ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

:uarrow: That ASCAT shows that 92L is as close to being closed off as it can be. This may be a TD already.

Agreed. We may have our first east Atlantic long tracker this season.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: That ASCAT shows that 92L is as close to being closed off as it can be. This may be a TD already.

I wouldn't say that yet dude it has some way to go to develop a good LLC and most of the spin appears to be at mid levels for now

Plus winds are still pretty light--only 15kt on that pass.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

:uarrow: That ASCAT shows that 92L is as close to being closed off as it can be. This may be a TD already.

I wouldn't say that yet dude it has some way to go to develop a good LLC and most of the spin appears to be at mid levels for now

Plus winds are still pretty light--only 15kt on that pass.

Yeah this will take some time to develop down to the Lower levels

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: That ASCAT shows that 92L is as close to being closed off as it can be. This may be a TD already.

I wouldn't say that yet dude it has some way to go to develop a good LLC and most of the spin appears to be at mid levels for now

Plus winds are still pretty light--only 15kt on that pass.

I think winds will be stronger a bit later as this reflects at surface level. The way it is organizing, I think this will be a TD quicker than you may realize. Just my thoughts. I will stick my neck out on this one. Sometimes we have to do that!
:

[Blown Away]

Near or a little WNW of 13.5N/29.4 W... Not bad looking invest...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I wouldn't say that yet dude it has some way to go to develop a good LLC and most of the spin appears to be at mid levels for now

Plus winds are still pretty light--only 15kt on that pass.

I think winds will be stronger a bit later as this reflects at surface level. The way it is organizing, I think this will be a TD quicker than you may realize. Just my thoughts.

It is certainly possible but that is yet to be seen its now cast time though so who knows and NHC update coming any minute

[gatorcane]

Up to 30/40:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less favorable for development by this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[SFLcane]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

[caneseddy]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

Gert ran into "King Tutt"and survived.; look at her now.

This is shaping to be a western based season where storms don't get going until past 60 West.

[northjaxpro]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

Gert ran into "King Tutt"and survived.; look at her now.

This is shaping to be a western based season where storms don't get going until past 60 West.

That has already been the case for the most part to this juncture in the North Atlantic basin.

[sma10]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

Historically speaking, delayed development can be a very bad thing for the CONUS, something people often dismiss or forget.

[Blown Away]

If I joined Storm2k today my username would be "Less Favorable"...

[northjaxpro]

Well, NHC increased the odds for development in the short term in the latest TWO. They also mentioned how the system has become a bit better organized as well. So, I am not being far-fetched with rationalization that this could become a TD quite sooner than some anticipated earlier.

[caneseddy]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

Historically speaking, delayed development can be a very bad thing for the CONUS, something people often dismiss or forget.

Yep, 2005 is the perfect example....all the major storms that hit the US formed west of 60 degrees with the exception of Dennis.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

Historically speaking, delayed development can be a very bad thing for the CONUS, something people often dismiss or forget.

Yep, 2005 is the perfect example....all the major storms that hit the US formed west of 60 degrees with the exception of Dennis.

Correct and it's a wait and see game ... there is alot happening in the atmosphere these MDR systems will be hard to predict

[sma10]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

Historically speaking, delayed development can be a very bad thing for the CONUS, something people often dismiss or forget.

Yep, 2005 is the perfect example....all the major storms that hit the US formed west of 60 degrees with the exception of Dennis.

Andrew, Camille, Katrina, Labor Day ... all either formed or intensified past 70 degrees (in Andrew's case was just a weak TS until 65W).

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Historically speaking, delayed development can be a very bad thing for the CONUS, something people often dismiss or forget.

Yep, 2005 is the perfect example....all the major storms that hit the US formed west of 60 degrees with the exception of Dennis.

Andrew, Camille, Katrina, Labor Day ... all either formed or intensified past 70 degrees (in Andrew's case was just a weak TS until 65W).

Nice analysis now let's get back to tracking 92L

[jlauderdal]

Yea another short lived TD or TS in the works it seems before running into king Tutt

Historically speaking, delayed development can be a very bad thing for the CONUS, something people often dismiss or forget.

excellent point...very dangerous when systems form west of 60..bigger fanfare for the monsters in the open atlantic but the closer in storms yield far more effects

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2017081518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 314W, 20, 1012, LO

[Frank2]

My Calgary friends mentioned near-freezing low temps this morning - the troughs are soon to come...