ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

18z HWRF has an impressive storm system making landfall near New Orleans.


18z HMON has makes landfall along the Florida Bend.

Thankfully it's not good on undeveloped systems in my opinion. If that track remains constant and other models follow, that would be very, very bad for the West Coast of Florida...

I have been keeping track of the 850 winds vs the 10m winds and the HWRF has done a very good job with intensity even from an undeveloped system. The only issues seem to be timing intialy until it is an established system.

[GCANE]

SCAT data a little over an hour ago

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still quite broad but making significant progress.

[GCANE]

AMSU is detecting a warm core

[Aric Dunn]

Looking well on it's way. once convection builds after this intitial process should have depression by morning.. though nhc will wait until recon.

[gatorcane]

Remarkably good consensus:

[caneman]

Remarkably good consensus:

Just 12 hours ago they were Pensacola to Bog Bend. So just because a consensus doesn't mean it will play out that way

[Aric Dunn]

It is quite possible this deepens much faster if it stays farther offshore.. cat2/3 before entering the gulf if it stays offshore. shear forecast through the NW is plenty low to support it and given the crazy heat content and moist air..

once in the gulf some dry air and shear will likely affect it.

[Blown Away]

Most of the 00z intensity guidance keep 90L as TS through 132 hrs... Thinking sheared TS is likely outcome...

[FLpanhandle91]

Most of the 00z intensity guidance keep 90L as TS through 132 hrs... Thinking sheared TS is likely outcome...

I think this largely depends on its interaction with Central America.

[chaser1]

Just an observation but its been a few hours since firing up any new convection over (or anywhere near) center.

Dmin?

No, we should clearly have started an upswing in convection but thats just not occurring. I'm a little bit at a loss. I'm just wondering if the overall gradient down there is so broad and spread out, that there's little to aid a convective uptick beyond low pressures throughout the area??

[gatorcane]

development will be a slow process due to how broad the low is. Also curious if models are too enthusiastic about moving this NW out of the SW Caribbean whereas it may lift out but more slowly than modeling shows.

[blp]

Euro ensembles still has a good spread once in the gulf. I think Tampa/Ft Myers to New Orleans is in play. Still looking at a 5-day forecast before it reaches gulf landfall so alot can change.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/915319264357371904

[robbielyn]

I've never heard the term "half cane". Could someone pls explain?

i’m guessing eastern lopsided storm get most of the weather instead of equal on both sides.

[Sanibel]

Diurnal pulse...We'll see what it looks like tomorrow...Ready to do the drill here if necessary...

[wxman57]

Initial track inland near Panama City, but might need to adjust west closer to Pensacola. Not buying the SE LA solution by the GFS. More likely track will be between there and the mid FL Panhandle. Lots of uncertainty as to the final landfall point AND intensity so far out. Bed time. 4am alarm for start of 12hr+ shifts tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

Initial track inland near Panama City, but might need to adjust west closer to Pensacola. Not buying the SE LA solution by the GFS. More likely track will be between there and the mid FL Panhandle. Lots of uncertainty as to the final landfall point AND intensity so far out. Bed time. 4am alarm for start of 12hr+ shifts tomorrow.

Thanks for the update...please keep us updated on the track if you can

[chaser1]

Yeah, might as well head on to bed. Right now its a bit like watching glue dry LOL.

[CrazyC83]

I think the farther east it is, the stronger it will be. A track to the east means less interaction with Central America and the Yucatan and likely sending it into the gap (and the water well offshore is a factory for extreme storms). A track to the west means significant land interaction, so it could enter the Gulf as a disrupted mess.

[CrazyC83]

If this can stay offshore and then shoot the Yucatan Channel, that would change things dramatically.

I do think a track into Louisiana would involve a weaker system, as it would have more land interaction, while a track towards the Florida Panhandle might go through the channel.