ATL: TEN - Models

[jlauderdal]

Oh, if I only had a dollar every time the Canadian blasted SFL...

gfs would be even more money..

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro already showing a more defined vorticity versus 00z.

[Layten Holland]

Models are seeming rather certain that Invest 92L will develop, with the percentage possibilities for 92L on a consensus of 73% for the 5 days period.Seeing this kind of reminds me of Fred in 2015, except this one will head west or west-northwest with time. Modelling certainly seems to be suggesting a hurricane is likely in the long run, with a fairly decent consensus suggesting it will head out to see after rounding the ridge. If this does become our first major of the season, which may be possible, it certainly bears watching just in case it does decide to make a run at the coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

96 hours and 92L is fighting the King TUTT. If it makes it through to the Bahamas we may see a blowup at 120 hours and beyond.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... More defined than 00z and N of DR at @120 hours... Seems to be on WNW track towards SE Bahamas... Should be passing King Tutt going forward, let's see if conditions improve...

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... Still a TW at 144 hours and little more defined than 00z... Moving just N of W into SE Bahamas...

[SouthFLTropics]

12z EURO... More defined than 00z and N of DR at @120 hours... Seems to be on WNW track towards SE Bahamas... Should be passing King Tutt going forward, let's see if conditions improve...

Looks like the TUTT did 92L in. Not much left at 144 hours. I'm a little suspect of this. If Gert survived then why wouldn't a more defined 92L survive. I think we will have to wait and see what kind of condition 92L is in when it is north of the Greater Antilles before we get an idea of what potential it may have.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... TW into N Cuba/Straits/SFL towards GOM at 168 hours, slightly more defined than 00z.. Seems 92L's energy will be moving in the area of SFL as a TW in @7-8 days...

12z Euro says maybe no worries for CONUS through August...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z EURO... TW into N Cuba/Straits/SFL towards GOM at 168 hours, slightly more defined than 00z.. Seems 92L's energy will be moving in the area of SFL as a TW in @7-8 days...

This will need to be watched down the road for potential impacts to the northern islands

[SouthFLTropics]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the EURO bring 92L back to life in the Bahamas on future runs. The models have frequently been dropping storms in the mid range only to bring them back a few days later. When 92L is above PR will be the time to revisit it for any possible impacts to the CONUS.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the 12z Navgem.




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[TheStormExpert]

If there is anything left. I know wind shear is constantly changing but that is one GINORMOUS wall of shear currently located north of the Eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

[Bocadude85]

We just went through this with Gert...the models dropped development and then a few days later started picking up on development again once north of Caribbean.

[SouthFLTropics]

We just went through this with Gert...the models dropped development and then a few days later started picking up on development again once north of Caribbean.

Exactly...Let's see what 92L looks like after it moves out of the SAL and pass the wall of shear. Like I said earlier, Gerts wave survived it and went on to form...and it didn't look near as good as 92L does right now.

[OuterBanker]

91L son of Franklin
92L daughter of Gert

Really weird how models are depicting each isn't it.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET starts to develop this east of Bahamas and turns it west. Wasn't the UKMET the first to show Gert's redevelopment east of the Bahamas?

[hd44]

92l looks like a long term risk as shown by the ukmet. I would closely watch this wave. It will have to work its way through an ull down the road... but so did Andrew. Its also following Andrew stride for stride. Scary parallels as shown by the Ukmet with the bend west at day 7.

[Steve H.]

Remember that Andrew had weakened to a weak depression prior to getting under that building ridge to it's northwest...then traveled to the w/wsw. Not putting much stock in the models yet...

[Blown Away]

12Z UKMET starts to develop this east of Bahamas and turns it west. Wasn't the UKMET the first to show Gert's redevelopment east of the Bahamas?

The Ukmet tracks for all 3 look very reasonable per climatology, the real question is intensity...