ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[forecasterjack]

East coast of FL's waters will not be this calm as this morning next weekend, Irma will be generating some big swells which will be arriving well ahead of it getting to the area of the Bahamas.

Agree 100%. Very large swells are the only impact currently locked in for a guarantee on the East Coast. ECMWF wave model: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 0600z.html

[msbee]

Good morning Ms Bee!!

I am sure you are up to date with the latest on Irma and doing your preparations.

It is looking quite concerning for me that the models do indeed want to bring Irma uncomfortably close to you all down in the islands. I am hoping for the best for all you down there, along with Gusty wind and Cycloneye. Thanks for checking in and keeping us informed Ms Bee!! Take care!

good morning. Thanks for your post and for thinking of us. Yes, I am following it all VERY closely.

[msbee]

Regardless of whether you are in the exact landfall area, this storm will have long distance effects if it continues to grow in size as forecasted. Now is the time everyone should have all their family plans in place including what to do with your pets. From tropical storm force conditions to major hurricane conditions and tornadoes, millions will be affected in some way from Irma. Even inland areas will be affected with some of these conditions. My first thought are for those in the islands. Praying for you all to be safe.

Thank you. My pets will be right by my side

[msbee]

Irma remains a small storm today. Hurricane-force winds only extend out 10-15 miles to the south of the center. Without land interaction, it's hard for a hurricane to grow in size significantly very quickly. By the time the center passes the NE Caribbean, the hurricane-force winds may extend out 20-25 miles south of the center - still relatively small. Tropical storm-force winds may extend out 100 miles or so to the south of the storm as it passes the islands, which is far enough to reach them. Our forecast has 39mph winds reaching San Juan around 8pm Wednesday, but just barely grazing northern PR. The northern Leeward Islands west to the BVI are grazed by the 58mph winds earlier on Wednesday. Of course, any slight deviation south would put the hurricane-force winds into those islands. Note that the strongest winds will be on the north side of the storm.

Looking at the overnight ensembles, it's not looking good for the East U.S. Coast on September 11th. Prime target appears to be the Carolinas north to NY. Florida isn't out of the picture, of course, but chances of an impact there are lower than farther north.

Thank you wxman57 very helpful information.

[robbielyn]

i think minus the usual windshield wiping we have seen early on, there has been a "meeting of the minds " sooner than later as to a mid atlantic landfall (despite the track moving south and west), because the models had a strong coc to work with from the get go as this storm rapidly became a hurricane. this along with a not so complex weather pattern as with some other storms like hermine. it's basically: it will make landfall here or there based on this or that(trough vs ridge/speed of storm.
I really think it's going to be a n/c landfall because the dart keeps hitting that bullseye no matter what angle the storm seems to be coming from, more northerly or southerly, it still pulls it north to the Carolinas, both models along with others keep saying NC.
I know supposedly it's too far out to say for certainty but hermine way in the beginning pointed to a big bend hit, so it's entirely possible that we already have an answer. now if a storm develops in the BOC, that could change things down the road and any other monkey wrenches models haven't yet foreseen. just my thoughts.

[painkillerr]

I am not liking at all the southern trend of the guidance and the system.Puerto Rico surely will get impacts from Irma in the form of Tropical Storm force winds along with copius rains that can cause massive flooding.That is assuming the 5 AM forecast track verifies.Any adjustment more south will mean much more impacts with Hurricane force winds reaching the island.People here since Saturday have been jamming the supermarkets,Depot stores etc getting all they need if the worst case scenario comes.But I can tell you that the power grids here are not very good so we can expect blackouts that may last days depending how severe it turns out.Let's see how all unfolds in the next couple of days to really know what Puerto Rico will face.

I hope all the friends in the Leewards,BVI and U.S Virgin Islands are preparing and hoping for the best.

I m not liking this either, Luis. Hoping we will all be safe

Guys I think we need to buckle up!

[thundercam96]

Just got stationed in the UK earlier this summer. I was hoping something like this wouldn't play out while I was a way for the next year or so. I call Central Florida home, and it would kill me to see this storm hit anywhere back in the state. I couldn't imagine having to take emergency leave to come home and clean up, it would be a long, worrisome journey back to the sunshine state. A a guy from my unit (who was from Port Aransas) made the journey back to help his family clean up.

[EyELeSs1]

Hi All, I'm back in Antigua for this one. Just wanted to say hi to everyone in the islands. Be safe out there!

[AdamFirst]

Will the G-IV mission have data in time for tonight's 0z model suites?

[seaswing]

[/quote]I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.[/quote]
Haha! Well, I usually just lurk but I had to add this off topic comment. During Frances, I had just gotten my new Golden Retriever puppy. He was only 8 weeks old and like you, I took him out to potty during the times in between the squalls. Problem was sometimes the wind would pick up before he was done. My windows were all boarded up so it was black inside. You could not see the poop bombs he would leave. Yuck! You knew it when you stepped in it!! No water to clean up until you went outside and washed it off in the rain. I also have to add that I still have that puppy, except he is 13 yrs. old!! Seems hard yo believe it's been 13 yrs since Florida was hammered one right after another, 2004.

[MetroMike]

I believe Irma is fending off any dry air intrusion in the core well.There were some indication earlier on this morning that it would be entrained
into the inner circulation.

[1900hurricane]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
450 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

<snip>

Edited slightly, it begins... Good info...

Listen to that guy at your own risk - I heard that he drinks on the midnight shift. LOL

It's weird to hear you talk about yourself in the third person. Maybe that's the drinks talking?

[tropicwatch]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IRMA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 48.4W
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Irma. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required
for portions of these islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 48.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this course at a
slightly slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[1900hurricane]

Here's a wide-view visible shot for perspective:



It's an ominous sight right now, with Irma the only game in town at the moment.

I know I've mentioned this somewhere else, but the setup actually reminds me one one that is commonly seen in WPac El Nino years, where the storm develops to the east where the strongest upward motion is, establishes itself, and then moves west into relatively cloud-free areas.

[Blinhart]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IRMA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 48.4W
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Irma. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required
for portions of these islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 48.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this course at a
slightly slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

As I expected they are suspecting this storm to slow down, it already has slowed some already from 15 MPH to 14 MPH. I know that isn't much but every few miles slower it moves the more difference in placement.

[ronjon]

Here's NHCs thinking on where it goes the next 5 days and when watches will be posted.

KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves near or
over the northeastern Leeward Islands by the middle of this week,
and could cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts,
along with rough surf and rip currents on some islands. Hurricane
and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for some of these
islands later today or tonight. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by
officials.

2. Direct impacts from Irma are also possible in the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico later this week, and tropical storm or hurricane
watches could be issued for these islands by tomorrow. Residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice
given by officials.

3. The possibility of direct impacts from Irma in Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas later this week is increasing.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the dry air wrap has advanced even further into the circulation than it was yesterday. The encircling air has PWs well below 2".

[Jelff]

Below is a link for a Google + GIS hurricane map that I produced as a public service. The data showing Irma’s observed and forecast track comes from the GIS (Geographical Information System) server operated by NOAA’s nowCOAST team. The primary index page for that server is at https://nowcoast.noaa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/nowcoast.

Do not rely on any map to ignore an order to evacuate. If you are told to leave then just GO!

The map can display 20+ different data overlay layers from GIS servers operated by government agencies. The map **does not** display data from a static file that never changes. Instead, each time you open the map or turn on a overlay layer the **most recent data** hosted on the GIS server(s) appears on your screen.

When the map opens the “Bouy” layer is ‘on top’ and therefore clickable. If you click a bouy then you will see a display with all the attribute data the GIS server has for the thing that you clicked. Scroll down the attribute list and click the link. That will take you to the bouy’s web page. That page should display any recent data collected by the bouy.

Also when the map opens the basemap is a satellite black and white image collected during the current day. Each day this image is built once from east to west. If any of the basemap is black it just means that data has not yet shown up on NASA’s GIS server. Try opening the map later during the same day. This basemap is updated on the GIS server about every 30 minutes.

You also might be interested in the basemap called “Today_satellite_color”. This color image is from the MODIS satellite and is only built once per day. This image is also built from east to west during the day so if any of the image is black you can drag the map toward Europe and Africa and you should see how much of the image has been built so far for the current day.

Other useful GIS data overlay layers include gage stations on the coast (Tide_wind_and_more) that record water height and wind, NOAA’s new colorful storm surge forecast, stream gages and rain gages. If the ‘top’ layer you have turned on displays gages, then you can click on a gage and then click the link in the popup and that will open the official web page for that gage.

The "Map Tips" link in the upper left corner will show you how to turn the other GIS data overlay layers on/off, how to make your own custom map link and more tips for getting the most benefit from the map.

Hurricane map: https://bit.ly/2ezRkC1

[mike2kt]

Looks like the dry air wrap has advanced even further into the circulation than it was yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/4zZ7ruJ.jpg?1

I'm a bit confused, how do you get that's dry air from a scale that shows temperature?

[eastcoastFL]

South Florida added to the TS wind probability list by nhc now at 120h
WPB
FTL
MIA
Homestead
All 3% chance at the moment

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1451.shtml?