ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 031941
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 03 20170903
193130 1327N 05806W 4846 06143 0338 -064 -257 044015 016 007 000 00
193200 1327N 05803W 4846 06140 0337 -061 -295 046015 015 005 001 00
193230 1328N 05801W 4844 06143 0336 -061 -286 047015 015 007 000 00
193300 1329N 05758W 4845 06141 0335 -061 -285 048015 015 005 000 00
193330 1329N 05756W 4845 06142 0335 -061 -286 047016 016 006 000 00
193400 1330N 05753W 4843 06143 0334 -061 -288 049016 017 008 000 00
193430 1331N 05751W 4845 06141 0334 -064 -293 046016 016 007 000 00
193500 1332N 05748W 4844 06141 0333 -065 -265 044016 016 007 000 00
193530 1333N 05746W 4844 06141 0333 -060 -279 051016 017 006 000 00
193600 1334N 05743W 4844 06141 0333 -057 -255 053017 017 009 000 00
193630 1335N 05741W 4845 06140 0333 -056 -260 053016 017 007 001 00
193700 1336N 05738W 4845 06140 0334 -053 -262 049015 015 010 000 00
193730 1337N 05736W 4846 06139 0333 -054 -249 045015 016 009 000 00
193800 1338N 05733W 4844 06140 0333 -056 -253 047016 017 008 000 00
193830 1338N 05731W 4845 06140 0333 -061 -264 040016 016 006 001 00
193900 1339N 05728W 4844 06141 0333 -065 -266 038016 016 007 001 00
193930 1340N 05726W 4845 06140 0333 -064 -272 037016 016 007 001 00
194000 1341N 05723W 4844 06141 0333 -066 -234 037017 018 010 000 00
194030 1342N 05721W 4844 06141 0333 -064 -221 039017 018 007 001 00
194100 1343N 05718W 4844 06140 0332 -065 -234 036019 019 009 000 00

[cycloneye]

The first mission to Irma is underway.Let's see how strong she really is.Follow all the missions in the Main Recon Thread (Data Only)

To have discussions about the data that the planes are collecting go to the Recon Discussion Thread

[Kingarabian]

Honestly was expecting Irma to look a lot more impressive at this point in time... She's not looking too hot this afternoon for a major hurricane.

Likely not a major hurricane right now.

[otowntiger]

Continued dry air problems judging by its appearance on microwave imagery.

Could be a bit of mid-level northerly shear as well--if you look at the convection on the edge of the cirrus canopy, some of it appears that it's blowing south.

yes. the models actually showed this but its mostly the steering mechanism that will point the direction where this is going right now.

Thanks for the replies! So Aric, theoretically it would begin strengthening again once it resumes a west northwest motion?

[floridasun78]

hurr hunter now leaving Barbados

[galaxy401]

I think some people need to realize that it's quite rare to have a major hurricane that far out at sea. The open Atlantic is never really that favorable even in active seasons.

[MacTavish]

I would expect Irma to start getting better organized in about 8-12 hours. Outflow is very impressive, no doubt the dry air will get cycled out especially over warmer SSTs

[Extratropical94]

I don't know if these maps have a high bias, but if they are accurate, there is an insane amount of fuel for Irma near the Bahamas.

[GeneratorPower]

Trying very hard not to be a drama king here. But this is setting up to be a big disaster.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 031951
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 04 20170903
194130 1344N 05716W 4844 06140 0332 -064 -219 039019 019 008 000 00
194200 1345N 05714W 4844 06139 0332 -065 -225 037019 020 008 001 00
194230 1346N 05711W 4843 06141 0331 -067 -225 036020 020 010 000 00
194300 1347N 05709W 4843 06140 0332 -067 -223 036019 019 010 000 00
194330 1348N 05706W 4843 06141 0331 -067 -230 037020 020 010 000 00
194400 1349N 05704W 4844 06139 0332 -068 -281 039019 020 009 001 00
194430 1350N 05701W 4844 06139 0332 -067 -323 039020 020 008 001 00
194500 1351N 05659W 4843 06141 0332 -068 -301 040020 020 010 000 00
194530 1352N 05656W 4844 06141 0333 -068 -268 040020 020 009 001 00
194600 1353N 05654W 4842 06143 0332 -067 -284 039020 020 009 001 00
194630 1354N 05651W 4843 06141 0333 -067 -300 038021 021 009 000 00
194700 1354N 05649W 4843 06141 0332 -069 -268 038022 022 009 000 00
194730 1355N 05646W 4843 06142 0332 -068 -234 038022 023 009 000 00
194800 1356N 05644W 4843 06141 0333 -067 -260 036022 022 009 000 00
194830 1357N 05642W 4843 06141 0333 -066 -255 035021 022 007 001 00
194900 1358N 05639W 4843 06141 0333 -065 -245 034021 021 009 000 00
194930 1359N 05637W 4842 06143 0333 -064 -262 032019 020 009 000 00
195000 1400N 05634W 4843 06142 0332 -065 -281 035020 020 010 000 00
195030 1401N 05632W 4842 06142 0332 -067 -287 036020 021 010 000 00
195100 1402N 05629W 4842 06142 0332 -068 -312 034021 022 010 000 00

[MetroMike]

I think some people need to realize that it's quite rare to have a major hurricane that far out at sea. The open Atlantic is never really that favorable even in active seasons.

I beg to differ. It is quite normal its just the the previous years before last it was more rare.

[cycloneye]

The first mission to Irma is underway.Let's see how strong she really is.Follow all the missions in the Main Recon Thread (Data Only)

To have discussions about the data that the planes are collecting go to the Recon Discussion Thread

[Langinbang187]

Honestly was expecting Irma to look a lot more impressive at this point in time... She's not looking too hot this afternoon for a major hurricane.

Likely not a major hurricane right now.

Agreed. I'd be very surprised if recon found cat 3 winds.

[knotimpaired]

931

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032001
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 05 20170903
195130 1403N 05627W 4844 06140 0332 -067 -317 036021 021 009 000 00
195200 1404N 05624W 4843 06141 0332 -068 -320 037020 021 008 000 00
195230 1405N 05622W 4841 06144 0332 -067 -338 036021 021 011 000 00
195300 1406N 05619W 4842 06142 0333 -066 -339 032022 022 009 000 00
195330 1407N 05617W 4843 06141 0333 -065 -311 030022 022 008 000 00
195400 1408N 05614W 4842 06143 0333 -065 -306 030023 023 008 000 00
195430 1408N 05612W 4843 06142 0333 -064 -304 028022 023 008 000 00
195500 1409N 05610W 4842 06143 0332 -064 -284 029022 023 008 000 00
195530 1410N 05607W 4843 06141 0332 -064 -308 028021 022 008 001 00
195600 1411N 05605W 4842 06143 0333 -063 -348 027021 021 009 000 00
195630 1412N 05602W 4843 06142 0333 -063 -365 027020 020 008 000 00
195700 1413N 05600W 4843 06142 0333 -063 -373 028019 019 009 000 00
195730 1414N 05557W 4842 06144 0333 -062 -379 031019 019 009 000 00
195800 1415N 05555W 4842 06143 0332 -063 -385 033020 020 009 000 00
195830 1416N 05552W 4842 06143 0333 -062 -391 033020 020 009 000 00
195900 1417N 05550W 4842 06143 0332 -061 -398 032021 022 009 000 00
195930 1418N 05547W 4841 06144 0332 -060 -401 035021 021 007 001 00
200000 1419N 05545W 4844 06140 0333 -059 -405 036021 021 009 000 00
200030 1420N 05542W 4841 06144 0332 -059 -409 036021 022 008 000 00
200100 1421N 05540W 4842 06142 0331 -057 -412 035022 022 008 000 00

[Chris_in_Tampa]

G-IV will be up Monday evening and Tuesday evening. Departs each day at 17:30Z (1:30pm EDT). G-IV got to Barbados around 3:30pm EDT today.

Radar data will be available:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... duct=radar
(Or my site, but I'm always afraid my site will crash if too many people visit it.)




"Sunday, 3 Sept. 2017

G-IV: The jet will ferry down to the islands to prepare for future flights around Hurricane Irma.

NOAA42: The P3 is tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center for a Tail Doppler Radar mission into Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 1900 UTC (3 PM ET) from Grantley Adams International Airport, Barbados. Two HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Monday, 4 Sept. 2017

NOAA42: The P3 is tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center for a Tail Doppler Radar mission into Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 0600 UTC (10 AM ET) from Grantley Adams International Airport, Barbados. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

G-IV: The G-IV is tasked by NHC for a synoptic surveillance mission around Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 1730 UTC (1:30 PM ET). NO HRD scientists will be on this flight.

NOAA42: The P3 is tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center for a Tail Doppler Radar mission into Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 2000 UTC (4 PM ET) from Grantley Adams International Airport, Barbados. Two HRD scientists will be on this flight."

From: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like some convective bursts are occurring now in the eyewall. The cirrus canopy is thickening, especially to the south. Assuming no significant dry air intrusions disrupt inner-core convection (which is a difficult assumption to make right now), I would wager this is the beginning of an intensification period. The 18Z HWRF also showed some significant intensification overnight tonight.

[Gustywind]

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
6:00 AM ECT SUN, SEP 3, 2017

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IRMA LOCATED ABOUT 945 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IRMA HAS ONCE AGAIN RETURNED TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 MPH AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER.

BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION, IRMA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH, AND THIS MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.

IF IRMA HOLDS CLOSELY TO THE FORECAST TRACK, THE ISLANDS WILL BE SPARED MOST OF THE DANGEROUS WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IF AFTER TURNING WEST-SOUTHWEST IT DOES NOT RETURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK, VERY HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AND MONDAY RESPECTIVELY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IRMA AND BE PREPARED TO EXECUTE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IF A WARNING IS REQUIRED ON MONDAY.

FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS/DALE DESTIN

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032011
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 06 20170903
200130 1421N 05537W 4842 06141 0331 -056 -413 035021 021 009 000 00
200200 1422N 05535W 4843 06141 0332 -055 -412 033022 022 010 000 00
200230 1423N 05532W 4842 06142 0332 -055 -410 032021 021 010 000 00
200300 1424N 05530W 4843 06140 0332 -056 -404 032019 020 010 000 00
200330 1425N 05528W 4841 06142 0331 -059 -376 039018 019 009 000 00
200400 1426N 05525W 4843 06140 0331 -062 -261 040015 016 010 000 00
200430 1427N 05523W 4843 06140 0330 -062 -275 039014 014 008 000 00
200500 1428N 05520W 4841 06141 0330 -061 -265 038015 015 009 000 00
200530 1429N 05518W 4841 06141 0330 -060 -277 039017 018 009 000 00
200600 1430N 05515W 4842 06140 0330 -060 -276 037017 017 009 000 00
200630 1431N 05513W 4842 06141 0330 -060 -297 039016 016 009 000 00
200700 1432N 05510W 4843 06140 0330 -060 -352 037015 015 010 000 00
200730 1433N 05508W 4842 06141 0330 -063 -374 035014 015 009 000 00
200800 1434N 05505W 4842 06140 0330 -060 -312 031014 014 010 000 00
200830 1434N 05503W 4841 06141 0330 -058 -373 032015 016 010 000 00
200900 1435N 05500W 4842 06140 0330 -057 -393 031016 016 009 000 00
200930 1436N 05458W 4842 06141 0330 -053 -395 030017 017 009 000 00
201000 1437N 05455W 4841 06141 0330 -053 -392 031017 017 008 001 00
201030 1438N 05453W 4843 06139 0329 -055 -389 035016 016 009 000 00
201100 1439N 05450W 4842 06140 0329 -056 -385 035016 017 010 000 00

[Gustywind]

The first mission to Irma is underway.Let's see how strong she really is.Follow all the missions in the Main Recon Thread (Data Only)

To have discussions about the data that the planes are collecting go to the Recon Discussion Thread

Great post amigo . Hope you're ok in PR, as Msbee and the others from the Leewards, BVI. Keep us informed too. I will keep you informed too
We should stay focus on IRMA's latest forecast.