ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[forecasterjack]

This to.me has the appearance of a sub-tropical storm. It is coming together quite well early this afternoon off the GA coast.

Sure is looking good. Perhaps it has a short window of opportunity to develop into a TS or STS before going full frontal

[Sanibel]

Wetlands flooded here and still raining...


Looks like 92 is finally establishing a center off Georgia...

[NDG]

Getting organized but still under heavy shear from Harvey's outflow.

[TheStormExpert]

100-200 miles could make a HUGE difference between a decently named TC over the Gulf stream or nothing much over land.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/901860510022463489




The Euro hinted at this for one run 12z Wednesday August 23rd.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 70%/70%

An elongated area of low pressure, previously located over northeast
Florida, has emerged over the western Atlantic and is now located
about 60 miles east of the coast of Georgia. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system have increased in
coverage and are gradually becoming better organized. The low
is likely to become a tropical depression or storm during the next
day or so before it merges with a cold front. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough
surf along the coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia
through mid-week. A tropical storm watch may be required for a
portion of the coast of North and South Carolina this afternoon.
Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next 24 hours. Please refer to products from
your local National Weather Service forecast office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Snippet from the 2pm TWO on 92L.

An elongated area of low pressure, previously located over northeast
Florida, has emerged over the western Atlantic and is now located
about 60 miles east of the coast of Georgia. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system have increased in
coverage and are gradually becoming better organized. The low
is likely to become a tropical depression or storm during the next
day or so before it merges with a cold front. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough
surf along the coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia
through mid-week. A tropical storm watch may be required for a
portion of the coast of North and South Carolina this afternoon.

[smithtim]

Low starting to wrap up now off the GA coast. Winds here constantly in the 25kt range (mostly from gradient). Not sure if it will get a name or to status, looks like a hybrid. That's a shame because no one takes a storm without a name seriously....

That's very true and if it does continue hopefully the mets on local TV their will bring some attention to it! I do see this storm having some potential effects on Coastal Georgia - Carolina. While it is not in a perfect environment the one thing to note is the water temperatures are very very warm https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/satl.html For example off Charleston & Savannah are almost 85 degrees and that's only a few degrees cooler than the water we just saw fuel Harvey! Please note in no way am I saying I see it bombing out like that, but I would not be surprised to see a quick forming TS or STS? Hopefully will just turn away NE on out to sea; maybe send some nice swell for the surfahs then zoom on out without causing any harm to lives / property... those are my prayers!

[northjaxpro]

This system will get really close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and eventually farther up the Mid-Atlantic coast later this week. Interests living up in that area I would be paying close attention to what's happening with this storm as the day progresses and through the immediate short term.

[seahawkjd]

From what I can tell its getting little to no press locally. So we may be looking at watches at 5pm. It seems like we always start the school year with a watch or warning and sometimes end it the same way.

[pgoss11]

From what I can tell its getting little to no press locally. So we may be looking at watches at 5pm. It seems like we always start the school year with a watch or warning and sometimes end it the same way.

Very little press about it here in Charleston SC. Winds have been increasing and I'm sure the waters will getting increasingly rough.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks to have developed convection over the LLC and is borderline tropical storm.

I'll guess that this will be upgraded by 11pm.

[northjaxpro]

This invest has been around for 3 weeks!

92L has merged finally with that frontal boundary, but it is over the Gulf Stream now and I think it is classifiable now as a STS. It is developing nicely this afternoon. It will be a close call to see if it becomes fully tropical on characteristics. It has a very brief window for it becomefully tropical, probably about only the next 12-24 hours or so.

[weathaguyry]

I'm keeping an extremely close eye on this here on Long island, one thing that is for sure is that the track will be closer than Gert's ever was!

[Fishing]

From what I can tell its getting little to no press locally. So we may be looking at watches at 5pm. It seems like we always start the school year with a watch or warning and sometimes end it the same way.

Very little press about it here in Charleston SC. Winds have been increasing and I'm sure the waters will getting increasingly rough.

Yes I am in Mount Pleasant and we have had some pretty big wind gusts. I'd imagine little to no press mostly because Harvey is so so devastating, and literally beyond words. I am praying them.

[seahawkjd]

Yeah everyone is understandably focused on Texas and Louisiana. We're going to get some rain and a little wind over the next couple of days.

[joey]

92L just might make it today but will it also pull the convection frow sw fl forming across the pinisnular with it

[BobHarlem]

Recon going to head out for 92l

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT SUN 27 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 28/1730Z A. 29/1130Z,1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 28/1530Z C. 29/0900Z
D. 31.7N 80.2W D. 34.0N 77.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2230Z E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS:
A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/1800Z CANCELLED
BY NHC 27/1245Z.
B. MISSION ORIGINALLY TASKED FOR THE 28/1130Z,1730Z
FIXES WILL SLIP SIX HOURS AND BECOME FLIGHT ONE
ABOVE.

[seahawkjd]

Looks like the clouds are building in over the center, or is that the low moving west?

https://weather.us/satellite/800-w-320-n/satellite-infrared-superhd-5min.html#play

[weathaguyry]

One concern may actually be that if this becomes subtropical, the winds and rain may spread farther away from the center, and affect more people along the coast

[seahawkjd]

Recon going to head out for 92l

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT SUN 27 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 28/1730Z A. 29/1130Z,1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 28/1530Z C. 29/0900Z
D. 31.7N 80.2W D. 34.0N 77.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2230Z E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS:
A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/1800Z CANCELLED
BY NHC 27/1245Z.
B. MISSION ORIGINALLY TASKED FOR THE 28/1130Z,1730Z
FIXES WILL SLIP SIX HOURS AND BECOME FLIGHT ONE
ABOVE.

When is that going out? Tomorrow morning?