ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

200 chi is looking very fertile for up- lift over the period.



A this point GFS is going with the big amplification of the ridge well the into the eastern
region..

[abajan]

06Z GFS blows this up into an intense hurricane (Cat 4?) east of the northern Bahamas and Florida, at hour 234:

[cajungal]

06Z GFS blows this up into an intense hurricane (Cat 4?) east of the northern Bahamas and Florida, at hour 234:

Wow and almost close to the same date as Andrew.

[abajan]

06Z GFS blows this up into an intense hurricane (Cat 4?) east of the northern Bahamas and Florida, at hour 234:

http://i.imgur.com/Gd2yt28.png

Wow and almost close to the same date as Andrew.

Moreover, the CMC places it (albeit weaker) at almost the same location just six hours later:



Uncanny!

[blp]

UKmet is onboard now. So we got good consensus from the models.

Hi my friend. Do you have the graphic or Text?

Hello Luis, here it is. Looks good for a first run.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like the models are hinting at stronger Western Atlantic ridging in the long-range when just yesterday they were showing not much ridging. Just goes to show you can't make any definitive statements on where this might go if it develops in the long-range.

I wonder what the likelihood is of the pattern changing. It seems like the wet weather associated with the trough over the northern Gulf Coast has been very persistent. That troughing seems likely to fill in eventually. Maybe it fills in and pattern flips just in time for our new system. In short, did we burn out our protective trough pattern during a period of no cyclones, only to be left vulnerable when season peaks?

[Blown Away]

Amazing how many modeled storms travel across Atlantic and make sharp turn just before Florida... Rarely do we see a W bound modeled storm make it into GOM after traveling N of the islands... Ike's track was a once in a generation track...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

One major factor is the timing and placement of this potential system if they are to be trusted. Day 10 will be Wednesday and pretty much all summer long the gulf coast and southeast has been having a trough affecting us every 7 days but they have been on the weekends. This could be potentially between that time period of the trough moving in and high weakening. Day 10 Euro and gfs maps show it pretty well. On euro high is centered over mid Atlantic while GFS shows it over Nova Scotia, difference between east coast and gulf system. Euro on day 10 shows next shortwave system organizing over Kansas. Expect there to be a lot of flip flopping in the coming days. Don't believe either this far out so will just have to watch and wait.

[RL3AO]

500 mb anomaly model trend is towards more ridging next week. It's a disturbing trend.

[SFLcane]

Disturbing trend we also thought with 99L.. $$ trof is back in full force in 3-4 days on the models.

Edit..atleast that's the hope.

[Alyono]

GFS weaker and a bit north through 54 hours

[RL3AO]

GFS weaker and a bit north through 54 hours

Also a more realistic development this run, though still too fast in all likelihood.

[RL3AO]

Just to the ENE of the 6z run.

[ColdMiser123]

Biggest difference with the 12z GFS is that the forward speed has slowed again. Virtually identical in intensity now between the 0z/6z run and the 12z run at hour 90.

[RL3AO]

The central Atlantic weakness allows it to gain some latitude before being turned west again by the building ridge. A worrying pattern.

[Alyono]

The central Atlantic weakness allows it to gain some latitude before being turned west again by the building ridge. A worrying pattern.

should be enough to allow it to clear the islands, however

[Alyono]

looks to easily clear the islands. Not sure this is going to make it past 70W. Too much of a weakness

Now, GFS is probably wrong on the pattern

[Alyono]

looks to be moving almost NNW now. May not even reach Bermuda

eh, turning back WNW. JUST missed getting picked up by the weakness

[RL3AO]

looks to easily clear the islands. Not sure this is going to make it past 70W. Too much of a weakness

Now, GFS is probably wrong on the pattern

Looks like quite the bifurcation point.

[Alyono]

looks to easily clear the islands. Not sure this is going to make it past 70W. Too much of a weakness

Now, GFS is probably wrong on the pattern

Looks like quite the bifurcation point.

it came very close to getting caught by the weakness and turned east of 60W. Should have ridging to carry it to around 70W now