ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

My God I'm just sick to my stomach, gutwrenched right now for everyone in the path of this monster. It s just unbelievable this monster!! What a nightmare of a 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season.

God be with the people of Puerto Rico!!!!

I remember going there after Georges. God this is so much worse, believe it or not it looks like a much larger disaster in the making.

[ronyan]

From my perspective as a non professional I was going to suggest the possibility that the unusual ERC may be the result of unusually low wind shear in combination with a very moist environment. Some commenters have remarked on the fact that these storms look similar to typhoons. It needs further study.

[1900hurricane]

Here comes all the CMG.

[dukeblue219]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

[tolakram]

This is sickening, I have a much more hopeless feeling than when it hits the US where people can get out of the way. This has been a horrible season.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like concentric feature is making a come back on radar. last two times this happened the pressure dropped.. lets hope not this time.,

[CrazyC83]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

If that is legit, the intensity could be 170 kt. Would be a basin record.

[supercane4867]

The eye warmed ~10C in a hour and -80C cloudtops popping up all over the CDO. She's literally skyrocketing.

[Aric Dunn]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

recon might go 165 with that..

[johngaltfla]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

No
Freaking
Way.

WOW!

[CrazyC83]

Here comes all the CMG.

Even seeing hints of CDG as well. That looks close to T7.5.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I feel very happy this isn't going to be hitting the US Mainland. I feel horrible about what will happen in the islands. Since this won't weaken until after the islands probably

Don't bet on that. Please. If it starts trekking NW/NNW, the East Coast MAY have to watch this.

Well I probably should have said "being that there's probably a 99% chance this won't affect the USA Mainland", that way I'm covered

[dukeblue219]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

If that is legit, the intensity could be 170 kt. Would be a basin record.

The average for the lowest 150m was 158 kt / 182mph. Sure they're instantaneous readings, but they were consistent on the way down. We might well see 180mph at least at 8pm.

[SunnyThoughts]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

I've run out of adjectives, and/or superlatives. That's close to 194 mph

[johngaltfla]

This is sickening, I have a much more hopeless feeling than when it hits the US where people can get out of the way. This has been a horrible season.

I fear what we will see tomorrow night in the USVI and Puerto Rico. I hope Cycloneye is safe.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Eyewall dropsonde is in, transmitted 2308Z, splashed in 168 KNOT surface wind gusts. Good lord.

I've run out of adjectives, and/or superlatives

How about expletives...

[1900hurricane]

Great question. I'm beginning to wonder if these really intense TCs have a unique version of ERCs that allows them to continue to intensify. Like something with the dynamics are different than the "typical" ERC. I also do not recall TCs intensifying like this while the secondary eyewall forms... This would be a fantastic research opportunity with the radar datasets from Irma and now Maria.

I am wondering if this is what happens in near zero shear environments. Storms like Floyd and Rita that underwent eyewall replacements and weakened also were undergoing about 15 kts of shear at the time. I almost wonder if the weakening is more shear related?

I like your hypothesis. ERC could lower the inertial stability and allow shear/ventilation to have a greater effect. But if shear is essentially zero, there remains little to cause the pressure to increase.

Meranti last year was a system that I was convinced was beginning eyewall replacement several times before it actually did. The METOP-A pass at the time is the one that really made me jump. 24 hours later, Meranti hadn't gone through eyewall replacement yet and was analyzed as a 170 kt super typhoon. I'm not sure that's what is going on here, but it is interesting to note.

[cjrciadt]

Me too talking with grandpa now on Island.

[johngaltfla]

Here comes all the CMG.

Even seeing hints of CDG as well. That looks close to T7.5.

Now we are talking super typhoon type numbers. Not good.

[sweetpea]

Just speechless...dear god this is crazy.