetrate well inland, then days later reenter the GOM and rather quickly regenerate into a Cat 2, would be remarkable. Until I see otherwise, I just think the UKMET solution is more realistic (further east slow moving system staying just off coast until a landfall in upper Texas coast).

[hd44]

Gefs has near 10 inches for Houston. This is not a meso model either , scary :O.

[msp]

18z HWRF out to 30hr, shows harvey taking his time (?making a loop) as he tries to form a clearer center west of the NW tip of the yucatan

[stormreader]

18z HWRF out to 30hr, shows harvey taking his time (?making a loop) as he tries to form a clearer center west of the NW tip of the yucatan

Forward speed will be important. Glad you brought that up. I'm guessing a slower approach to the coast would result in the storm not making it quite as far west, with less chance for a deep penetration of the coast. Perhaps than more of a coastal waters storm with more of a north move up the Texas coast. Going to follow forward speed and perhaps changing model output during the next 48 hours or so.

[msp]

18z HWRF out to 30hr, shows harvey taking his time (?making a loop) as he tries to form a clearer center west of the NW tip of the yucatan

Forward speed will be important. Glad you brought that up. I'm guessing a slower approach to the coast would result in the storm not making it quite as far west, with less chance for a deep penetration of the coast. Perhaps than more of a coastal waters storm with more of a north move up the Texas coast. Going to follow forward speed and perhaps changing model output during the next 48 hours or so.

18z HWRF almost exactly 6hrs slower than 12z (approx same position at 42hr on both runs)

[stormreader]

didn't see the 18Z NAM on here...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

Gotta be the eastern outlier... but interesting no less

That NAM is very close to my thinking (maybe I should be embarrassed to say that....) Steve says the NAM is not worth much for a storm below 25N. Still below 25 N but not much now. Moving out of deep tropics shortly and into subtropics, and, more importantly, continental weather, with its diving troughs and shifting ridges. Also, the NAM a couple of days ago was the only model that had the storm pretty much in its current position coming off the northern coast of the Yucatan. When others had this bound for Tampico, NAM had storm move NW over the penninsula and come off as now off the NW corner. If not exact it was pretty close. It did not have this as a BOC storm, and its not.

[South Texas Storms]

18z HMON has it coming inland just south of Corpus.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF looks S through 48 hrs

[msp]

18z HMON has it coming inland just south of Corpus.

yeah, comes ashore in unpopulated kenedy county at 976mb

big shift from 12z which landfalled in mexico

[South Texas Storms]

18z HMON has it coming inland just south of Corpus.

yeah, comes ashore in unpopulated kenedy county at 976mb

big shift from 12z which landfalled in mexico

But it's pretty similar to the 6z run.

[msp]

18z HMON has it coming inland just south of Corpus.

yeah, comes ashore in unpopulated kenedy county at 976mb

big shift from 12z which landfalled in mexico

But it's pretty similar to the 6z run.

yep it looks like the 12z run was aberrant.

hwrf shifting south some thru 63hr

[Alyono]

the p/w relationship on these runs appears off. Not sure this is going to have sub hurricane force winds with such a low pressure. The initial vortex is too broad, giving rise to a monsoon trough p/w

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

navy

[msp]

18z HWRF hits baffin bay south of corpus at 971mb