ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Looks like the clouds are building in over the center, or is that the low moving west?

https://weather.us/satellite/800-w-320-n/satellite-infrared-superhd-5min.html#play

The low has been slowly westward.

[NDG]

Pretty good pressure drop at this buoy off the coast of GA, 5 mb compared to 24 hrs ago. It qualifies as at least as a TD, pressure gradient between it and a 1027 mb high pressure over NE US.

Code: Select all

Wind Direction (WDIR):   NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust   Wind Gust (GST):   35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height   Wave Height (WVHT):   8.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period   Dominant Wave Period (DPD):   7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period   Average Period (APD):   5.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction   Mean Wave Direction (MWD):   ENE ( 76 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure   Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.83 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency   Pressure Tendency (PTDY):   -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature   Air Temperature (ATMP):   81.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   84.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point   Dew Point (DEWP):   74.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index   Heat Index (HEAT):   87.3 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):   29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):   31.1 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41008

[seahawkjd]

Is the pressure gradient helping it develop faster?

[Fishing]

Recon going to head out for 92l

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT SUN 27 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 28/1730Z A. 29/1130Z,1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 28/1530Z C. 29/0900Z
D. 31.7N 80.2W D. 34.0N 77.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2230Z E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS:
A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/1800Z CANCELLED
BY NHC 27/1245Z.
B. MISSION ORIGINALLY TASKED FOR THE 28/1130Z,1730Z
FIXES WILL SLIP SIX HOURS AND BECOME FLIGHT ONE
ABOVE.

When is that going out? Tomorrow morning?

I could be way off but think that's about 1230pm tomm.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at visible satellite imagery 92L basically has not moved in the last two to three hours. It has basically been sitting on 80° longitude during that time also convection is beginning or trying the wrap around the circulation center and it is gradually intensifying might have a chance to become tropical if it is sitting over that Gulf Stream or doesn't move much the next 12 to 24 hours. That's is the window it has to transition imo to become fully tropical but it has a chance if it's nearly stationary or drifting as it's doing right now.

[OuterBanker]

Recon going to head out for 92l

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT SUN 27 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 28/1730Z A. 29/1130Z,1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 28/1530Z C. 29/0900Z
D. 31.7N 80.2W D. 34.0N 77.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2230Z E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS:
A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/1800Z CANCELLED
BY NHC 27/1245Z.
B. MISSION ORIGINALLY TASKED FOR THE 28/1130Z,1730Z
FIXES WILL SLIP SIX HOURS AND BECOME FLIGHT ONE
ABOVE.

When is that going out? Tomorrow morning?

I could be way off but think that's about 1230pm tomm.

17:30 today or 1:30 EDT they are flying now.

Also 1:30 tomorrow.

[weathaguyry]

From the NWS Charleston, SC
Rip Currents: The combination of northeast winds and long period
swell associated with low pressure passing near the coast could
produce an elevated risk of rip currents through Monday.

High Surf: As low pressure tracks along the Southeast coast Monday,
seas could build up to 8 ft or greater in the near shore coastal
waters. High Surf Advisories could be needed.

From the NWS Wilmington, NC
Heavy rainfall possible Monday and Tuesday across portions of the
area.

From the NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
Low pressure is forecast to develop of the southeast coast tonight,
then move just off the North Carolina coast early next week.
Tropical development is possible with this system, and it could
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain along the coast.

From the NWS Wakefield, VA
Minor to moderate tidal flooding is possible along the James...York
and Rappahannock Rivers and the near the Chesapeake Bay Monday
afternoon into Tuesday.

Low pressure is forecast to develop off the southeast coast tonight,
then track northeast along the Carolina coast Monday night into
Tuesday before heading out to sea late Tuesday. The combination of
the low and high pressure to the northeast will produce gusty
northeast winds between 25 to 40 mph. This will result in rough wave
action both on the Chesapeake Bay and Currituck Sound. Minor to
moderate coastal flooding will also be possible Monday afternoon
into
Tuesday. In addition...bands of showers will produce moderate to
locally heavy rainfall Monday night and Tuesday morning.

A persistent northeast wind between 20 to 30 mph will result in
dangerous surf conditions and an elevated risk of rip currents
Monday through Tuesday.

From the NWS Mount Holly, NJ
There is a chance of minor coastal flooding with Tuesday afternoon`s
high tide cycle. The risk of flooding will depend on the track and
strengthen of a low pressure system to our south.

The other NWS offices north of there are not yet mentioning the potential effects of 92L to the areas, but that will likely come out in the near future, as 92L will get pretty close to Long Island and Cape Cod

[MGC]

Looks like something is cooking......MGC

[weathaguyry]

When is that going out? Tomorrow morning?

I could be way off but think that's about 1230pm tomm.

17:30 today or 1:30 EDT they are flying now.

Also 1:30 tomorrow.

They aren't out right now, but the first mission will be 1:30 tomorrow I believe, this may become PTC 10 in the near future, since they mentioned in the 2PM TWO that watches may be needed this afternoon

[northjaxpro]

Also, winds have picked up here at my weather station here at home. Recorded a Northeast wind gust to 33 mph in the last 10 minutes

92L is just to my northeast by about 100 miles or so at this time of posting. The gradient definitely tightening between 92L and the High Pressure axis off to its north.

[OuterBanker]

Recon going to head out for 92l

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT SUN 27 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 28/1730Z A. 29/1130Z,1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 28/1530Z C. 29/0900Z
D. 31.7N 80.2W D. 34.0N 77.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2230Z E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS:
A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/1800Z CANCELLED
BY NHC 27/1245Z.
B. MISSION ORIGINALLY TASKED FOR THE 28/1130Z,1730Z
FIXES WILL SLIP SIX HOURS AND BECOME FLIGHT ONE
ABOVE.

When is that going out? Tomorrow morning?

And if you decipher further they expect it to be at 31.7 N 80.2 W today and 34.0 N 77.0 W (near Wilmington,NC) tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

Another very critical element that I'm noticing on visible satellite water vapor imagery on the floater is that blob of energy that has been sitting down off the Southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula the past couple of days. It appears to me as 92L is starting to pull in that moisture and energy into the circulation envelope. Now, if that is happening , 92L may be will not only become tropical fully in nature eventually, but just may become a very formidable cyclone off the Southeast U.S. I saw the NAM model runs from early yesterday showing explosive cyclogenesis of this system. I normally don't trust the NAM model in terms of tropical synoptics, but could the NAM possibly may have gotten this right? That would be really some tip of the hat to that model if it indeed pans out this way!

[seahawkjd]

So what do you think Eastern NC is going to get from this if the NAM pans out?

[RL3AO]

"NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, located off the southeast U.S. coast."

[joey]

"NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, located off the southeast U.S. coast."

looks like some banding forming over over fl south of palm beach will they extend the flood watch witch expires at 8 pm tonight ?

[northjaxpro]

So what do you think Eastern NC is going to get from this if the NAM pans out?

Well, if that model verifies, you would get very significant beach erosion and surf along the coast. Depending on the evolution of the track, wind and rain impacts may become an issue IF and a emphasis on IF, 92L remains closer to the coast . NAM runs from early yesterday morning showed 92L hugging the coast up to the Outer Banks during the next 36-48 hours.

Keep up to date with the latest developments for sure. Hopefully the NAM won't pan out this way, but the current trends are quite interesting to say the least. However, we must stay prepared just in case, as the current disaster with Harvey is unfortunately painfully reminding us to do.

[weathaguyry]

Watches will also be posted with the PTC update.

[artist]

Special Message from NHC Issued 27 Aug 2017 20:30 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, located off the southeast U.S. coast.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't see the need to continue the Flood Watch (at least for NE PBC) as it is moving south and east.

[emeraldislenc]

Will be interesting to see the 5 pm advisory