ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is moving NW to me. I don’t see a due north movement that the NHC shows in its track yet:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Frank2]

Anticyclone has built overtop:

But look at the shear over South Florida, forecast to increase ahead of the front.

[gatorcane]

Looks like maybe a new center has formed around 17N 86W?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Frank2]

Perhaps, but the NHC discussion does mention multiple centers in a larger circulation. Possibly like the one on the coast a few hours ago, it may dissipiate over night, the main circulation steering the entire system ahead of the front that is making rapid progress - the pre-frontal squall line might be nearing Naples by late tomorrow night.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

IMO the broad center is about 18N 83.5W (ignoring several swirls)...

[gatorcane]

Quite a pressure drop at this hour in the NW Caribbean. Down to 1007mb:

[floridasun78]

hi all you have feeling this could get too cat 1? you think gfs could be right pull 18 closer to south fl?

[blp]

hi all you have feeling this could get too cat 1? you think gfs could be right pull 18 closer to south fl?

It depends where this consolidates. A degree or two could bring it right over S.fla. I think there might be some underestimation on the strength. I think the trough will enhance the outflow. For me if it goes west of isle of pines cuba then keys S.fla needs to watch out because it will be too far west to miss.

[joey]

hi all you have feeling this could get too cat 1? you think gfs could be right pull 18 closer to south fl?

It depends where this consolidates. A degree or two could bring it right over S.fla. I think there might be some underestimation on the strength. I think the trough will enhance the outflow. For me if it goes west of isle of pines cuba then keys S.fla needs to watch out because it will be too far west to miss.

if thats the case then they just might go with watches at 11pm or 5 am to so fl just to be safe ?

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 84.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

No change in warnings.

[joey]

nhc cone shifts south

[Blown Away]

The COC area as of 11pm still looks NW and not N.

[floridasun78]

my weatherman from wfor say he see big shift models to south fl so let if same we see on sat on models runs if do we could see ts watch or warring for south fl and keys

[Alyono]

not convinced that the circulation is going to be better defined than it currently is. I'd say 50/50 this becomes a TC as per the NHC

[djones65]

As per NHC as of 06Z I would give it an 80/20 chance of being upgraded to tropical cyclone when next aircraft arrives around 1130 Z

[Alyono]

I would have named it at 21Z based upon the past recon data. I believe the center is defined enough now. Not sure how much better defined it will become

Regardless, I expect 40-50 kt winds to affect the NW Bahamas on Sunday

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

unorganised messy crap on sat.

[jlauderdal]

unorganised messy crap on sat.

06z gfs looks a little farther west, net effect remains the same, breezy and wet..the core actually might make landfall in monroe and dade, dual landfalls on the same day in florida just like irma

[MahFL]

PTC18 seems to be consolidating :

[Frank2]

The system is beginning to move (rocket) quickly and now appears to be centered near 20.5N 82.5W and moving more eastward than the 010 in the TCD, or 050. Apparently the false center seen near 17N 86W overnight has since dissipated.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ObsessedMiami]

Surprised SFL didn’t get TS warning at 5am. Then again my local forecast is up to 100% heavy rain for today and tonight and gusts to 38, sustained 28mph. Not quite there yet