ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Irma back to the WSW or SW track and will likely be a bit N of the 00z forecast point...

[otowntiger]

Irma back to the WSW or SW track and will likely be a bit N of the 00z forecast point...

do you mean a bit SOUTH of the forecast points?

[Blown Away]

Irma back to the WSW or SW track and will likely be a bit N of the 00z forecast point...

do you mean a bit SOUTH of the forecast points?

No that wobble will likely bring Irma just N of first forecast point...

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032021
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 07 20170903
201130 1440N 05447W 4841 06141 0329 -056 -382 037018 018 012 000 00
201200 1441N 05445W 4842 06139 0329 -054 -379 036017 017 010 000 00
201230 1442N 05442W 4842 06141 0330 -052 -376 036018 018 010 000 00
201300 1443N 05440W 4842 06140 0330 -051 -371 034017 017 011 000 00
201330 1444N 05437W 4843 06139 0330 -051 -312 036016 016 010 000 00
201400 1445N 05435W 4841 06142 0330 -051 -277 038017 018 011 000 00
201430 1446N 05432W 4843 06140 0331 -052 -245 036018 019 011 000 00
201500 1447N 05430W 4841 06143 0331 -058 -183 041019 019 011 000 00
201530 1447N 05427W 4842 06142 0331 -057 -134 041019 019 012 000 00
201600 1448N 05425W 4844 06139 0331 -054 -155 040017 017 011 000 00
201630 1449N 05422W 4842 06140 0331 -052 -185 039016 016 012 000 00
201700 1450N 05420W 4841 06142 0331 -053 -214 038015 015 012 000 00
201730 1451N 05417W 4843 06140 0331 -054 -202 037015 016 013 000 00
201800 1452N 05415W 4842 06141 0330 -051 -192 034016 016 013 000 00
201830 1453N 05412W 4841 06141 0330 -052 -166 030016 016 013 000 00
201900 1454N 05410W 4841 06142 0330 -051 -163 031016 016 012 000 00
201930 1455N 05407W 4843 06140 0330 -050 -147 032016 016 012 000 00
202000 1456N 05405W 4841 06142 0330 -050 -169 032016 017 014 000 00
202030 1457N 05402W 4841 06142 0330 -053 -165 029018 019 013 000 00
202100 1458N 05400W 4841 06142 0330 -053 -198 025021 022 014 000 00

[weathaguyry]

Irma did take a hiatus from the south movement for a while, so it wouldn't surprise me if it turns out a little north of the forecast points

[SFLcane]

Wobble here and there still generally a WSW right on track with the NHC

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032031
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 08 20170903
202130 1458N 05357W 4843 06140 0331 -052 -223 022022 022 013 000 00
202200 1459N 05355W 4841 06142 0330 -049 -293 021023 023 014 000 00
202230 1500N 05352W 4842 06142 0331 -048 -314 019022 023 012 001 00
202300 1501N 05350W 4841 06144 0331 -052 -223 023023 024 014 000 00
202330 1502N 05347W 4841 06142 0330 -052 -147 023025 025 013 001 00
202400 1503N 05345W 4841 06141 0330 -051 -139 019025 025 013 000 00
202430 1504N 05342W 4841 06141 0330 -050 -141 018025 026 016 000 00
202500 1505N 05340W 4841 06141 0330 -048 -134 021026 027 015 000 00
202530 1506N 05337W 4843 06139 0329 -045 -153 018026 027 013 001 00
202600 1507N 05335W 4842 06141 0330 -047 -155 021025 025 016 000 00
202630 1508N 05332W 4843 06140 0331 -047 -149 021024 026 016 001 00
202700 1509N 05330W 4843 06140 0330 -051 -113 016022 024 018 000 00
202730 1509N 05327W 4841 06141 0330 -050 -133 022023 024 020 000 00
202800 1510N 05325W 4841 06141 0329 -049 -123 021022 022 019 001 00
202830 1511N 05322W 4845 06137 0329 -050 -125 013021 022 018 000 00
202900 1512N 05320W 4844 06138 0330 -049 -138 004024 024 015 001 00
202930 1513N 05317W 4843 06139 0330 -048 -141 009022 023 016 000 00
203000 1514N 05315W 4843 06140 0331 -046 -125 011020 021 018 000 00
203030 1515N 05312W 4843 06140 0331 -046 -150 008022 023 019 000 00
203100 1516N 05310W 4843 06140 0331 -045 -147 009024 025 018 001 00

[Kingarabian]

[hipshot]

Just now watching the Smithsonian channel about the P3 NOAA aircraft that had a problem during Hugo. I used to be in a flight crew of a P3 in the Navy, pretty scary!!

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 032041
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 09 20170903
203130 1517N 05307W 4841 06143 0331 -043 -166 011025 026 017 001 00
203200 1518N 05305W 4843 06140 0331 -043 -161 013025 025 018 000 00
203230 1519N 05302W 4843 06139 0330 -044 -152 011025 025 019 001 00
203300 1519N 05259W 4843 06140 0330 -048 -141 007025 025 020 001 00
203330 1520N 05257W 4845 06137 0331 -053 -107 000027 028 020 001 00
203400 1521N 05254W 4843 06140 0331 -052 -108 359025 025 019 001 00
203430 1522N 05252W 4841 06142 0330 -053 -116 002026 027 019 000 00
203500 1523N 05249W 4841 06141 0330 -054 -127 003028 028 018 000 00
203530 1524N 05247W 4842 06140 0330 -054 -115 009027 027 020 000 00
203600 1525N 05244W 4842 06139 0329 -053 -107 008027 027 020 001 00
203630 1526N 05242W 4844 06136 0328 -052 -116 002027 027 019 000 00
203700 1527N 05239W 4844 06135 0328 -052 -117 358026 026 015 001 00
203730 1528N 05237W 4842 06137 0327 -050 -142 359026 026 016 000 00
203800 1529N 05234W 4844 06134 0327 -051 -131 359025 025 016 001 00
203830 1529N 05231W 4842 06136 0326 -048 -156 358025 025 017 000 00
203900 1530N 05229W 4844 06134 0325 -049 -191 357025 025 015 001 00
203930 1531N 05226W 4842 06136 0326 -051 -173 354024 024 015 001 00
204000 1532N 05224W 4842 06135 0325 -050 -183 357023 024 017 000 00
204030 1533N 05221W 4844 06133 0324 -049 -181 354021 022 014 001 00
204100 1534N 05219W 4842 06134 0324 -050 -263 355022 023 014 001 00

[Aric Dunn]

The question is not whether it wobbled today. Its how long dies it stay in wsw and west before any north component.. so dont worry about tje wobble the adjusted motion is still wsw through the last 12 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

Does the flight take off at 5 or is that when it'll reach Irma?

[eastcoastFL]

Trying very hard not to be a drama king here. But this is setting up to be a big disaster.

In what sense?

[GCANE]

Dry air intrusion appears to be over according to MIMIC-TPW.
Reconnecting and entraining moist air from the ITCZ.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm trying to get proactively prepared for Irma and remembered someone mentioning tension clips (plylox). Can anyone tell me where you can get them? They are harder to find than I anticipated

[psyclone]

I'm trying to get proactively prepared for Irma and remembered someone mentioning tension clips (plylox). Can anyone tell me where you can get them? They are harder to find than I anticipated

I'd look at home improvement places like home depot. absent that look online...with quick shipping of course..

[GCANE]

Core starting to snap in shape.

Warm anomaly centered about 200mb, relatively high.
Looks like its locally pushing up the tropopause.
About the same we saw with Harvey.

Cold, high lapse-rate anomoly nearly directly below it.

[Extratropical94]

Descending...

URNT15 KWBC 032051
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 10 20170903
204130 1535N 05216W 4844 06132 0324 -052 -184 347023 023 015 001 00
204200 1536N 05213W 4843 06132 0323 -052 -162 347023 024 016 000 00
204230 1537N 05211W 4841 06134 0322 -047 -283 352024 024 015 001 00
204300 1538N 05208W 4844 06129 0322 -047 -361 351024 024 016 000 00
204330 1539N 05206W 4844 06129 0321 -046 -388 351024 024 017 000 00
204400 1540N 05203W 4843 06131 0321 -045 -397 355025 025 016 001 00
204430 1540N 05200W 4844 06129 0322 -048 -398 350025 026 017 000 00
204500 1541N 05158W 4844 06129 0321 -044 -397 347024 025 018 000 00
204530 1542N 05155W 4849 06127 0326 -046 -394 349026 027 017 000 00
204600 1543N 05153W 4849 06135 0333 -047 -391 346027 027 015 001 00
204630 1544N 05150W 4846 06138 0334 -046 -389 345028 029 017 000 00
204700 1545N 05148W 4848 06133 0332 -047 -386 344028 028 017 000 00
204730 1546N 05146W 4910 06033 0325 -040 -383 344028 029 016 000 00
204800 1546N 05143W 5009 05874 0314 -029 -381 340027 028 016 000 00
204830 1547N 05140W 5117 05704 0301 -032 -331 333027 027 017 000 00
204900 1548N 05138W 5235 05523 0289 -026 -193 334029 030 020 000 00
204930 1548N 05135W 5334 05373 0279 -017 -157 335029 030 019 000 00
205000 1549N 05132W 5421 05243 0270 -007 -126 334027 027 019 001 00
205030 1549N 05130W 5522 05091 0054 +005 -116 336027 028 020 000 00
205100 1550N 05127W 5694 04841 0046 +023 -101 335030 031 020 000 00

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Does the flight take off at 5 or is that when it'll reach Irma?

They were scheduled to depart at 3pm EDT. (they took off about 10 minutes after that) They were scheduled to arrive around the center at 5pm EDT. I would guess they might be around the center at 5:20pm EDT if they enter from SW quadrant, but I don't know the pattern they will fly.

Plan of the Day:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

How to Read Plan of the Day:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutreconpod.shtml

[GCANE]

Lots of short-duration towers firing on the SE quad.