ATL: TEN - Models

[Blown Away]

HWRF through 42 hours is up to it's usual tricks of starting to develop. Will be interesting to see how strong it gets on this run.

major status on hwrf always a at least a 50/50 prop...entertainment purposes only although it did very well with katrina moving through florida, it caught the dip,

It's been 12 years, so maybe it's time for HWRF to catch another...

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM has a triple threat at 144 hours

[Blown Away]

Also, Models suddenly backing off future Major Hurricane 93L idea... Crazy scenario being played out...

[jlauderdal]

NAVGEM has a triple threat at 144 hours

the classified version has so many the public isnt allowed to view it...

[slamdaddy]

As the Models turn

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro Initialized

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Brings 92L to Cat 1 in 48 hours, then from @50-70W it breaks 92L down to TD, and @24N/70W 92L begins to develop heading WNW and ends at 126 hrs @25N/74W as a 50 mph TS...

[Hurricaneman]

What the models are saying is this needs to be watched between 65and 70w for intensification

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF shows a stronger vorticity at 72 hours than the 00Z ECMWF run at this same timeframe. Is also north of the GFS and faster heading WNW to W:

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF shows a stronger vorticity at 72 hours than the 00Z ECMWF run at this same timeframe. Is also north of the GFS and faster heading WNW to W:

[img]https://s30.postimg.org/8y2s2dlmp/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_4.png

If it's going to fall apart the next frame should show it at hour 96.

[Blown Away]

Euro 12z at 72/96 hrs, the strongest vorticity it has shown since 92L formed...

[WeatherEmperor]

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[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF is well north of the GFS with this invest out through 96 hours. 500MB steering suggest Bahamas and maybe Florida after that. Question is as just a wave or something more this run.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM at 180 hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017081612&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

[WeatherEmperor]

Almost nothing left at 120hrs




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[SouthFLTropics]

Based on what we're seeing from the GFS and the Euro, the area just north of Hispaniola looks to be very hostile.

[SouthFLTropics]

Despite the hostile environment north of Hispaniola, this is the best the vorticity has looked on the Euro through 144 hours in quite a while. Furthermore it shows how strong the ridge is. Unless things change it looks like something is coming in the direction of the Bahamas and Florida. The only question is what...

Now we'll have to wait until 00z tonight to see if this uptick in organization is a trend or not.

[WeatherEmperor]

Weak vort approaching south florida at 144hrs. We must watch this just like 99L!




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[Blown Away]

Euro backed off future 93L big time...

[gatorcane]

Euro run not done yet. That vort crosses South Florida/Keys and emerges into the SE Gulf...