ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Are any Recon missions planned?

Not yet.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I agree. I have been getting fresh northeast wind 20 mph + all day long after the frontal boundary came through earlier this morning. It indeed feels like an autumn-type front. It is quite abnormal indeed to see this at this time of year in late July.

Also, the dry air may eventually put the shazaam on 98L. The system has a well defined circulation, but satellite imagery is showing that the dry air filtering down from the north may eventually keep this from really getting organized effectively. It still is moving southeast, seemingly doing its best to move away from the dry air.

[NDG]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What's crazy is another strong front is supposed to make it all the way down to the coast next weekend as well. If this is what all the pre season hype about homebrew and gulf action was about will take it every time. Going to be tough to get anything going with this kind of pattern the gulf is in, regarding dry air and shear.

[northjaxpro]

What's crazy is another strong front is supposed to make it all the way down to the coast next weekend as well. If this is what all the pre season hype about homebrew and gulf action was about will take it every time. Going to be tough to get anything going with this kind of pattern the gulf is in, regarding dry air and shear.

Yes, I agree with you Cyclone Mike.

[psyclone]

Very strange to see a south eastward moving spin...doesn't look like it will have an opportunity to amount to much. I can attest to the intensity of this front as I'm taking a much deserved break from the Florida summer in northern ohio where our lows this morning were in the low to mid 50's...we could see out breath last night and it felt quite cold

[HurricaneBelle]

The low is now in range of the Tampa Bay radar and seems to now be moving E/ESE directly toward the Tampa Bay/Sarasota area. It's spinning a heavy band of storms NE toward Pinellas County at the moment.

[Steve]

What's crazy is another strong front is supposed to make it all the way down to the coast next weekend as well. If this is what all the pre season hype about homebrew and gulf action was about will take it every time. Going to be tough to get anything going with this kind of pattern the gulf is in, regarding dry air and shear.

If it repeats once or twice, take note of where the troughs are centered as that's where the high pressure will probably set up on the rebound and transition to the next pattern. It also will give us a hint of the alleyway to come later.

[NDG]

What's crazy is another strong front is supposed to make it all the way down to the coast next weekend as well. If this is what all the pre season hype about homebrew and gulf action was about will take it every time. Going to be tough to get anything going with this kind of pattern the gulf is in, regarding dry air and shear.

Yes, I agree with you Cyclone Mike.

Don't forget 2004, is what I keep saying, like many other years that other posters have mentioned that despite deep troughs across the Eastern US during late and early August it does not mean that this pattern will stay like this during the heart of the hurricane season.
The Atlantic has been strong this year.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A small non-tropical low pressure area located about 140 miles west
of Tampa, Florida, is producing a limited area of thunderstorm
activity as it drifts southeastward. This system has some chance
to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics on Monday before
it moves inland over the central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and
into the western Atlantic by Wednesday. Regardless of development,
the low is expected to enhance locally heavy rainfall across
portions of central and northeastern Florida during the next couple
of days. Please see additional information from your local National
Weather Service Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks really good...This thing if it can hold its convection may come out of the blue with advisories tomorrow morning.

[TheStormExpert]

What's crazy is another strong front is supposed to make it all the way down to the coast next weekend as well. If this is what all the pre season hype about homebrew and gulf action was about will take it every time. Going to be tough to get anything going with this kind of pattern the gulf is in, regarding dry air and shear.

Yes, I agree with you Cyclone Mike.

Don't forget 2004, is what I keep saying, like many other years that other posters have mentioned that despite deep troughs across the Eastern US during late and early August it does not mean that this pattern will stay like this during the heart of the hurricane season.
The Atlantic has been strong this year.

Did the troughs that carved into the Eastern U.S. back in the summer of 2004 dig this far south into central FL?

[northjaxpro]

Well, considering the dry air 98L is battling against, I am a bit surprised NHC did not lower the percentage for development.

I would be quite surprised if this ever develops more so than it is now. Initially, I thought 98L had a decent shot at further developing earlier today. However, seeing how strong this frontal system is as the day progressed, that thought quickly went away. The front is already in Central Florida, and the dry and stable air will infiltrate into 98L more than likely.

[tropicwatch]

It looks to be rebuilding convection right now and unless it starts separating from the frontal boundary. I think it might go ashore before it even has a chance to organize.

[robbielyn]

Yes, I agree with you Cyclone Mike.

Don't forget 2004, is what I keep saying, like many other years that other posters have mentioned that despite deep troughs across the Eastern US during late and early August it does not mean that this pattern will stay like this during the heart of the hurricane season.
The Atlantic has been strong this year.

Did the troughs that carved into the Eastern U.S. back in the summer of 2004 dig this far south into central FL?

yep charlie case in point

[Aric Dunn]

I mean all in all its not looking bad for what it is.. small ( though still attached to the trough) radar is slightly improving satellite is not all that impressive until you zoom in and notice the small defined circ. sub trop looks like more of a possibility if it does anyhting at first then cross the state and maybe get going.

[Steve]

Day 2 in MJO 7, and there is a spinning surface low in the Gulf and possibly another weak one forming in the NW Gulf tomorrow or Tuesday. Looking at the various MJO model runs, they show everything from a flip back into 6, some go back in the circle, one or two go to 8, and 1 goes to 4.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Weather flow site near the mouth of Tampa bay reported a non thunderstorm wind gust to 48 mph. Some really gusty winds earlier before the storms but very quiet and calm right now where I am.

[northjaxpro]

Aric, no doubt 98L is a very small, but well developed circulation. It is doing its best to starve off the dry air. However, time is not on its side, plus it will cross the Central Florida peninsula during the next 12'-18 hours.

Will have to wait and see how much of 98L will be left once it energizes on the Atlantic side.

[Hammy]

Dry air to the north looks like it's sliding southeast and isn't getting much closer (if at all) to the circulation, so if this can hold together by this time tomorrow I think it's got a decent shot of getting named. It would be nice to see five storms before August 1 as it hasn't happened in 12 years.