ATL: IRMA - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I don't know Brian,

Lets just say I don't feel real confident about the progressive plot of the models. Or should I say I don't like where they are heading.

[Steve]

GFS unless it turns in would affect New England or Canada on this run. <--- Edit to say it has a brush by with the outer banks and appears that it will threaten the Tidewater if it comes up.

This is the 330mb depiction which I think is roughly 5 miles up (below where most jets fly) . GFS believes the trailing storm will be the one with a farther west potential
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[AxaltaRacing24]

CMC is done

[Hurricaneman]

Landfall

Homestead...25 years later!!!

Dare I say it but for once the Canadian may be too weak

[stormlover2013]

Got plenty to watch for us, let's pray for the islands first

[sma10]

So what was the difference between the GFS and CMC runs? I'll be honest i have no idea. If you run thru the first 200 hours or so the upper air pattern looked very similar. Not sure why the drastic track difference.

[caneseddy]

Landfall

Homestead...25 years later!!!

That's a huge shift SW for CMC...and pretty much devastates South Florida and SW Florida

[Miami Storm Tracker]

But from the south not the East, and a lot longer of nasty conditions, on a much wider scale.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hello NC/VA

[joey]

Landfall

Homestead...25 years later!!!

That's a huge shift SW for CMC...caving to the Euro

what cat is that thanks

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, if the GFS continues this pace of run to run adjustments it should be in line with the Euro by about 12z today. Assuming that the Euro doesn't do anything crazy in about an hour of course.

[Hurricaneman]

Homestead...25 years later!!!

That's a huge shift SW for CMC...caving to the Euro

what cat is that thanks

maybe 3

[sma10]

But from the south not the East, and a lot longer of nasty conditions, on a much wider scale.

Yeah. Irma is a tad bigger than Andrew.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Homestead...25 years later!!!

That's a huge shift SW for CMC...caving to the Euro

what cat is that thanks

With that resolution a cat 3/4

[T'Bonz]

OK, as a North Carolinian, I don't LIKE this run. :/

[AxaltaRacing24]

OK, as a North Carolinian, I don't LIKE this run. :/

If today's trends continue. That run means you can start breathing by tomorrow night.

[caneseddy]

As expected the GFS is caving to the Euro solution...from the NE to NC/VA border...moving south

And now CMC shows a major hurricane impact into South Florida..following the Euro

[Miami Storm Tracker]

SMA,

Not to be sarcastic but yes you think so

[Langinbang187]

GFS has a super ridge over Canada this run lol

[T'Bonz]

Seems like someplace in the CONUS will get whacked by this beast storm.