ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Will the G-IV mission have data in time for tonight's 0z model suites?

It will not be flying on Sunday but it will on Monday. to feed the models for the Monday night 00z runs.

[cycloneye]

First mission from the Kermit P-3 Orion departs at 3 PM EDT from Barbados.Anyone wants to volunteer to post the data?

[Aric Dunn]

latest steering map.. ridging building in stronger now should see a pretty steady wsw to sw motion from now on.. some slight wobbles. toggle back and forth http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17522&y=7268&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[eastcoastFL]

lol I just a song pop in my head for possibility of irma pumping up the ridge as she grows in size and strength. yes im a little weird... lol

Pump up the ridge, pump it up
While you feet are stompin'
And the storm is pumpin'
Look at here the crowd is jumpin'
Pump it up a little more
Get the hurricane going through the trough door
Seek us that's where the hurricanes at
And you'll find out if you're too bad (off)

No wonder you stayed home last night on your birthday. You're plenty of fun all on your own lol! Keep pumpin!

[tolakram]

17:45z

[Jimsot]

Now you are going to be accused have not having enough 'empathy'.

lol I just a song pop in my head for possibility of irma pumping up the ridge as she grows in size and strength. yes im a little weird... lol

Pump up the ridge, pump it up
While you feet are stompin'
And the storm is pumpin'
Look at here the crowd is jumpin'
Pump it up a little more
Get the hurricane going through the trough door
Seek us that's where the hurricanes at
And you'll find out if you're too bad (off)

[Aric Dunn]

Latest microwave.. no signs of ERC could have happened overnight.. looks pretty healthy actually may see an eye clear out soon ?

[eastcoastFL]

Seems like IRMA is starting to grow in size. Looks at Western CDO expand:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Nhc has been on point so far. They said she was moving into warmer and areas of higher moisture so this was bound to start sooner or later.

As always we can speculate all day but following the nhc is always our best source of information.

[eastcoastFL]

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.




There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

I don't quite understand why anyone would want this. I'd much rather wishcast it far away from where I live. People should be careful what they wish for. Look at Houston right now! Who wants that?

A fast moving TS or cat 1 might be fun to sit through but nobody should be wishing to have a major cane head their way!

Absolutely. I know many members have experienced the aftermath of a hurricane or other natural disaster and there was a time (pre-Sandy), I loved the excitement and adrenaline of tracking a storm but I also never experienced recovering from one either. Stop with the -removed- please, unless you're wishing for Irma to spare all life and property and go safely out to sea. This is really scary for many of us. Honestly, I don't think my husband survive another disaster here and the thought of my little boy living in another disaster area makes me physically ill.

Sorry to get personal but sometime I think people need a gentle and very real reminder of what exactly they're wishing for.

I can relate. My daughter is 9 and when I woke up she had the weather channel on and a full report for me on Irma. She told me she's "concerned" and she also has all her baby dolls and their things packed up and ready to go already.

Edit: she also checked the first aid kit and told me to buy band-aids.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe miracle full recurve ?

[Kingarabian]

Latest microwave.. no signs of ERC could have happened overnight.. looks pretty healthy actually may see an eye clear out soon ?

[img]https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ATL/11L.IRMA/ssmi/85h/2degreeticks/20170903.1740.f15.x.85h.11LIRMA.100kts-969mb-178N-479W.90pc.jpg[/mg]

Core looks really dry on this microwave pass.

[Tuffy]

Aside from any human S.A.D. (Storm Avoidance/Attraction Disorder), there is a significant hurricane with model guidance and synoptic analysis that indicates a strong storm and a potential threat to population centers on various islands and CONUS. That should be enough to simply overlook the SAD stuff and discuss developing factors. I notice that we never hear any of that or the fussing from folks in places like the Virgins or Bahamas. Reality has a way of sticking with the facts.

Now, this one seems to have some growth/intensification issues for reasons that don't appear to have been fully grasped by the model guidance. Still, we are just now reaching the point where any real changes were ever expected. It's probably fair to say that we are JUST reaching the point where intensity forecasts become worse and track forecasts begin the recurve shifts that almost always persist through any Atlantic landfall or near miss. Frankly, NHC seems to have had a handle on this one all along with a track with less latitude change and less intensification to this point. From the southern track extreme, that has called for steady intensification and growth and increasingly SW tracks. That's not common for the intensity out here, but SOP for the models and NHC tracks.

Personally, I'd expect that early intensification and growth before 70W and little between there and the Gulf Stream. For the track, I'm simply not seeing what is going to "lift" Irma drastically to even the north. A "weakness" in the ridging? That would seem like a candidate for the forecasts to slip-slide to the west. Speed and latitude between 62 and 70W could change the continental factors on arrival, but there doesn't seem to be much that is obviously going to be that close. Hard to see a real West or North track out of the Bahamas, but can see a strong one there.

[WeatherGuesser]

maybe miracle full recurve ?

I'd like to see it hang a sharp right and go out to sea with no land interaction.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Yes, this again. While many posts are on the topic of it's current movement, not a single image or loop or floater of any kind to help those who come here looking for those things, just blanket statements.




There has also been waay too much -removed- on the blog recently. People state where they either want it to go/"expect" where to go and movement "trends" back with not only no proof, but more likely than not aim it towards where they live.

I don't quite understand why anyone would want this. I'd much rather wishcast it far away from where I live. People should be careful what they wish for. Look at Houston right now! Who wants that?

A fast moving TS or cat 1 might be fun to sit through but nobody should be wishing to have a major cane head their way!

Absolutely. I know many members have experienced the aftermath of a hurricane or other natural disaster and there was a time (pre-Sandy), I loved the excitement and adrenaline of tracking a storm but I also never experienced recovering from one either. Stop with the -removed- please, unless you're wishing for Irma to spare all life and property and go safely out to sea. This is really scary for many of us. Honestly, I don't think my husband survive another disaster here and the thought of my little boy living in another disaster area makes me physically ill.

Sorry to get personal but sometime I think people need a gentle and very real reminder of what exactly they're wishing for.

The way I see it if you're the person who wants to watch a category 5 it's best for the storm to stay out to sea anyway because then it can actually hold onto that strength.

I'm just a teapot tempest but I think that if I were a full size storm I would want to stay far away from land too. But what do I know...

[Alyono]

not used to seeing the EC flip between a major ridge and a major trough over Newfoundland. Not giving me much confidence in its solution beyond 5 days

[Kingarabian]

Maan these Euro and GFS runs are becoming irritating. I'm still holding out hope that they'll flip back to an OTS solution. My parents just went back to North Carolina for a 3 month "vacation" and we reside in Duplin county... So they would catch a lot of hurricane force winds if Irma hits from the south.

[Kingarabian]

Thanks for creating this thread Cycloneye. A lot easier to obtain recon information.

[wxmann_91]

not used to seeing the EC flip between a major ridge and a major trough over Newfoundland. Not giving me much confidence in its solution beyond 5 days

I recall seeing something similar with Matthew. The EC is not particularly stable with the N Atlantic pattern after ~7 days.

[Sciencerocks]

Looking at all the data I'd make the guess that this will be similar to Frances of 2004 but maybe somewhat stronger at landfall.

I don't think it is going to slow down and that will allow for it to make landfall in Florida.